Time to Revise Those 2006 Season Predictions!

[Grease Monkey]

Based on the fact that nothing seems to make sense this season, I'm going to predict:

19/10/5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the fact that nothing seems to make sense this season, I'm going to predict:

19/10/5

Never has happen before with out August. Not likely this year.

[WxGuy1]

You can make analogs, but I'd still add one or two storms on top of any similar season given the events of the past few years. By "events", I mean storms in the central or eastern Atlantic that, IMO, are now being named when they probably wouldn't have in the past. I think there's a very good chance that some of the tropical cyclones that developed from stagnant upper-level lows towards the end of last season may not have been addressed by NHC had they occurred in the 30's, 40's, etc. It seems that we've seen more of these storms be given names than what I remember from the 90s.

I haven't looked at enough data to given specific numbers, so I'll refrain from hunch-casting

[RQSTR]

former 23/14/9 (I was a fool!)
now 9/5/1

[Downdraft]

Was 18/9/6 Now 10/6/3 August 2/1/0 September 6/4/2 October 2/1/1
November 0/0/0

[TampaFl]

Original prediction - 18/8/6


Revised predicition - 14/6/3

Quite a change given the season so far. Even the revised numbers may be to high.


Robert

[Meso]

I think my 19/9/5 was just a TAD too high.. Think it will be more like 12/5/2

[AussieMark]

I originally said 15/8/5


I think now

12/6/3

[kenl01]

initially 13/7/3

now

11/5/2 (I'd say below average number of hurricanes)

[EDR1222]

Original 14-7-4
Revised 11-5-3

Can we revise again in early September ?

[Weatherfreak14]

WAZ 20-10-6
Now 13-6-3

[stormchazer]

Original - 18/16/4

Updated - 12/9/2

The above predictions are based on a sound lack of any ability what so over. Any suggestion of ability is strictly that of the readers. The predictor takes no responsibility for those who thinks he knows what he is talking about.

[stormtruth]

I'm taking Gray's totally innacurate forecast of 15/7/3 multiplying by 3 (45/21/9) dividing by 2 (22.5/10.5/4.5) adding 1 intense hurricane (22.5/10.5/5.5) and subtracting 2 named storms (20.5/10.5/5.5) and then rounding up to get the correct answer -> 21/11/6

[Trugunzn]

original: 29/16/10

updated: 16/8/5

[x-y-no]

Bored? Want something to do?

Dr. Gray and NOAA get to revise their seasonal predictions, why can't we? Those of you (and there were many) who predicted 20+ named storms this year just might be thinking that you'd overestimated the number a tad. You think? My numbers were 15/8/4.

So, what were your original numbers, and what are your revised numbers for the season? I have a good idea what I'd change, but I want to see your numbers first.

Well, mine were 18/11/6 and yes I'd definitely move down at this point. In fact, I'd say your 15/8/4 looks pretty good to me right now.

[gatorcane]

Bored? Want something to do?

Dr. Gray and NOAA get to revise their seasonal predictions, why can't we? Those of you (and there were many) who predicted 20+ named storms this year just might be thinking that you'd overestimated the number a tad. You think? My numbers were 15/8/4.

So, what were your original numbers, and what are your revised numbers for the season? I have a good idea what I'd change, but I want to see your numbers first.

Well, mine were 18/11/6 and yes I'd definitely move down at this point. In fact, I'd say your 15/8/4 looks pretty good to me right now.

Mine were at 15/8/4 to begin with and I'm sticking with it. That was based on the fact that 2005 was a fluke and on the statistical avg since 1995 with the active cycle began.

[Frank2]

I usually don't get into this, but, my own guess is 9/3/1 - which would be less than 1/3 of last year's totals...

I'd say it's too early to really back off, but, if the current trend continues beyond September 1, then...

Frank

[DESTRUCTION5]

I usually don't get into this, but, my own guess is 9/3/1 - which would be less than 1/3 of last year's totals...

I'd say it's too early to really back off, but, if the current trend continues beyond September 1, then...

Frank

LMAO Frank im shocked thats a large prediction!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well I'll downgrade my numbers even further too:

My old prediction was (I think all the numbers are right);

20/15/7

My new prediction;

15/7/4

[Frank2]

Well, not really, since we've already had three, so, the remainder is 6/3/1...

I thought some might be surprised...

Frank