Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[LAwxrgal]

Wow is this another wave? We already have TD4 and now this? Hmm.... maybe Dr. Mayfield was right after all about the "bell about to ring in the Atlantic" or something like that.... We are, after all, in mid August...

[skysummit]

Yes LA...except this one is closer to home. It's just east of the Islands and looks Carribean Bound.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like its centered near 10 north/44 west. Looks to becoming better organized over the last few hours. Convection is starting to form near it. The oveerall wave is becoming sharper.

[skysummit]

The 00z Canadian develops it and brings it into the Gulf via the Yucatan Channel by the end of its run. The MM5 also develops it and brings it near eastern Cuba.

It does look like it's getting better organized.

[bvigal]

I must be looking at a different satellite, then! Am I missing something?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
Convection has dropped significantly over the last 4 hours, at 10N 44W. Surface low has been dropped on 6z chart and on 8am TWD described only as "broad mid-level rotation."

I think the dust is strangling this one.

[skysummit]

bvi...yes, convection has decreased and the rotation is broad, however, the structure of the wave has improved. It's much tighter than it was last night.

[SouthFloridawx]

The UKMET is picking up on this wave and develops a closed low.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 06/54.html

CMC is also picking up on it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/66.html

[skysummit]

Nathan....so does the MM5.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nathan....so does the MM5.

I see that now... just later down the road.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/18.html

To add looking at the 850mb vorticity...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

It takes into the Southern GOM by the end of the run.

GRAIN OF SALT... just the CMC

[mike815]

tru still another system to watch that wave over africa defienetly looks like a player as well down the road

[bvigal]

I'm more concerned with the convection that's been building this morning at 12N 55W...

[skysummit]

I'm more concerned with the convection that's been building this morning at 12N 55W...

That is a nice developing blob, isn't it. Don't look now, but it looks as if convection is building just to the west of the center of that wave's broad circulation also.

[SouthFloridawx]

It looks as though the Saharan dust is quickly making it treck across the atlantic. As soon as it passes by that should leave any other waves out there open for unimpeded development. Barring any unforseen high mid-upper level shear.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rucol.html


Yesterday
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... col-3.html

[beachbum_al]

I think we all might be busy this week and weekend tracking stuff. So much for a quiet and peaceful season. Heat up that coffee maker and pour me some because I am going to be needing some soon.

[bvigal]

Pressure rising at all 3 buoys between the 2 waves
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[bvigal]

I'm late for a job and really frustrated I don't have time to really research this. The waves placement and the water vapor images don't match up. I think there's a wave in Caribbean now, that approached here yesterday when it was so hot and "close", which is how they usually feel. And another one back at 50-55W, not 60W at 8am this morning. It would take looking up all the surface and ship observations and I'm late now. If anybody else has time to do this, it might be interesting. Cheers!

24hr graphs of buoys: 46.0W 14.5N 41041 53.0W 14.5N 41040 56.2W 14.6N 41101 57.9W 15.9N 41100 Links for airport data: Trinidad Grenada Barbados St. Vincent St. Lucia south St. Lucia north

[AJC3]

While the most intense convection is the linear band between about 9N-13N and 47-57W, it appears to be along a low level speed surge, which is enhancing convergence. The best sense of mid level cyclonic turning, as pointed out earlier in this thread, is back behind this area, near 9-10N and 44-45W. MHO is that is the place to watch for any TC development.

Nevertheless, it appears some nasty squalls are headed for the southern Windwards, T&T, the Venezuelan north coast, and eventually, the ABC islands, associated with that speed surge.

[canegrl04]

Looks like we should concentrate on this wave and forget the one thats forecast to be a fish If its a GOM system,look out!

[Dean4Storms]

Does look rather more organized this morning. It is also about to cross into slightly warmer SST's near 50w I believe. If it can fight off the SAL it should develop further the closer it gets to the Carib. where they usually go on to develop once looking this organized.

[Thunder44]

923
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 22 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE ISLANDS FOR 24/1800Z NEAR 13N AND 58W.