TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

[Sanibel]

I think we should start recognizing the fact that we could have a strong storm in the Gulf of Mexico in a few days.

TD5 (Ernesto) should go into an eastern Caribbean suspension until it escapes the South American southern inflow.

Since the projected track takes it through the Yucatan Channel I would start realizing what we could be dealing with here.


SST Sanibel: 89*

[Noles2006]

Please die, Ernesto. Please die.

We don't need this.

I know, I'm chatting again.

How much impact would a new center to the NE of the old center have on future track? I wouldn't think it would be too much...

[NESDIS Met]

Yeah, skysummit, work for the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (a division of NOAA), trained at UW-Madison, work out of NY.

thanks for the welcome, been lurking for years

[Aquawind]

I think we all have realized what is possible.. so many possibilities.. Not time to panick of even focus yet.. Lets's get a good solid VDM with a good initialization for the 00Z tonight and then we can talk GOM issues.. imo.

[Dave C]

I just ran a loop of the vis. floater and there definately is low-level inflow apparent from the south and the west of the system. Also moisture building out some just ahead of it. I really thought earlier today this would struggle to survive the day, but now it seems environment is improving with time as others have mentioned. Recon will tell the story.

[Sanibel]

My specific worry is that climatology suggests "slow-fuse" systems through this area that are slow to develop - yet possess impressive convection - are ones that have historically gone to the high end further down stream. Especially with high Gulf SST's like are present.


Late August is gunpowder in this area. "Andrew" "Charley" "Katrina".

[robbielyn]

If this thing insists on hitting the us, then lets hope it will be north of brownsville and south of galveston, don't want n.o. to hardly be affected. Anything north of galveston to west coast of fl truly need a break from this. Sorry Texas I know you don't want this thing either and hopefully it will go into mexico instead. I just don't think thats going to happen. I am more concerned actually with a mississippi to alabama landfall. But they truly need a break this year. If it is east of N.O that would be better for N.O. but M.S. doesn't need this thing.

[Aquawind]

Welcome NESDIS Met!

[ConvergenceZone]

Please die, Ernesto. Please die.

We don't need this.

I know, I'm chatting again.

How much impact would a new center to the NE of the old center have on future track? I wouldn't think it would be too much...

I'm just hoping for a west track(which is why I'm fixating on that so much). I know Mexico has people too, but I don't think it's quite as populated as the gulf states(but I may be wrong)....If it's going to be weak, go to the gulf, otherwise, unpopulated areas of Mexico.

[Stormcenter]

I think we should start recognizing the fact that we could have a strong storm in the Gulf of Mexico in a few days.

TD5 (Ernesto) should go into an eastern Caribbean suspension until it escapes the South American southern inflow.

Since the projected track takes it through the Yucatan Channel I would start realizing what we could be dealing with here.


SST Sanibel: 89*

I think it will be longer than a few days if in fact it is slowing down and actually heads toward the GOM. There is still alot of uncertainty.

[NESDIS Met]

cheers Aquawind, exciting times ahead...love the storms but not the results

I have to get some work done, but check back in after recon

[gatorcane]

Please die, Ernesto. Please die.

We don't need this.

I know, I'm chatting again.

How much impact would a new center to the NE of the old center have on future track? I wouldn't think it would be too much...

I don't think Ernesto has any plans to die I'm afraid

[Stormcenter]

cheers Aquawind, exciting times ahead...love the storms but not the results

I have to get some work done, but check back in after recon

Exciting, I don't think so, more like worried.

[gatorcane]

The developing low off the Georgia coast could be what the GFDL is seeing that is causing the weakness....interesting...

[Noles2006]

Destruction5 in the Georgia low thread brought up an interesting point... could that possible developing low be what causes the weakness that a few of the models were/are seeing down the road?

[Derek Ortt]

I want a wave

I want a tee time tomorrow afternoon, or stuck in the office just 1/2 miles from the golf course

[Bailey1777]

Welcome NESDIS we can always use another hand from a pro.

[Wx_Warrior]

Interesting...It's got to be why GFDL has it moving towards Fla

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if they wait until the 5pm to give it a name and show that next set of plots, the markets will have closed and the price of oil won't drastically rise on the news until at least Monday. I suggest everyone get their tanks filled now and any extras they can store. This won't be pretty next week. On top of the housing news, we are headed straight for the recession (did we ever really escape from it?) if this thing gets a name and is expected to enter the gulf as a strong storm.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm sorry but, i'm not seeing an open wave here with this loop.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

Hopefully you'll get the weekend off Derek.