Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[AnnularCane]

Hi Daniel! *waving*

[Cyclenall]

A hurricane in 36 hours sounds good to me. The faster the better. So far everything is going the way I expected it to go, including Daniel staying a TD on the 2nd discussion.

Hello Daniel, become a powerful monster as soon as possible .

[wxmann_91]

Daniel is a large system and is loosely organized. The inner core will take time to organize, no doubt, so NHC may be too bullish initially, it will take at least 36-48 hr IMO. However, once the core does get organized, I agree that it will likely strengthen rapidly. I do not foresee a Cat 5, but if it stays at a low enough latitude (which it will do if it takes time to organize), this might end up quite a long-track storm.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST!

Here is my five-day prediction:

Current - 12.4/111.2 - 1004mb - 40mph
6 hrs - 12.5/112.7 - 999mb - 50mph
12 hrs - 12.5/113.7 - 985mb - 70mph
24 hrs - 12.6/115.5 - 973mb - 100mph
36 hrs - 12.5/117.2 - 954mb - 125mph
48 hrs - 12.6/119.1 - 958mb - 115mph
60 hrs - 12.7/120.5 - 950mb - 125mph
72 hrs - 12.8/122.2 - 943mb - 140mph
96 hrs - 13.1/125.0 - 954mb - 120mph
120 hrs - 13.4/129.3 - 968mb - 105mph

[Cyclenall]

My current thoughts on this system in %:

New % chance for Tropical Storm Daniel to become a:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 84%
Major Hurricane: 32%
Category 4 Hurricane: 4.5%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1.5%

New % chance that Tropical Storm Daniel will strengthen:

Slowly: 52%
Steady: 80%
Quickly: 80%
Rapidly: 66%
Wilma type Rapidly: 0.15%

New % chance that Tropical Storm Daniel will weaken:

Slowly: 3%
Steady: 2%
Quickly: 0.01%
Rapidly: 0.001%

[bombarderoazul]

It could become a hurricane in less than two days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060717 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060717 1800 060718 0600 060718 1800 060719 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 112.3W 12.4N 114.2W 12.3N 115.9W 12.1N 117.5W
BAMM 12.4N 112.3W 12.5N 114.2W 12.3N 116.0W 12.1N 117.7W
LBAR 12.4N 112.3W 12.4N 114.3W 12.4N 116.3W 12.3N 118.7W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS 60KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060719 1800 060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 119.1W 12.7N 121.5W 13.3N 123.8W 14.5N 126.4W
BAMM 12.3N 119.3W 12.9N 122.0W 13.4N 124.4W 14.9N 126.6W
LBAR 12.1N 121.0W 12.1N 125.0W 11.2N 128.1W 10.8N 129.8W
SHIP 65KTS 70KTS 67KTS 62KTS
DSHP 65KTS 70KTS 67KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 112.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 110.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 107.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

[Cyclenall]

Daniel is a weird looking TS. He looks like a Sun Dog .

[whereverwx]

Well, here we go again. Another one for the Pacific.

[AnnularCane]

Anybody else seeing a tiny smiley face in there?

[cycloneye]

426
WTPZ45 KNHC 172032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED ABOUT THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED AND COMPRISED
OF DEEPER CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS...AND AN ADT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 41 KT FROM UW CIMSS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL WESTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AT
270/09. THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR DANIEL WILL BE A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN FACT...A
COUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN
THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 72
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE
ALLOWING DANIEL TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING.
THIS ALONG WITH NEGLIGIBLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND A WARM OCEAN SHOULD
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFS DOES SHOW
SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS BEYOND 24 HOURS BUT I
WOULD RATHER SEE THE PRESENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THIS TO BE A
FACTOR. THERE IS SEEMINGLY NO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO RESTRICT
THIS CYCLONE...AND THIS PHILOSOPHY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH TAKES DANIEL TO A STRONG CAT TWO HURRICANE IN 3
DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 70 KT FROM
SHIPS...96 KT FROM THE GFDL...AND 117 KT FROM THE FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH PEAK THE INTENSITY AT OR NEAR 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.4N 112.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.4N 114.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.4N 116.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.4N 117.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 12.4N 119.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 12.7N 122.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 13.2N 124.7W 95 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 14.0N 128.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART

[WindRunner]

AND 117 KT FROM THE FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE

Hmmm . . . take note of that - a Cat 4 call from the FSUE. It'll be interesting to see if that plays out . . .

[bombarderoazul]

Daniel could become a Monster.

[senorpepr]

Links are now up on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page at

http://tropicalupdates.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdate.nhcwx.com/epac.htm

Links are updated to reflect the upgrade to Daniel.

[whereverwx]

This system has a pretty good chance at becoming a hurricane, IMO.

[cycloneye]

408
WTPZ45 KNHC 180236
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006

THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DISPLAY ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES
AND DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM. TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR 3.0/3.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45 KT.

THE STORM CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK AT 270/10. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
WESTWARD...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AND
POSSIBLY BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
AFTER 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALONG 125W AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW DANIEL TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN THE
LATER PERIODS.

BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
A BLEND OF SHIPS... GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. THE FSU
SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORECASTING A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE PEAKS AT 75 KT AS A RESULT OF MORE STABLE AIR-MASS ALONG
THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 12.3N 114.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 12.3N 115.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 12.3N 117.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 12.3N 118.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 12.4N 120.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 129.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA


With every advisory Daniel slowly gets more close to hurricane status now at 45kts.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Daniel is strengthening at a quick rate! Over night this will possibly get close to about 60 kts. Here are my numbers:

Tropical Storm - 100%
Hurricane - 85%
Major Hurricane - 50%
Cat-5 - 2%
Disappating in the Next 24 hrs - 1%

[Jim Cantore]

Is it just me or is Daniel forming an eye?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat.irW5.gif

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh I hope not, then the NHC can just call this a hurricane.

[Jim Cantore]

Aka this thing is exploding