Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

#41 Postby **Starburst** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:10 pm

Yes, but as of right this minute the cone of terror has no meaning. The NHC has not even decided where this will go.

Rainband · #42 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:10 pm

Damar91 wrote:I know what will be said now, but too bad, I have to say it. That "cone of death" keeps creeping more towards the Fl peninsula every update.

The whole GOM s in the cone. I agree though we weren't in it before. Wait and Watch. :wink:

Josephine96 · #43 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:12 pm

the cone of craziness :lol:

jpigott · #44 Postby **jpigott** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:13 pm

latest IR imagery shows the convection creeping ever closer to the exposed LLC

Extremeweatherguy · #45 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:14 pm

Rainband wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Since I have not heard an opinion on this since yesterday..

Pro Mets...where do you currently think this will go? Have the forecasted steering currents changed since yesterday or is this still a MX, TX, LA threat down the road?
Won't know anything for a couple of days.

Oh I know, and I am not expecting an exact answer. Just wanted to see if their overall thinking was the same as it was last night.

AZRainman · #46 Postby **AZRainman** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:15 pm

NRL changes Ernesto back to noname. LOL

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

#47 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:15 pm

I am almost feeling safe from this storm, but the developing low off the GA coast is worrying. It will create a weakness in the ridge, plus that front over the south has been inching lower each model run and the most recent one showed it's tail end dropping down along the tx gulf. If the trend is for that front to lower even further, that spells trouble for the panhandle, but leaves TX and LA safe.

I did't see the models seeing the developing feature except the GFDL and CMC at one point. Maybe they are over doing it, maybe under doing it.

As I said yesterday, we'll probably have to wait until Sunday night to have a better grip on what teh other synoptics will be to steer this to a landfall point.

Here we go again LinkerWeather. Hope you got some rest, because it looks like you'll be awfully busy over the next week!

#48 Postby **george_r_1961** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:15 pm

Well given that dissipation isnt as likely as many of us originally thought its time for everyone from the FL keys to Texas to start watching Ernesto. IMO it will encounter more conducive conditions late in the weekend.

Here we go again folks :roll:

#49 Postby **linkerweather** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:16 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Here we go again LinkerWeather. Hope you got some rest, because it looks like you'll be awfully busy over the next week!

I sleep from December through May. UNless of course we get a winter El nino. remeber 97-98?

Scorpion · #50 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:18 pm

Damar91 wrote:I know what will be said now, but too bad, I have to say it. That "cone of death" keeps creeping more towards the Fl peninsula every update.

There is a higher chance of me winning 1 million bucks tomorrow than S FL being affected.

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #51 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:19 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:New Europen has South Texas again...to each is own

New Euro says La-that part that sticks out near the Mississipi border
http://www.ecmwf.int/

#52 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:19 pm

bad year! and they say another nino year may be approaching. hope not! -but that is for discussion elsewhere.

So, let's hear your early % check....totally off the record.... 15% chance of it hitting FL or more?

Website · #53 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:20 pm

gbear wrote:NRL changes Ernesto back to noname. LOL

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Weird.

Extremeweatherguy · #54 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:21 pm

gbear wrote:NRL changes Ernesto back to noname. LOL

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

That's weird.. :?:

ROCK · #55 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:21 pm

Man, I can't access 2K from work (some sort of block on it) so I have been keeping up with the blog from wunderground.....quite a difference to say the least. Thank god we have mods and Pro-Mets here....just wanted to say thanks....

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #56 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:21 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:bad year! and they say another nino year may be approaching. hope not! -but that is for discussion elsewhere.

So, let's hear your early % check....totally off the record.... 15% chance of it hitting FL or more?

I'd watch it if I were in Fla west of Pensacola

NESDIS Met · #57 Postby **NESDIS Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:22 pm

never mind[/url]

ConvergenceZone · #58 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:22 pm

I still say that the last 1/2 of the 5:00 pm discussion is the exact same as the 11:00 am discussion. I think they just cut and paste it and didn't even write up a new one...

Noles2006 · #59 Postby **Noles2006** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:22 pm

Heh, there isn't anywhere in Florida west of Pensacola.

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #60 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 4:23 pm

Noles2006 wrote:Heh, there isn't anywhere in Florida west of Pensacola.

A whole 5 miles :lol:

Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

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