Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[Blown Away]

IMO, looks like the cloud mass is moving more WNW than due W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[stormernie]

Folks this is a open wave oriented NE to SW. Additionally, if you look at the loops from this morning while convention has increased the cyclonic rotation has dimished. All cloud elements are moving toward a wnw and development if any is going to have to wait for another 24 hours or so.

I do not see this system becoming a depression anytime soon, and maybe not at all.

[skysummit]

Folks this is a open wave oriented NE to SW. Additionally, if you look at the loops from this morning while convention has increased the cyclonic rotation has dimished. All cloud elements are moving toward a wnw and development if any is going to have to wait for another 24 hours or so.

I do not see this system becoming a depression anytime soon, and maybe not at all.

Evidentally you're not keeping up with satellite imagery.

[Derek Ortt]

rotation has decreased?

what loops are you looking at? All loops show an increased mid-level rotation and this should soon work its way down to the surface

[bvigal]

ConvergenceZone, that 25-page limit discussion is in "Talking Tropics Forum Format for 2006" in Management Announcements, where it was debated ad nauseum prior to hurricane season 2006.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=83414

Also, some might want to read this, from http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432, referenced in "Announcement: NEW Rules and Guidelines for EVERYONE.."

The Talkin' Tropics forum is a place for sharing, discussing, and learning. Unfortunately, well thought out, informative posts can be completely buried in mere minutes beneath a mountain of posts with really no useful substance at all. Questions and comments are welcomed...that's what we're here for. This isn't a professionals only board, but in the interest of time and space, it is not necessary to post every single thought that pops in your head. That's chatroom style. Storm2k has become an important weather information source for many people. If you're at work, and you only have a few minutes to grab the latest tropical information, how frustrating it must be to plow through page after page of "I agree" "time to lock this thread" "that sounds possible" and "I already said that in another thread," etc.

"I agree" - Unless you have a weighty meteorological reputation, whether or not you agree is irrelevant to most people reading the post. What if everyone replied just to say "I agree" or "I disagree" - it would need its own forum.

"Time to lock this thread" - Please continue posting on topic until the thread is locked. How silly and wasteful to post a countdown until it's locked. It wastes valuable time and space.

"That sounds possible" - Almost anything is possible. Possibilites are limitless and universally accepted as such so it's not necessary to reply just to point this out.

"I already said/saw that in another thread" - Believe it or not, some people do not read every single post on every single page in every single thread. That comment is really just rude. This isn't a game of one-upmanship. Nobody is trying to steal your thunder. Maybe they didn't read your post and they made a similar comment. It's probably not intentional and you don't need to waste a post pointing it out.

Here's another tip: it's not always necessary to quote someone's entire post or graphic just to comment on it. Obviously, sometimes it is, but use good judgement. Most of the time it's just a space muncher.

[Scorpion]

Folks this is a open wave oriented NE to SW. Additionally, if you look at the loops from this morning while convention has increased the cyclonic rotation has dimished. All cloud elements are moving toward a wnw and development if any is going to have to wait for another 24 hours or so.

I do not see this system becoming a depression anytime soon, and maybe not at all.

Great time to say this when almost every single pro met is harping on development.

[Regit]

If you look at the loop that Blown Away posted, you'll see some of the lower level clouds moving in a somewhat circular manner. If you look to the south of the storm, you'll briefly see what looks like some moving up to the North. So not every cloud is moving WNW.

EDIT: Those clouds I mentioned that are moving counterclockwise are to the N and W of the main clouds.

[skysummit]

Folks this is a open wave oriented NE to SW. Additionally, if you look at the loops from this morning while convention has increased the cyclonic rotation has dimished. All cloud elements are moving toward a wnw and development if any is going to have to wait for another 24 hours or so.

I do not see this system becoming a depression anytime soon, and maybe not at all.

Great time to say this when almost every single pro met is harping on development.

LOL...he must have to clear his cache or something.

[dwg71]

Folks this is a open wave oriented NE to SW. Additionally, if you look at the loops from this morning while convention has increased the cyclonic rotation has dimished. All cloud elements are moving toward a wnw and development if any is going to have to wait for another 24 hours or so.

I do not see this system becoming a depression anytime soon, and maybe not at all.

Finally a voice of reason...


see this loop, http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

overall convection has decreased over tha past few hours. Development is possible, not imminent.

