TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[wxman57]

Here are the latest "credible" model plots. I removed the BAMs and the extrapolated track. There are no credible models forecasting a west coast of FL landfall. Consensus is improving for a track along the east coast of FL then into the Carolinas.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto55.gif

Here's a plot of a couple of pretty good consensus models, the ones the NHC has been mentioning in their discussions (CONU, CGUN):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto56.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here you go...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[skufful]

Here are the latest "credible" model plots. I removed the BAMs and the extrapolated track. There are no credible models forecasting a west coast of FL landfall. Consensus is improving for a track along the east coast of FL then into the Carolinas.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto55.gif

Here's a plot of a couple of pretty good consensus models, the ones the NHC has been mentioning in their discussions (CONU, CGUN):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto56.gif

With all of the land interaction, hopefully just a huge rain event.

[Stormavoider]

I am curios about the persistent convection south of Cuba's eastern tip. Could a second LLC have formed under it? If so, how would it figure into things?

Definitely no second LLC under that convection. Radar shows that the convection is in the form of south-north oriented bands feeding into the real LLC just inland off the N coast of Cuba. No chance that a second LLC forms with that flow.

Great point. I should have looked at the GTMO radar before cluttering this thread with another dumb question. Thanks for the reply

[OuterBanker]

All I know is that I much prefer the 5pm. Kinda gets the OBX off the hook. 11 am looked bad. But this thing has changed at every forecast.

[fci]

Like I said it will come in between SC and NC border

How do you know that?

Gut feel, Quija board, Crystal Ball, Tarot Cards....

[x-y-no]

I am curios about the persistent convection south of Cuba's eastern tip. Could a second LLC have formed under it? If so, how would it figure into things?

No second LLC. There's just a lot of upper-level divergence there, and that's continuing to drive convection.

[MWatkins]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

Cuban radar site pretty close to current center shows definite increase in banding and convection near center. Center is still by no means offshore. Looks like it could ride along that island-ridden coast for quite some time before being "free and clear" to rapidly intensify, unless we get a diurnal convection blowup so significant that it "pulls" the center offshore. I've seen it happen before. Depends on how strong the high north of the system is.

Yes the center is becoming well-defined in radar returns...the increase in thunderstorms just off-shore are wrapping back in. Looks like we have seen Ernesto at his "worst"...in terms of organization. Tonight is going to be very interesting to say the least.

MW

[Aquawind]

There are no credible models forecasting a west coast of FL landfall.

That is what I like to come home and see..

Should be interesting IPR coverage tonight MW..

Stay Safe!

[wxman57]

Like I said it will come in between SC and NC border

How do you know that?

As we've seen over and over again this year - weak, sheared storms are just about impossible to forecast. Maybe it'll come ashore in SC and wind down inland. If it does, then it may not have the opportunity to become a hurricane before landfall. However, a stalled TS over the Carolinas could drop FEET of rain.

Another very plausible possibility would be for it to do a Dennis/Ophelia stall just offshore before moving back to the west and causing a lot of rain. Could be a significantly stronger storm in that case.

[tallywx]

If Ernesto moves along the 5 p.m. track, that could create a tremendous rain event for central NC. Looks like a front will stall out across NC on Wed., with a warm season CAD (cold-air damming) event piling moisture up against the Appalachians. Ernesto moving in from the south will only serve to tighten the pressure gradient to reinforce this overrunning and upslope-induced precip. That all before the main energy from Ernesto itself moves right over.

We need the rain, that's for sure.

[mikatnight]

With such favorable conditions, why are they forecasting just a Cat 1? Is it possible that it could go to a 2 or a 3? Also, anyone remember Hurricane Cleo, 1964? It's track is similar to the forecase track.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

Cuban radar site pretty close to current center shows definite increase in banding and convection near center. Center is still by no means offshore. Looks like it could ride along that island-ridden coast for quite some time before being "free and clear" to rapidly intensify, unless we get a diurnal convection blowup so significant that it "pulls" the center offshore. I've seen it happen before. Depends on how strong the high north of the system is.

Yes the center is becoming well-defined in radar returns...the increase in thunderstorms just off-shore are wrapping back in. Looks like we have seen Ernesto at his "worst"...in terms of organization. Tonight is going to be very interesting to say the least.

MW

and a very interesting listen on IPR tonight.

[Canelaw99]

That's my question mika. I'm still not buying this only a TS scenario. It just doesn't seem to make sense to me....

[Wthrman13]

With such favorable conditions, why are they forecasting just a Cat 1? Is it possible that it could go to a 2 or a 3? Also, anyone remember Hurricane Cleo, 1964? It's track is similar to the forecase track.

One of the things that is needed for rapid intensification is a fairly-well developed inner core. Ernesto's has been disrupted significantly.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Here are the latest "credible" model plots. I removed the BAMs and the extrapolated track. There are no credible models forecasting a west coast of FL landfall. Consensus is improving for a track along the east coast of FL then into the Carolinas.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto55.gif

Here's a plot of a couple of pretty good consensus models, the ones the NHC has been mentioning in their discussions (CONU, CGUN):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto56.gif

If we go back and look at the history of the consensus overall and specifically the GFDL they have been very useful in track forecasting. The intensity portion has no consensus. It's really basically experience over some data. The GFDL had this system going over Cuba when everyone else was still talking about TX. I am sticking with Georgetown SC as a center of landfall after a short time over S FL. The dropsonde data has really put some consistency in the GFDL this go 'round.

[cheezyWXguy]

Does anyone think that it could miss the florida coast and and hit the cap hatteras area on its recurve out to sea?

[Sanibel]

Using my best eye, I think the center is still well overland.

This could mean a more west track?

[Nimbus]

NHC said in the 5 PM advisory that there is only a twenty percent chance of Ernesto exploding into a major hurricane.

If the storm had been well developed with an eye when it traveled over cuba I would have agreed with those figures. A weaker tropical storm has a better chance of redeveloping over warm SST's with the low shear.

There may be other resons why Ernesto should remain a tropical storm, but the storm is already back out over the water and will be pulling away from the Cuban coastline.

[WxGuy1]

Re: ingredients for rapid intensification... Please refer to Rapid Intensity Predictor, part of Estimating the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI)