TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[gatorcane]

I think you can see the LLC SSE of Miami...although I caution all to not take this as the exact location of the LLC as it is not good to use composite long-range loops to follow the LLC (I learned my lesson before!!)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[curtadams]

Maps say not much shear but it looks like it's getting some SE shear to me. Outflow is mostly off to the northwest and high cloud rotation seems NW of low cloud rotation as well.

[MiamiensisWx]

I wish the pic was bigger...

Fixed it. Better now?

[SouthFloridawx]

Is that the new position according to the last VDM.

[THead]

To back up my observations and opinions on the location of the possible LLC, based on RECON observations and radar and satellite indications, here is where I think an LLC may be located and why...



Any thoughts? Who agrees? Also, RECON indicates the LLC may have relocated to that location vicinity.

Yeah, that's gotta be where it is. You can see all the "bands" connect to that area, not to mention you can also see rotation there.

[ConvergenceZone]

It is going more North with a jog to the west now you can see it in the last few frame of the loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

watch out carolinas!!!!!!!!!!!! This isn't good news.

[Droop12]

Well, if thats were the center is, this thing is done strengthening. All the convection well away from that area, and moving away quickly.

[curtadams]

Well, if thats were the center is, this thing is done strengthening. All the convection well away from that area, and moving away quickly.

That's just shear. That amount of shear will reduce strengthening but not necessarily entirely prevent it. We've been seeing convective outburst appear and drift off, only to be replaced by new outbursts. Expect that to continue.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah, that's gotta be where it is. You can see all the "bands" connect to that area, not to mention you can also see rotation there.

Also, RECON noted that the LLC may have relocated to that area and noted a marked decrease in the flight-level winds in that region.

For better reference on what I'm talking about...



Also, I disagree that it may stop slow strengthening due to the easterly shearing and this possible location of the LLC. As the trough intrudes into the area, the mid-level Atlantic ridging may eventually weaken at around 36 hours, allowing the easterly shear to decrease and slow strengthening to resume.

[shawn67]

I wish the pic was bigger...

Fixed it. Better now?

And I'll counter with this loop...

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

[SouthFloridawx]

Please see my post above for the last center fix. It has slowed down.

[THead]

Well, if thats were the center is, this thing is done strengthening. All the convection well away from that area, and moving away quickly.

I dunno. On radar you can see a band forming nicely coming out of the north of the "center", sweeping around the east side and SW down into cuba. The banding is starting to look more impressive in general on radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[MiamiensisWx]

And I'll counter with this loop...

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=FloaterImagery&product=Float6Loop&prodnav=none

I still see the same evidence for where I think the LLC is located. Note the inflow pattern and hints of a low-level circulation in that vicinity. Banding supports it, too. Also, I still see a nearly due northwest movement (though not entirely northwest) of that circulation in the vicinity of that possible LLC.

[gatorcane]

Please see my post above for the last center fix. It has slowed down.

It has slowed down? don't say that

[Damar91]

How long before it hits the dreaded Gulf Stream?

[tgenius]

yeah, please tell me that your not totally serious SFLwx...

[gatorcane]

anybody have a map of where the Gulf stream is?

[Droop12]

Well, if thats were the center is, this thing is done strengthening. All the convection well away from that area, and moving away quickly.

I dunno. On radar you can see a band forming nicely coming out of the north of the "center", sweeping around the east side and SW down into cuba. The banding is starting to look more impressive in general on radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

I agree, banding looks nice...but its lacks one main LLC. I see all kinds of swirls in there. Until it picks one, I cant see much strengthening. Now, if there was one solid core with a defined center, I think we'd be seeing some pretty rapid strengthing.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

And I'll counter with this loop...

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=FloaterImagery&product=Float6Loop&prodnav=none

I still see the same evidence for where I think the LLC is located. Note the inflow pattern and hints of a low-level circulation in that vicinity. Banding supports it, too. Also, I still see a nearly due northwest movement (though not entirely northwest) of that circulation in the vicinity of that possible LLC.

Just had a recon fix of about 23.7 79.4 which places it on the SE corner of that convection. Maybe shows less organization but also shows slower speed and further distance from Florida.

[Scorpion]

Its moving too fast. Should be onshore late tonight. Definitely not enough time to do anything. Pressure isn't falling now. That means at the best it will be 1002 mb at landfall or so, at best.