[ConvergenceZone]

Folks this is a open wave oriented NE to SW. Additionally, if you look at the loops from this morning while convention has increased the cyclonic rotation has dimished. All cloud elements are moving toward a wnw and development if any is going to have to wait for another 24 hours or so.

I do not see this system becoming a depression anytime soon, and maybe not at all.

you are in the extreme minority when it comes to not believing it may occur AT ALL, but I do agree with the 24 hours bit...

You are in the minority there, , but that's okay

[Noles2006]

Yeah... you kinda lose any credibility whenever all of the pro mets are basically stating the exact opposite of you.

[x-y-no]

Folks this is a open wave oriented NE to SW. Additionally, if you look at the loops from this morning while convention has increased the cyclonic rotation has dimished. All cloud elements are moving toward a wnw and development if any is going to have to wait for another 24 hours or so.

I do not see this system becoming a depression anytime soon, and maybe not at all.

I've been looking at the hi-res visible loop from GHCC off and on all afternoon. It's true I can't close off a surface circulation, but there's a very sharp wave signature at the very least. A far cry from "all cloud elements moving wnw".

[cycloneye]

Ok folks the theme of thread is not about one person but about 97L.

[ConvergenceZone]

ConvergenceZone, that 25-page limit discussion is in "Talking Tropics Forum Format for 2006" in Management Announcements, where it was debated ad nauseum prior to hurricane season 2006.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=83414

Also, some might want to read this, from http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432, referenced in "Announcement: NEW Rules and Guidelines for EVERYONE.."

The Talkin' Tropics forum is a place for sharing, discussing, and learning. Unfortunately, well thought out, informative posts can be completely buried in mere minutes beneath a mountain of posts with really no useful substance at all. Questions and comments are welcomed...that's what we're here for. This isn't a professionals only board, but in the interest of time and space, it is not necessary to post every single thought that pops in your head. That's chatroom style. Storm2k has become an important weather information source for many people. If you're at work, and you only have a few minutes to grab the latest tropical information, how frustrating it must be to plow through page after page of "I agree" "time to lock this thread" "that sounds possible" and "I already said that in another thread," etc.

"I agree" - Unless you have a weighty meteorological reputation, whether or not you agree is irrelevant to most people reading the post. What if everyone replied just to say "I agree" or "I disagree" - it would need its own forum.

"Time to lock this thread" - Please continue posting on topic until the thread is locked. How silly and wasteful to post a countdown until it's locked. It wastes valuable time and space.

"That sounds possible" - Almost anything is possible. Possibilites are limitless and universally accepted as such so it's not necessary to reply just to point this out.

"I already said/saw that in another thread" - Believe it or not, some people do not read every single post on every single page in every single thread. That comment is really just rude. This isn't a game of one-upmanship. Nobody is trying to steal your thunder. Maybe they didn't read your post and they made a similar comment. It's probably not intentional and you don't need to waste a post pointing it out.

Here's another tip: it's not always necessary to quote someone's entire post or graphic just to comment on it. Obviously, sometimes it is, but use good judgement. Most of the time it's just a space muncher.

Actually, it doesn't bother me at all. I just wasn't around when they switched to doing that, so I was curious if it still is in effect when it's super active, but no, it doesn't bother me. Ya gotta do what's right for the board.

[Derek Ortt]

usually, the no development crowd is the voice of reason, but this is, it is not

[Regit]

Yeah... you kinda lose any credibility whenever all of the pro mets are basically stating the exact opposite of you.

To be fair, that's not really true. Go look at the threads from just hours before TD 4 was declared by the NHC. Those who were in the tiny minority were correct.

I disagree at this particular time that this isn't forming, but simply disagreeing with a pro met doesn't automatically mean you're wrong.

[CrazyC83]

I kinda want to make a prediction on this one, but it would seem so out of whack...

[bvigal]

Check out the visible loop with overlays, before the sun goes down - quite impressive compared to the last few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Thunder44]

There is definitely more mid-level cyclonic rotation seen on visible images the earlier today. This might be harder to see on colored infrared images since the convection has a flatter appearance.

[Regit]

Check out the visible loop with overlays, before the sun goes down - quite impressive compared to the last few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

On this loop you'll notice convection sort of boom about halfway through. If you look into the "hole" that's filled in by convection just before the convection develops, and if you look on the very edges of the high convection, it appears to me that you can track some low level clouds trying to loosely move counterclockwise.

Anyone else see this?

EDIT: I just noticed the most recent picture is two hours old, but it's still relevant.