TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[Viper54r]

ernesto will be inland by next friday


and where do you feel he will go inland at Mr. Ortt?

[Bailey1777]

They are still fixing it further West with no latitude.

[TampaFl]

From NWS TLH:

FXUS62 KTAE 260647
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
247 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006


MONDAY...STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY CREATES
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION AND STARTS TO BRING BACK BETTER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHATTAHOOCHEE/APALACHICOLA RIVERS. WITH THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE...WILL GO FOR 50 PERCENT WEST OF THE RIVER AND 40 PERCENT
TO THE EAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS ALSO GOING TO A BIG PLAYER ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF ERNESTO. MORE ON THIS BELOW IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH ERNESTO.
LATEST NHC FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THE GFS IS NOW PREDICTING THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CAUSE THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR
ERNESTO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS AS WELL. ONLY TIME WILL
TELL THOUGH ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH ERNESTO...GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
ARE FLIP FLOPPING A BIT. I'VE GENERALLY SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SKY
COVER ON THURSDAY AND FOLLOWED A LITTLE BELOW THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
POPS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ERNESTO AND THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
&&

.Robert

[Derek Ortt]

you're asking me for a landfall 6 days out

not getting that answer from me. The error is too large

[TampaFl]

From NWS Tampa:

FXUS62 KTBW 260623
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
223 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

..LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...SURFACE AND 500 MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SE TX TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS MOVING FROM THE INTERIOR TO THE WEST COAST. TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO SHOULD BE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. PREVIOUS 18Z GFS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THAT TS ERNESTO WOULD
BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO HAVE ANY REAL IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z GFS RUN BRINGS TS ERNESTO OUT OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF...CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TO
ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN...THESE RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES MEANS TS ERNESTO BEARS WATCHING AS IT
DEVELOPS FURTHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TS ERNESTO AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED.
WILL OPT FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Robert

[TampaFl]

From NWS Miami:

FXUS62 KMFL 260728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
328 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HERE WE HAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER PROBLEM OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. T.S. ERNESTO MOVING NOW
THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIB IS FORECAST (NHC) TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND REACH WESTERN CUBA BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE.
WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA? TOO EARLY TO
TELL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ERROR INVOLVED IN FORECAST
FOR 72HRS AND BEYOND. IN ANY CASE...IF IT SHOULD HAPPEN TO FOLLOW
THE FORECAST TRACK...IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP STRONG WINDS
AWAY FROM OUR AREA BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN INCREASE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY. SO DECIDED TO GO WITH SCT TO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

Robert

[Viper54r]

you're asking me for a landfall 6 days out

not getting that answer from me. The error is too large

Its only 120+ hours out when you break it down

[Bailey1777]

Derek is very conservative and very responsible I could have told you his answer.

[timNms]

I saw on the news that this is currently forecast to hit in the LA/MS area is this what you guys think or are they just hyping it because of last year

Local TV Met said at 10pm news tonight that it is anybody's guess where it will go if it is at the point forcasted by Wed eve/Thurs. Best bet is for everyone along the gulf coast (and farther inland, I may add) to be prepared.

[timNms]

you're asking me for a landfall 6 days out

not getting that answer from me. The error is too large

Derek, I think the correct answer in this situation would be "Anywhere from the Mexican coast to the Florida Keys/Peninsula...unless it disappates" LOL.

[clfenwi]

People who have been following the threads closely will know why I laughed fiendishly when I read this line in the 5 AM discussion:

ERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG
SHEAR SO FAR

(placement of the bold emphasis on the most particular bit)

[SouthAlabamaWX]

NWS New Orleans Discussion


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT SAT AUG 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WET DAY EXPECTED AS A DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REGION. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS LATENT HEATING INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THIS SAME TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE SUN AS A BROAD RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IS PROGGED TO SWING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD AND ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA BY MID WEEK. THE FRONT THOUGH LOOKS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE NHC FORECAST STILL INDICATES ERNESTO TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A CAT 3 HURRICANE BY THU. THE TRACK OF ERNESTO WILL THEN BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE KEY WILL BE IF THE RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WILL THE UPPER TROUGH ALLOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY SHIFT THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING T.S. ERNESTO FOR THE DAYS AHEAD.
&&

[TampaFl]

Looks like a S.W. LA hit IF this track would verify, but as we all know, this will change numerous times between now and Monday. Now would be a good time for all residents of the Gulf Coast to review there hurricane preparation plans.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

SW LA? Maybe. Still too early.

[TampaFl]

After 72 hours the track is highly dependent on what is going to happen with the ridge over the Southeast US and the weakness that is forecast by some to be moving in. See the above NWS forecast discussions this morning. Timing is the key after 72 hours.



Robert

[Pebbles]

weather channel just reported a drop to 997mb pressure. Haven't seen the vortex to confirm that. just had the tv running in background

Edit: found it.. in recon thread

[Sanibel]

There's the nocturnal burst I said to watch for yesterday.

Ernesto dropping to 997 under shear.

That should silence the doubters.

Time to start thinking about the worst at landfall in the Gulf.

[Pebbles]

got quite a bit a time before anyone should start fearing the worst quite yet. Never know.. something could come along that will knock the feet out from under this thing. Heaven knows the last thing I think anyone wanted to see was another possible major in the gulf. They all have had enough.

Actually I love following these things... am no where near hurricane zones now.. and I'm sick of seeing them in the gulf. sure it's 100 times worse for those who actually live there.

Come on shear.. kick Mr. E's butt!

[Sanibel]

This is a system that is strengthening under shear in the east Caribbean - a place known for not supporting sheared systems.

It has nothing ahead of it but the untapped west Caribbean and prime August Gulf of Mexico that supports storms like Camille in August historically.

You tell me.

By the way, Gulf temperature off Sanibel: 89*

[Pebbles]

yeah... the gulf temps are sick hot. Can't blame me for hoping that the shear will get it though because of that, can ya?

I do believe it will get into the gulf.. and unless the shear is able to completely disappate the thing before that (which indeed is highly doubtful) all bets are off. I am not on the other hand ready to make any kind of prediction of where it will head. I do think it's time for people to sit up and pay attention to this thing... but no where near panick mode time quite yet. Allot of things can happen in 6 days to change things. I think Monday/Tue probably be when that starts happening.