99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does anyone have a model run image showing where they think this is going?

thanks. This looks like it will be heading for the Caribbean. I doubt the LBAR will be right with that strong ridge to the north. I'm betting we will see it go somewhere in between the BAMM and BAMD scenarios.

[Thunder44]

The NHC might be issuing some STDS by tomorrow night or the day after tomorrow.

There's no need for STDS, it's way out in Atlantic and no threat to land. TWO will cover it. If they decide to upgrade, they will just issue advisories.

[ronjon]

99L...Hmmm...kinda of reminds me of another C storm.

A tropical wave emerged from western Africa on 4 August. Radiosonde data from Dakar showed that this wave was accompanied by an easterly jet streak of around 55 kt near the 650 mb level. The wave also produced surface pressure falls on the order of 5 mb over 24 h near the west coast of Africa. On satellite images this system was not particularly impressive just after crossing the coast, since it had only a small area of associated deep convection. As the wave progressed rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic, the cloud pattern gradually became better organized, with cyclonic turning becoming more evident in the low clouds. The first
center position estimates were given by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) in the vicinity of 9-10ºN, 47ºW at 2345 UTC 7 August, although at that time the system was still too weak to classify by the Dvorak technique. The first
Dvorak T-numbers were assigned 24 h later, when the system was centered near 11ºN, 55ºW. Curved banding of the deep convection became better defined over the ensuing 12 h, and this, along with surface observations from the southern Windward Islands, indicated that a tropical
depression had formed by 1200 UTC 9 August, centered about 100 n mi south-southeast of Barbados.

[RattleMan]

STDS?

Special Tropical Disturbance Statement.

[bucman1]

you don't mean Charlie,do you?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 10:30 TWO should be interesting.

[Grease Monkey]

Thanks RattleMan.

[HurricaneHunter914]

99L...Hmmm...kinda of reminds me of another C storm.

A tropical wave emerged from western Africa on 4 August. Radiosonde data from Dakar showed that this wave was accompanied by an easterly jet streak of around 55 kt near the 650 mb level. The wave also produced surface pressure falls on the order of 5 mb over 24 h near the west coast of Africa. On satellite images this system was not particularly impressive just after crossing the coast, since it had only a small area of associated deep convection. As the wave progressed rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic, the cloud pattern gradually became better organized, with cyclonic turning becoming more evident in the low clouds. The first
center position estimates were given by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) in the vicinity of 9-10ºN, 47ºW at 2345 UTC 7 August, although at that time the system was still too weak to classify by the Dvorak technique. The first
Dvorak T-numbers were assigned 24 h later, when the system was centered near 11ºN, 55ºW. Curved banding of the deep convection became better defined over the ensuing 12 h, and this, along with surface observations from the southern Windward Islands, indicated that a tropical
depression had formed by 1200 UTC 9 August, centered about 100 n mi south-southeast of Barbados.

PLEASE don't be another Charley. My house will not hold through another Charley. And the ridge is in a good position for a Florida hit. Not only that SSTs in 99L invest area are warm enough for tropical development and if it can stay at that level until it gets into the Caribbean, then we may have a monster on our hands.

[RattleMan]

99L...Hmmm...kinda of reminds me of another C storm.

A tropical wave emerged from western Africa on 4 August. Radiosonde data from Dakar showed that this wave was accompanied by an easterly jet streak of around 55 kt near the 650 mb level. The wave also produced surface pressure falls on the order of 5 mb over 24 h near the west coast of Africa. On satellite images this system was not particularly impressive just after crossing the coast, since it had only a small area of associated deep convection. As the wave progressed rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic, the cloud pattern gradually became better organized, with cyclonic turning becoming more evident in the low clouds. The first
center position estimates were given by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) in the vicinity of 9-10ºN, 47ºW at 2345 UTC 7 August, although at that time the system was still too weak to classify by the Dvorak technique. The first
Dvorak T-numbers were assigned 24 h later, when the system was centered near 11ºN, 55ºW. Curved banding of the deep convection became better defined over the ensuing 12 h, and this, along with surface observations from the southern Windward Islands, indicated that a tropical
depression had formed by 1200 UTC 9 August, centered about 100 n mi south-southeast of Barbados.

That's Charley, right?

EDIT: I am too late, bucman1 already got it.

[ronjon]

you don't mean Charlie,do you?

Bingo!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Charley-The worst hurricane to hit Florida since Andrew.

[Extremeweatherguy]

99L...Hmmm...kinda of reminds me of another C storm.

A tropical wave emerged from western Africa on 4 August. Radiosonde data from Dakar showed that this wave was accompanied by an easterly jet streak of around 55 kt near the 650 mb level. The wave also produced surface pressure falls on the order of 5 mb over 24 h near the west coast of Africa. On satellite images this system was not particularly impressive just after crossing the coast, since it had only a small area of associated deep convection. As the wave progressed rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic, the cloud pattern gradually became better organized, with cyclonic turning becoming more evident in the low clouds. The first
center position estimates were given by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) in the vicinity of 9-10ºN, 47ºW at 2345 UTC 7 August, although at that time the system was still too weak to classify by the Dvorak technique. The first
Dvorak T-numbers were assigned 24 h later, when the system was centered near 11ºN, 55ºW. Curved banding of the deep convection became better defined over the ensuing 12 h, and this, along with surface observations from the southern Windward Islands, indicated that a tropical
depression had formed by 1200 UTC 9 August, centered about 100 n mi south-southeast of Barbados.

PLEASE don't be another Charley. My house will not hold through another Charley. And the ridge is in a good position for a Florida hit. Not only that SSTs in 99L invest area are warm enough for tropical development and if it can stay at that level until it gets into the Caribbean, then we may have a monster on our hands.

Luckily for FL, and for most of my family that lives there, it looks like the ridge to the north should *hopefully* hold and keep this system away from it. What I'm hoping for is another Emily (but weaker) that stays south of the U.S. mainland.

[Bluefrog]

crap crap crap

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok.... I'm gona for about 6-8 hours and now this. Where did this come from?

[HurricaneHunter914]

You know whats weird? So far this year is kinda like 2004 but instead Alberto is like Bonnie hitting the big bend and Beryl is like Alex scraping the U.S Coast. Lets hope this potential "Chris" won't be a Charley.

[bucman1]

Rattleman,

We both got it and we all will need to keep our eyes on this as conditions become more favorable for developement.

[NYCHurr06]

Charley-The worst hurricane to hit Florida since Andrew.

To hit the Punta Gorda area...other people might think differently for their area... Frances, Katrina, Wilma

[Opal storm]

This thing is all the way out in the eastern Atlantic (hasn't even developed yet by the way) and you guys are already talkng about where in the U.S this will be a threat?

[Cyclenall]

That's Charley, right?

EDIT: I am too late, bucman1 already got it.

That's Charley he is talking about. This invest reminds me of Charley as well. It shouldn't do the same thing though.

[NYCHurr06]

Ok.... I'm gona for about 6-8 hours and now this. Where did this come from?