T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Stormcenter]

afm, what is your read on where this thing is headed late next week? saw you are not really buying into the model depiction of strength of trough. Thanks.

Mid-TX coast to NOLA....heavy emphasis on LA coast.

I hope you are wrong AFM those folks don't need it. As I stated before I think the models are on to something with the eastward shift.

[teal61]

Here's a high resolution McIDAS image. I put the extrapolated NHC position on it (red "X"). NHC had the center at 15.1/71.2 at 10am moving at 12 kts. I moved it to 15.1N/71.4W (0.2 west). Note that the "center" is not near any convection. I don't really see a center there, in fact. At least, not at the surface. There MAY be a broad LLC north of that location. The MLC is in the red circle to the east, but I don't know that there is an LLC in there.

Could Ernesto have lost its LLC? We'll have to wait for the plane to get there to find out, but it doesn't look very healthy to me.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto37.gif

Ive been looking at the loops for the last 15 mins or so trying to find the llc because from what im seeing there is no circulation near the NHC position. Looks to me like it's further east but I'm defintely an amatuer. Needless to say its' confusing.

[Mac]

If Ernesto has lost its LLC, then the NHC will have to downgrade him to a disturbance right?

No. As long as TS strength conditions exist, he'll remain a TS. They'd only downgrade if the storms intensity justifies being downgraded. Stroms get separated from LLCs at times. In fact, it has already happened to Ernie yesterday. But the storms can also reorganize and come together again. It doesn't necessarily mean the death of a storm.

[wxman57]

Here's a high resolution McIDAS image. I put the extrapolated NHC position on it (red "X"). NHC had the center at 15.1/71.2 at 10am moving at 12 kts. I moved it to 15.1N/71.4W (0.2 west). Note that the "center" is not near any convection. I don't really see a center there, in fact. At least, not at the surface. There MAY be a broad LLC north of that location. The MLC is in the red circle to the east, but I don't know that there is an LLC in there.

Could Ernesto have lost its LLC? We'll have to wait for the plane to get there to find out, but it doesn't look very healthy to me.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto37.gif

Doesn't really make sense though... how would a steadily organizing and strengthening TC in lighter shear just lose its LLC?

Steadily organizing is certainly questionable. Intensifying is also questionable. I think it was stronger 8 hours ago when the plane was last there. Can you see an LLC where that red X is? That's the NHC position. I see nothing there in the way of a rotation. Perhaps a road weak circulation indicated by the yellow ring, but that could just be an illusion.

The appearance on satellite is very much like Debby of 2000 when it lost its LLC.

Step back and take a real look at this thing rather than discussing landfall.

[Air Force Met]

There is a now blow up of convection right where the LLC is...clearly visible on the GHCC loop

Loop

[TheShrimper]

Wxman57, thats exactly what I was wondering about in a earlier post.

[Noles2006]

For what its worth, latest models continue to show shift east towars Panhandle-Tallahasee solution.

Heh, dude, don't say that stuff. It's not comin' within 200 miles of here.

[wxman57]

Here's a high resolution McIDAS image. I put the extrapolated NHC position on it (red "X"). NHC had the center at 15.1/71.2 at 10am moving at 12 kts. I moved it to 15.1N/71.4W (0.2 west). Note that the "center" is not near any convection. I don't really see a center there, in fact. At least, not at the surface. There MAY be a broad LLC north of that location. The MLC is in the red circle to the east, but I don't know that there is an LLC in there.

Could Ernesto have lost its LLC? We'll have to wait for the plane to get there to find out, but it doesn't look very healthy to me.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto37.gif

Not with a 997Mb pressure he didn't. It ain't filling that fast my friend.

Well, the plane hasn't been in there for a while. Things can change quickly. For all we know, the pressure is up to 1002-1004mb now. Do you see an LLC where the NHC has its position, AFM?

[Air Force Met]

I'm just looking with my own eyes, look at link, make own interpretation...

I might be wrong it might look better than it did 4 hours ago

Well since its day time usually the convection tends to decrease and then increases overnight.

I'm not talking convection decrease, I'm talking about structure.. see wx57's post. He questions if there is a LLC. If your not calling for CAT 4 or 5, you bashed. Its obvious that ERNIE looks worse now then it has at any point in the past 12 hours.

Let's be real....you have to have a LLC with a 997 mb pressure. Even if the pressure is up to 1003...you still have to have a LLC

[teal61]

Whens the next recon due ? I think we will see a relocation back to the east when they get there.

