TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[tgenius]

Holly.. he's on the verge of that turn..the path seems to be pretty spot on so far..

[HollynLA]

What are the local news channels saying this morning in S FL? Is it being hyped at full alert or has it calmed? (just curious)

[tgenius]

Well.. they are making a very good point... the difference between a 65-70mph TS vs a 75 mph Cat1 is pretty insignificant... so people should not let their guards down

[DESTRUCTION5]

The BAM which was the latest updated has pushed somewhat west, the question being will the other models follow when updated?

You can't use the BAM models for a recurving storm. Use the dynamic models. The CONU and CGUN consensus models, which the NHC has been following closely, have shifted slightly eastward overnight. The better dynamic models are very tightly clustered on a landfall in the upper keys , northward track across the central peninsula, emerging near Daytona Beach, then into SC.

Ernesto looks like a very disorganized TS this morning. It won't have much time to gain any organization by the time it reaches Florida. Maybe some pockets of 50-60 mph wind over water is about it. Rainfall is the main threat from this storm.

I think we have t owatch for a slow down over water with the ridge shifting E..It may give him a few more hrs over water

[HollynLA]

Holly.. he's on the verge of that turn..the path seems to be pretty spot on so far..

And you may be right, but will all due respect, many were saying that last night. I'm just thinking that Ernie may go more west before making that turn, have more time to strengthen, and make landfall on the northern west coast of FL.

[ronjon]

The 06Z GFS has swung way to the left and now follows the west coast all the way up to Port Charlotte-Ft Myers. Interesting to see what the GFDL does with its next run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[28_Storms]

Maybe some pockets of 50-60 mph wind over water is about it. Rainfall is the main threat from this storm.

Have you been to South Florida since Wilma and Katrina last year? If so you'd know that even 50-70 MPH storm could cause a lot of problems for us - there are still so many damanged roofs. KNABB just said this is going to be a wind event for that reason and the storm still has a chance of being a CAT 1.

[tgenius]

Theres roof shingles stacked on ALOT of roofs.. can we say projectile city?

[johngaltfla]

Well that is rather rapidly intensifying for only 15 hours don't you think?

From what I can tell there is 0 wind shear from where he is to the SW coast. We saw Charley go from Cat. 1 to Cat. 4 in no time. I think if he comes in on the West around Naples to Ft. Meyers. Yeah I could see 90 mph.

In all fairness, Charley entered the Gulf a major hurricane

No, he did not. He was a Cat 1 off Cuba, a Cat 2 south of Sanibel. He bombed from a Cat 2 from 1000 the morning of impact to a Cat 4 in 4 hours...believe me, it was terrifying.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

check Ernesto out on the long range key west radar

he appears back to his wnw ways ala 290 degrees or so , look out gulf coast (assumng he turns right)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

How could you possibly tell direction as the center is just appearing on the radar?

[johngaltfla]

We will just have to see when theres enough of a weakness to do it. If it stays weak this will likely start feeling it with in the next 3 or 4 hours. If it bombs or go through a IRC then a west-northwest movement is likely through the keys. With time the weakness should grow stronger intill all parts of the Atmosphere takes this northward. So any where from 3 hours form now a more northwest(Really so) or 24 hours from now.

For John, in case you can't understand that last post I made.

It made perfect since Matt. I just wonder if they are going to get the Gulfstream up for more high altitude readings because if that high holds out long enough, say 12 more hours, that's all the difference in the world between a strong TS in Monroe County and worse into SW Florida...

[caneman]

The 06Z GFS has swung way to the left and now follows the west coast all the way up to Port Charlotte-Ft Myers. Interesting to see what the GFDL does with its next run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Do you have the 06 UKMET?

[DESTRUCTION5]

The 06Z GFS has swung way to the left and now follows the west coast all the way up to Port Charlotte-Ft Myers. Interesting to see what the GFDL does with its next run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Do you have the 06 UKMET?

There is none..Just 12z an 0z

[Damar91]

Any chance that he might stall before landfall due to the change in direction expected?

[caneman]

The 06Z GFS has swung way to the left and now follows the west coast all the way up to Port Charlotte-Ft Myers. Interesting to see what the GFDL does with its next run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Do you have the 06 UKMET?

There is none..Just 12z an 0z

Ok. site I access actually say 06 on it but couldn't acess. Thanks.

[johngaltfla]

The 06Z GFS has swung way to the left and now follows the west coast all the way up to Port Charlotte-Ft Myers. Interesting to see what the GFDL does with its next run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Very interesting. And the GFS has been pretty good with Ernesto thus far.

[tgenius]

To me, I sorta laugh at "way to the left" when the FL penn. is so skinny down there, I think way to the left, I think GOM

[chrisnnavarre]

Ernesto is behind schedule a little I think. Ernesto is behind schedule alot according to this link:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... =flashtool

Could he miss the pickup north all together???




Starting to wonder.

[tgenius]

Now to refresh my memory... forward speed is added to the rotational speed correct? So if say the storm is 60mph, and 14 mph WNW/NW wouldn't that make a totla of 74mph?

[TampaFl]

Looking at the WV loop this morning, it appears that ERnesto is "pointing" to the north west, an indication that this is the direction the storm will follow. Hence IMHO I think this may come ashore somwhere along the SW FL coast. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html