Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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HurricaneMaster_PR
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#41 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:12 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
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#42 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:59 pm

Here's the latest satellite image concentrating on the tropical low approaching the Lesser Antilles for the benefit of those that need to see where the system is:

Image
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#43 Postby Dynamic » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:26 pm

I settle down that the wave in 50W does not have future, neither now nor later. I will put my bet in the one of 35W. :D
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#44 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:55 pm

546
AXNT20 KNHC 312348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 51W S OF 21N MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. THE SFC
LOW REMAINS WEAK AND EASY TO LOCATE AS IT MAINLY A LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF ORGANIZATION....SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
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#45 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:03 pm

I would not count this wave out as it has a low level circulation and could later fire up with the help of the upper level low to the west of it. GFS progresively moves the ULL to the west and the trough that is pulling Ernesto north will pull out. That could leave this wave on a westward course. Of course there is a chance the trough could take this low level with it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
Image
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#46 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:49 pm

Convection in the increase tonight...Lets see if this persists now that is reaching warmer waters as well as encountering a less SAL environment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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#47 Postby NFLDART » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:54 pm

Wait and watch...
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#48 Postby tropicsPR » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:16 pm

Shower activity is increasing and strenghtening...Very interesting

Image
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#49 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:22 pm

Is it possible this could become the next invest
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#50 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:23 pm

The water temps west of 50w are very warm so if this low manages to get persistant convection it may have the chance to develop.
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#51 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:23 pm

one look at that latest sat photo, and it looks like a TD. Small, but well defined. Lots of dry air around it, but the diurnal convective increase might keep it alive.
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#52 Postby hawkeh » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:24 pm

Looking good :bday:
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#53 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:44 pm

Hyperstorm, I would really like to hear your thoughts on the wave now that convection is consolidating as well as expanding...
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#54 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:45 pm

I'm not hyperstorm but it certainly looks like we could have an invest on this low - looking really good tonight...
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#55 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:45 pm

Image

Already the low appears in the Caribbean pic.
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#56 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:46 pm

Luis it looks to be heading right for you, lets hope it doesn't get too strong...

looks like it is moving WSW am I wrong?
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#57 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:51 pm

There seems to be a big TUTT low just off to the west north of the Greater Antilles. Looks like it is clearing out and would leave some favorable UL conditions. It's not July or Aug out there any more. So there won't be a TUTT low this time I'm afraid.

Also as Paul mentions below, you can see all the dry air in front of it - if it can survive that it should be in good shape.

You can see the TUTT low off to the left-hand corner of this water vapor image:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#58 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:53 pm

Lot's of potential but heading into a very dry slot of air on WV. If the convection can persist through the next couple days it has some potential as it approaches the islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
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#59 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:Luis it looks to be heading right for you, lets hope it doesn't get too strong...

looks like it is moving WSW am I wrong?


I think it's westward. The convection might be doing that but the LL circulation seems pretty much west..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html
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#60 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:Luis it looks to be heading right for you, lets hope it doesn't get too strong...

looks like it is moving WSW am I wrong?


No. Appears that way to me as well. In fact, the global model consensus is for the system to move WSW, however the models unanimously weaken and dampen out the vort center. Will be interesting to see if it can actually maintain itself over the next 24 hours.

Not quite closed on the late afternoon QS pass, but given how good the low cloud swirl has looked the past several days, this is simply because the system is moving fast enough to where the ground-relative flow hasn't become westerly on the south side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png
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