The Sleeper down in latitud east of Southern Windwards?

Zardoz · #41 Postby **Zardoz** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 9:56 am

Slow this loop down and you can really see the beginnings of rotation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Looks like it's just going to barely squeak by under that trough.

alan1961 · #42 Postby **alan1961** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:28 pm

The only problem i can see if this tries to get going is not so much the low latitude but that inhibiting shear thats been forever coming off of south america, at the moment its got a good run up to that land mass, if it could start to develop in the next few days it would have a chance depending on intensification and obviously florence's affects above it..lets see what it does :wink:

chrisnnavarre · #43 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:47 pm

Somethings bound to slip through sooner or latter and the GOM is ripe for intensification. I just can't see this season ending like a dud fire cracker. Chris made a run at it and failed lets see if this little guy can do it now.

#44 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:51 pm

Don't you think the GOM should be nice and quite this year. I am sure there is some that sure would like to have it very quite. They need to rest for a few years

#45 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:53 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
This area has very little shear to deal with during the next few days. The thing that it is lacking it's a good bit of convection and not a lot of low level convergence.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

This area will definitely escape the rath of the Central Atlantic Trough.

#46 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:55 pm

I can't understand why the NHC didn't mention it in the TWO?

chrisnnavarre · #47 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:59 pm

storms in NC wrote:Don't you think the GOM should be nice and quite this year. I am sure there is some that sure would like to have it very quite. They need to rest for a few years

Well after Ivan and Dennis we've just learned to live with storms over here in
Navarre. It would be nice for a break however, but I just think somethings going to slip through. There has not been a year that I have lived here that we didn't at least deal with some kind of tropical weather.

Rainband · #48 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:04 pm

October is the greatest risk for my area on the west coast. I hope it is as quiet as it has been so far here. 8-)

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:23 pm

AN E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND HAS LITTLE WAVE STRUCTURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT IS MAINLY AHEAD OF THE ANALYZED AXIS
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

Finnally TPC has this area as a wave but the convection is ahead of the axis.

weatherwindow · #50 Postby **weatherwindow** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:17 am

luis...IMO, given the persistent troughiness and the hostile UL environment extant this year...the only CV disturbances with a chance for serious development and reaching the lesser antilles and caribbean, are the lowriders that you allude to....i would put the critical latitude range at between 9-11degN....there are certainly a number of historical precedences ie, georges, donna, hugo, hazel et al. ....soooo let keep a weather eye on 10/37 and the easternmost disturbance still over africa .......rich

Zardoz · #51 Postby **Zardoz** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:55 pm

It's still chugging right along, but now it may start interacting with 93L:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Sanibel · #52 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:47 pm

Think you made a mistake Cycloneye. I was talking about the one at 8N - 47W

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:51 pm

Sanibel wrote:Think you made a mistake Cycloneye. I was talking about the one at 8N - 47W

That is the one I haved been following since it came off Africa at low latitud.

Sanibel · #54 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 2:53 pm

Oh. I think some people in here are referring to the deeper one to the west off Africa.

In any case, it looks like it could convect and form if it hits favorability.

Zardoz · #55 Postby **Zardoz** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 4:46 pm

Is there a center of rotation forming at about 8.5N 45W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Anthonyl · #56 Postby **Anthonyl** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 4:48 pm

That's right Zardoz a 1011mb low as been initialised.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #57 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:55 pm

Anthonyl wrote:That's right Zardoz a 1011mb low as been initialised.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

#58 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 6:43 pm

Looks like it's waking up a little bit tonight with the new low.

rockyman · #59 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 6:48 pm

Based on this steering map, the sleeper will stay south until at least the Caribbean:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 7:02 pm

A 1011 MB LOW IS ADDED TO THE 18 UTC ANALYSIS NEAR 9N45W. THIS
CIRCULATION IS EASILY SEEN ON VIS AND SHORTWAVE IMAGES. HOWEVER
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND WELL WEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 49W-51W. IN ADDITION...
THIS ACTIVITY IS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

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The Sleeper down in latitud east of Southern Windwards?

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