TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[LeeJet]

Derek, is there a new LLC under the convection?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

PTPatrick, I was going to mention the same thing. I was reading BR/NO's and Hattiesburg's AFD anfd they both mention and have been mentioning over the last couple of days about a front making it down towards our area around Wed/Thurs. timeframe. That is the same time E is supposed to be in the cnetral gulf. This is what concerns me as we all know that means there will be a chance for the storm to find a weakness in the ridge and move N or NNE ahead of it with increasing speed. Let me know if I am out in left field about this scenario, but that is what I think. FWIW. And yes I know things can and will change.

[skysummit]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/tc_ssmis/composite/full/Latest.html

this is still a badly sheared system that is not intensifying at all. Just plodding along as expected

Are you saying that it is not "expected" to intensify?

I'm confused.

I believe he's stating it's not intensifying at the moment...which is expected. It should hold its own for the next day or two then begin to intensify if it survives.

FOX 8, Chip Barrere, just mentioned it's getting better organized and he sees the shear weakening to the west.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Once again the center is north of the 5pm NHC forecasted track and looks to be moving more WNW now.

where are you getting this from?

[bayoubebe]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/tc_ssmis/composite/full/Latest.html

this is still a badly sheared system that is not intensifying at all. Just plodding along as expected

Are you saying that it is not "expected" to intensify?

I'm confused.

He didn't say that. He was just mentioning current conditions. Many pros believe after the next 24 hours or so, conditions will become more favorable.

Thank you for the explanation.

My apologies for my "amateurness." <<<I think I just made that word up.

I'm still learning. Mainly a reader here.

[Cape Verde]

PROS: What do you make of this Wednesday/Thursday troug/front coming into Texas and Louisiana...

Accuweather hints that if the storm moves fast enough it could beat the trough to Texas and or western LA...but that if the storm slows more it could easily turn due north or possibly NNE...

My company is big enough that we hire our own meteorologist. Maybe he posts here. I dunno. But that's exactly what he told us early this afternoon. He's convinced it will make it into the Gulf, but sees either a Texas or Florida landfall. Not much inbetween.

His opinion could have totally changed in the last 8 hours. I don't know. I'll know on Monday when we make an official decision on how to react.

[Typhoon]

this is still a badly sheared system that is not intensifying at all. Just plodding along as expected

Your forecast did say that Ernesto won't strengthen for 24 hours. However, saying that it is "badly" sheared seems a bit inconsistent with your forecast. Let's look at what you said.

Mid level shear nearly destroyed the system today, but that has lessened. However, upper level shear from the UL in the NW Caribbean and possibly the one to the north may still keep the intensity in check.

Your wording suggests shear, but not bad shear. Has your shear prognosis gotten worse again? Don't get me wrong, I have great respect for you and the other pro mets, I just see a bit of inconsistency here.

[BUD]

PROS: What do you make of this Wednesday/Thursday troug/front coming into Texas and Louisiana...

Accuweather hints that if the storm moves fast enough it could beat the trough to Texas and or western LA...but that if the storm slows more it could easily turn due north or possibly NNE...

My company is big enough that we hire our own meteorologist. Maybe he posts here. I dunno. But that's exactly what he told us early this afternoon. He's convinced it will make it into the Gulf, but sees either a Texas or Florida landfall. Not much inbetween.

His opinion could have totally changed in the last 8 hours. I don't know. I'll know on Monday when we make an official decision on how to react.

Do you work for the city or a oil rig

[Derek Ortt]

center is moving at about 280

the SSM/I pass shows a clearly exposed circulation

The threat to Florida is a small one at the present time

[LeeJet]

It sounds like Derek doesn't want this to form!

[Derek Ortt]

didnt the forecast clearly say shear will remain for up to 72 hours?

of course its being sheared now, it is supposed to be sheared now

[Bailey1777]

Weather is inconsistent/ fact of life. Derek is one of the best just sit back and learn newbie!

[fci]

Seems like Ernie is following exactly what the Pro Mets have been saying for over a day now.

IF he makes it past the shear he will be in a very favorable environment.

However he MAY NOT make it through the shear.

I have NOT seen the "flip-flopping" that some people have been complaining about.
Right on schedule in my opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

seems like the center is just on the outer edge of the warmer convection. Not horribly exposed though:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast/Advisory Number 6

0300 UTC Sat Aug 26 2006


at 11 PM AST...0300z...the tropical storm watch has been upgraded to
a Tropical Storm Warning along the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border westward to the southwestern tip of Haiti.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.

Interests in the Cayman Islands and western Cuba should monitor the
progress of Ernesto.

Tropical storm center located near 14.8n 69.1w at 26/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt....... 80ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas..120ne 120se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 14.8n 69.1w at 26/0300z
at 26/0000z center was located near 14.5n 68.4w

forecast valid 26/1200z 15.6n 71.1w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 80ne 40se 0sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 27/0000z 16.6n 73.7w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 27/1200z 17.8n 76.4w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 28/0000z 19.0n 79.0w...inland
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 29/0000z 22.0n 84.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 30/0000z 24.0n 87.0w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.

Outlook valid 31/0000z 26.0n 90.0w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 14.8n 69.1w

next advisory at 26/0900z

$$
forecaster Mainelli/Knabb

[Cyclenall]

wow...

I feel embarassed for Fox 26 in Houston. The met just showed a run of the GFDL taking it over Hispaniola and into the Atlantic. Can you say OLD! lol.

That's nothing, a CNN weather guy just said that Ernesto is expected to very rapidly strengthen once it is near Jamaica and shear ahead of it is "very low". Now that is embarrassing!!

[Stratosphere747]

Great post fci....

To bad many here are not willing to learn, and instead are focused on the landfall point..

[SouthFloridawx]

outlook valid 30/0000z 24.0n 87.0w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.

Outlook valid 31/0000z 26.0n 90.0w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

[Cape Verde]

I work for a major oil company in Houston. We have to watch these things because of our offshore operations.

[Extremeweatherguy]

85 knots? GULP.