[Recurve]

The models that see a long trough with a NE-SW axis result in the storm riding the western periphery of the high over Florida as far east as the big bend. If the trough is less extensive, the storm could nudge toward a bend in the ridge and then lose its steering before a rebuilding ridge heads it more westerly again. There's a scenario where all of LA is watching a large major storm nearby in the gulf for a few days without knowing where it's going, and Texas to Cedar Key holding their breath. Others have pointed out that a strong storm will increase subsidence around it and contribute to a ridge rebuilding. I'm trying to keep all this in mind, even with the advice for everyone from Mexico to the Keys to keep watching closely.

Like to hear any pro say which model they think has the best handle on the ridge/trough.

[Steve]

>>I think what adds some creditability to the GFS, GFDL, & NOGAPs model solutions is the ECMWF (Euro). By Friday night, it takes the storm into the Big Bend area of FL.

Yeah, that's a good consensus set there, but as the TPC has noted, there hasn't been much consistency from run to run with the models. They also have acknowledged that they have overplayed the influence of troughs before and will again. But is that the case this time ($10k question)? It's gonna be an edgy weekend and early next week for a lot of people. I've got my plans together which are as follows:

If the ex-wife has to evacuate her FEMA trailer, then we will move her stuff into the attic of the house shell hoping it's safe there sometime Monday. I will stack up furniture and whatever we can get "up" over here. I'll be taking my 2 remaining bins of pictures and important documents. Take it from somone who's dad lost over 10,000 photos, you can't buy those memories back. We didn't get to save much, but we did save the photographs. Check your priorities and what you want to keep. Bring expensive jewelry with you and all your records (SS Card, Passports, Checkbooks (very important), Kid's report cards, diplomas, Baptismal Certificates, and such). Shred any drawers full of bank statements you have so they don't fall into the wrong hands.

After that, we'll decide when to leave (assuming Ernesto doesn't stall out). There will be a lot of people on the roads in possibly 4 states, so it could get chaotic out there for a couple of days. Whenever we decide to leave (late Wed. or whatever), we'll drive out to Austin, TX to hang with a buddy of mine for a few days until we get either the all clear to come back, temporary reassignment back to the Mobile area or complete re-evaluation of life and living arrangements. I'm native and with any chance at all (assuming I have a job), I'd like to stay. But if I can't, then I'll move on. You never know, but when you've seen this stuff first hand as I have and so many of you out there before me, you realize that your entire life changes in less than 24 hours. Whatever you knew or thought you knew is different. Trust me.

Steve

[Bailey1777]

AFM, I worded my question wrong earlier I should have asked at what point do you think the models see that the trough will not make it so we can get some more realistic tracks?

[Air Force Met]

Here's a high resolution McIDAS image. I put the extrapolated NHC position on it (red "X"). NHC had the center at 15.1/71.2 at 10am moving at 12 kts. I moved it to 15.1N/71.4W (0.2 west). Note that the "center" is not near any convection. I don't really see a center there, in fact. At least, not at the surface. There MAY be a broad LLC north of that location. The MLC is in the red circle to the east, but I don't know that there is an LLC in there.

Could Ernesto have lost its LLC? We'll have to wait for the plane to get there to find out, but it doesn't look very healthy to me.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto37.gif

Not with a 997Mb pressure he didn't. It ain't filling that fast my friend.

Well, the plane hasn't been in there for a while. Things can change quickly. For all we know, the pressure is up to 1002-1004mb now. Do you see an LLC where the NHC has its position, AFM?

Clearly. Look at the loop I posted. It's easy to spot under the convection.

[Dallasis2hot]

I see nothing there in the way of a rotation. Perhaps a road weak circulation indicated by the yellow ring, but that could just be an illusion.

The appearance on satellite is very much like Debby of 2000 when it lost its LLC.

There is a now blow up of convection right where the LLC is...clearly visible on the GHCC loop

Back to back conflicting messages from the top two most respected posters. Gotta love it!

[JTD]

Is Ernesto opening up into a tropical wave? LOL

[HurricaneHunter914]

I just saw the satellite and I admit Ernesto looks ugly.

[skysummit]

The 12z GFS has really weakened the ridge and put Ernesto all the way to the Keys.

12z GFS @ 90 hours:

[miamicanes177]

Seems like everytime recon goes in people say its falling apart and LLC is gone and we have an open wave...then BAM. Recon finds it has strengthened and the pressure continues falling.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, I worded my question wrong earlier I should have asked at what point do you think the models see that the trough will not make it so we can get some more realistic tracks?

Monday.