TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[Three Blind Mice]

Big difference here in NC between a strengthening storm and a weakening one. Many times hurricanes fall apart as they approach the coast, leaving many to question "What's the big deal?" . Don't know what Ernesto has in store but I like the way S. Stewart thinks and writes on these matters. Remember the Gulf Stream is 60 miles off shore.

PS It sucks prepping in the driven rain this morning!!!

[jasons2k]

I'm not one to criticize the NHC but I agree - a watch 12 hours out is indeed absurd. Make a call one way or the other - and err on the side of caution of necessary.

[Thunder44]

Remember that this is the same forecaster that dropped those hurricane watches yesterday. He is not going to reverse his thinking from yesterday all of a sudden. I, however, think that not issuing warnings for a 60 mph tropical storm that is strengthening and within 12 hours of landfall is irresponsible. It is ALWAYS better to take the path of least regret.

This is not the first time this has happened, however. Just recently in 2005, similar situations occured with Cindy and Emily.

You figure he try to make it up by going ahead with hurricane warnings. But all he seems to do from reading his discussion is throw his hands up in the air and issues hurricane watches, just in case it doesn't do what it's likely to do now. It's kind of funny, if you ask me.

[jasons2k]

And to add to that, what good will it do if they issue a warning 30 miles from landfall?!?! I'm still just shakinhg my head. This is the kind of stuff that gives JB fuel to the fire - and rightfully so in this case.

[storms in NC]

You? I don't know why they are not letting school out so people that live in trailers would have a place to go to. I wouldn't stay in a trailer.

[gatorcane]

Remember that this is the same forecaster that dropped those hurricane watches yesterday. He is not going to reverse his thinking from yesterday all of a sudden. I, however, think that not issuing warnings for a 60 mph tropical storm that is strengthening and within 12 hours of landfall is irresponsible. It is ALWAYS better to take the path of least regret.

This is not the first time this has happened, however. Just recently in 2005, similar situations occured with Cindy and Emily.

You figure he try to make it up by going ahead with hurricane warnings. But all he seems to do from reading his discussion is throw his hands up in the air and issues hurricane watches, just in case it doesn't do what it's likely to do now. It's kind of funny, if you ask me.

It's yet just another way Ernesto has been so unpredictable and has embarrassed the models and forecasts.

Ernesto is going to be some after case study for many I think

[Josephine96]

They haven't even let schools out yet? did I hear you right? Oh..K

[Three Blind Mice]

Wilmington, NC schools are not out and no word on Friday..

[BUD]

There's going to be some upset tourists sitting in the dark in their hotel rooms tonight with a hurricane pounding on their doors and no flashlights or bottled water. Red Cross hasn't opened any centers here and I'm not sure if the governor has to to that, or if hurricane warnings is their guideline for opening.,,,

I'm getting so frustrated!!

Yep, your right but look at people who has to work in this crap tonight.To worried about the money and not peoples lives.

[tolakram]

I don't agree with the 'irresponsability'.

If hurricane watches stayed in effect and this thing hit as a tropical storm then wolf is cried. If this thing is supposed to be a tropical storm and it hits as a minimal hurricane then people might begin to better understand how hard it is to forcast these things and pay better attention.

Both situations are not ideal, but which one will keep people paying attention?

I think us amateurs need to back off and observe the scientific and political (if you will) ramifications of hurricane forcasting. It's a lose lose situation made worse by uninformed people second guessing the professionals.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z UKMET had it intesifying rapidly before landfall.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2006



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 80.2W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 31.08.2006 28.0N 80.2W WEAK

12UTC 31.08.2006 30.9N 79.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2006 33.7N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 01.09.2006 36.0N 77.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 02.09.2006 37.3N 77.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 02.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL

[Okibeach]

You? I don't know why they are not letting school out so people that live in trailers would have a place to go to. I wouldn't stay in a trailer.

Schools are closing around noon here in Brunswick. Now that the watch was issued the community college is now cancelling as well. Yesterday the college insisted it would not close so maybe issuing the watch, even late, pushed some to better decisions.

[storms in NC]

No they haven't I called the school and they don't know any thing. This is not right to the ones who wold leave their home to besafe.

[MyrtleBeachGal]

Horry County Schools will NOT be getting out early today. Brunswick County to the north of us is letting out at noon and Georgetown County to the south of us is closed all day today.

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com

[westmoon]

Three Blind Mice,

Wilmington, NC schools are not out and no word on Friday..

Your kidding right?? Have they opened any shelters or started recomending evacuations yet?

[Three Blind Mice]

No! Wish I was kidding.

[fci]

There's going to be some upset tourists sitting in the dark in their hotel rooms tonight with a hurricane pounding on their doors and no flashlights or bottled water. Red Cross hasn't opened any centers here and I'm not sure if the governor has to to that, or if hurricane warnings is their guideline for opening.,,,

I'm getting so frustrated!!

Oh, don't fret.

They issued a "Hurricane Watch" for you.
Which means ABSOLUTLEY NOTHING!!!!!

Hey, Ernesto is past me but I am so frustrated when there appears to be a breakdown in logic by the usually incredibly logical NHC!!!

I f we got a Hurricane Watch here a day in advance for a weakened system that was passing over the mountains of Cuba; then how can you not get one kept up for a deepening system passing over mostly warm swamp water in Florida??

It just confounds me.

[MyrtleBeachGal]

The people that live in trailors have no where to go.. there's no centers to go to. The schools ARE our hurricane evacuation centers.

[HURAKAN]

Probably looking the best it has looked!!!

[BUD]

They haven't even let schools out yet? did I hear you right? Oh..K

All Horry county schools open today but other county did not.Me I will not put my little girls live in there hands.SO she stay home with me.