T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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fci
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#41 Postby fci » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:thanks x-y-no for the update, somehow I feel possible future Florence has southeast coast of Florida written all over it - although there is no meterological reasoning for my feelings. Now the GFS is taking it farther to the left and faster (meteorologically that is because it thinks the ridge will be stronger than originally anticipated).


I'm a little uneasy too on this one.
Andrew and Francis flash through my mind.
We're probably wrong and hey; this may not even survive the next couple of days with any luck!
But I will be watching until it either disappates or passes us far enough away.

Ernesto was a good dry run and at least people have supplies if this one (or another) defy climatology and threatens us.
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#42 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:53 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I see x98's low off to the SW but I can't make out TD6's low that was there earlier today to the NE.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls


wouldn't be surprised if x98's low takes over and TD 6 moves about 100 miles SW. If that happened all model tracks can be thrown out at this point.


True,2006 season at its best... :lol:
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#43 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:15 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Convection is firing up, but it isn't firing around the center.
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#44 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I see x98's low off to the SW but I can't make out TD6's low that was there earlier today to the NE.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls


wouldn't be surprised if x98's low takes over and TD 6 moves about 100 miles SW. If that happened all model tracks can be thrown out at this point.


Great Scott!!! I think it is happening! I had feared that TD 6 and X98L would merge and form a new center to the SW... and I was sure that X98L was being absorbed by TD6... but it now appears to me that (and this is just my opinion) that X98L is now increasing in organization, while TD 6 is being sheared into oblivion. Now, if X98L develops, it could be TD7, and again, this is just my opinion... It now appears that TD 6 is fading to black... Fascinating!
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#45 Postby tgenius » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:16 pm

I don't think that TD6 is dead or close to it.. but its really an UGLY looking system right now. :D
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#46 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:16 pm

I agree, x98L looks better than TD6 right now. Wouldn't be surprised if that became the primary low.
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#47 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:19 pm

Wow, looks like we got a mini fujiwara going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

It could be possible that that big blob to the NW of ex98L could be the new center of TD6 and ex98L could turn into TD7.
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#48 Postby StormWarning1 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:22 pm

Not out of the question TD 6 gets the downgrade to a wave, if even that, at 11pm.
Ex98L doesn't look like much either.
Shear wins, again.
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#49 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:23 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Wow, looks like we got a mini fujiwara going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

It could be possible that that big blob to the NW of ex98L could be the new center of TD6 and ex98L could turn into TD7.


convection is starting to fire up for the first time today
Last edited by Trugunzn on Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#50 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:23 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I see x98's low off to the SW but I can't make out TD6's low that was there earlier today to the NE.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls


wouldn't be surprised if x98's low takes over and TD 6 moves about 100 miles SW. If that happened all model tracks can be thrown out at this point.


Great Scott!!! I think it is happening! I had feared that TD 6 and X98L would merge and form a new center to the SW... and I was sure that X98L was being absorbed by TD6... but it now appears to me that (and this is just my opinion) that X98L is now increasing in organization, while TD 6 is being sheared into oblivion. Now, if X98L develops, it could be TD7, and again, this is just my opinion... It now appears that TD 6 is fading to black... Fascinating!


You indeed sound like the true Emmett Brown. lol.....
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#51 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:26 pm

tgenius wrote:I don't think that TD6 is dead or close to it.. but its really an UGLY looking system right now. :D



You hurt her feelings. She is going to come after you now.
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#52 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:26 pm

WXMAN57 I see you are on now. What do you think with what you see right now? 2 dissorganized systems, or are they combining?
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#53 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:29 pm

Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it. Appears that southwesterly shear is fairly strong over it, and it's having trouble integrating the remains of 98L. No QuikSCAT available this afternoon to confirm anything, no obs, and no recon. So we'll all be guessing overnight. But let's hope it's just a wave in the morning, right?
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#54 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it. Appears that southwesterly shear is fairly strong over it, and it's having trouble integrating the remains of 98L. No QuikSCAT available this afternoon to confirm anything, no obs, and no recon. So we'll all be guessing overnight. But let's hope it's just a wave in the morning, right?


yeah but what about ex98L to the SW. I see some rotation and some convection is now firing around it - any chance this will take dominance?
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#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:33 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 042330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 43.5 305./ 9.9
6 16.9 44.4 293./10.0
12 17.2 45.6 284./11.4
18 17.5 46.9 285./13.1
24 18.0 47.8 296./ 9.4
30 18.5 48.6 300./ 9.6
36 19.2 49.2 322./ 8.8
42 19.8 49.8 315./ 8.8
48 20.4 50.8 302./11.1
54 21.0 52.0 296./12.0
60 21.6 53.4 293./14.7
66 22.2 55.0 290./15.9
72 22.6 56.9 282./17.9
78 22.8 58.3 278./13.8
84 23.0 60.2 278./17.4
90 23.2 61.8 277./14.9
96 23.3 63.3 273./13.8
102 23.3 64.7 271./12.1
108 23.5 65.8 278./10.8
114 23.8 66.8 285./ 9.8
120 24.2 67.7 299./ 8.5
126 24.7 68.5 301./ 8.8

I am posting the 18z GFDL run but what is going on now with TD 6 means nothing as it's very disorganized.
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#56 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it. Appears that southwesterly shear is fairly strong over it, and it's having trouble integrating the remains of 98L. No QuikSCAT available this afternoon to confirm anything, no obs, and no recon. So we'll all be guessing overnight. But let's hope it's just a wave in the morning, right?



why cant we have just a NORMAL TD for once or TS for that matter...sheesh.... :D

If Td6 did open up, you can throw all those model runs out the window....
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#57 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it. Appears that southwesterly shear is fairly strong over it, and it's having trouble integrating the remains of 98L. No QuikSCAT available this afternoon to confirm anything, no obs, and no recon. So we'll all be guessing overnight. But let's hope it's just a wave in the morning, right?


yeah but what about ex98L to the SW. I see some rotation and some convection is now firing around it - any chance this will take dominance?


I think there may be a very broad, elongated low pressure area encompassing both systems now, perhaps hundreds of miles across. It's certainly possible that it will eventually reorganize, but I doubt it'll become a TS tomorrow. It has to have a well-defined LLC with convergence first.

No doubt this system would not qualify for an upgrade to a TD in the state it's in.
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#58 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it. Appears that southwesterly shear is fairly strong over it, and it's having trouble integrating the remains of 98L. No QuikSCAT available this afternoon to confirm anything, no obs, and no recon. So we'll all be guessing overnight. But let's hope it's just a wave in the morning, right?


yeah but what about ex98L to the SW. I see some rotation and some convection is now firing around it - any chance this will take dominance?


I think there may be a very broad, elongated low pressure area encompassing both systems now, perhaps hundreds of miles across. It's certainly possible that it will eventually reorganize, but I doubt it'll become a TS tomorrow. It has to have a well-defined LLC with convergence first.

No doubt this system would not qualify for an upgrade to a TD in the state it's in.


Okay thanks
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#59 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:45 pm

WRF shows this storm being weak till it gets to the lesser antiles and drops it to 980 mbs. Keeps it at a wsestward track for a long time

Image
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#60 Postby Toadstool » Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it. Appears that southwesterly shear is fairly strong over it, and it's having trouble integrating the remains of 98L. No QuikSCAT available this afternoon to confirm anything, no obs, and no recon. So we'll all be guessing overnight. But let's hope it's just a wave in the morning, right?


I cheer for shear! :) Probably too much to ask for it to work for the next couple of months, but I like it so far.
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