CrazyC83's Gordon Forecast #18 - Gordon's European Adventure

[CrazyC83]

There will be no updates on Gordon or Helene at this time, and likely not at 11pm either, due to the tornado outbreak shifting attention and the fact that they are not land threats.

[storms in NC]

Gordon is moving slowlt

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #17

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Never Say Die!!! After sleepwalking through the advisories and ignoring Gordon, he can no longer be ignored now. This is serious, folks. Despite cooler waters and shear, Gordon has become considerably more organized, with a well-defined eye and very solid outflow despite poor conditions. The Dvorak estimates suggest as high as 110 kt, while Quikscat and the NHC agree on 85 kt. I am a bit skeptical of all those numbers having seen surprising resiliency on high-latitude storms. The initial intensity is set at 90 kt.

The track is clear - the Azores should be prepared for a direct hit from Gordon. It could be enough to cause significant damage on the islands, especially the northern ones. I am pretty sure Gordon will still be a hurricane when it passes north, possibly at or near its current intensity. After that, Gordon should finally become extratropical while still a strong storm on the way to Europe.

The cone is now a 3-day cone and goes off the map.



Current - 38.0/41.6 - 968mb - 105mph
12 hrs - 38.9/35.8 - 972mb - 100mph
24 hrs - 39.8/30.3 - 978mb - 85mph - Near NW Azores
36 hrs - 40.5/22.7 - 984mb - 75mph - Transition to Extratropical
48 hrs - 41.9/14.7 - 980mb - 70mph - Extratropical
60 hrs - 42.3/7.3 - 978mb - 70mph - Inland, Extratropical
72 hrs - Absorbed by front

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Gordon Prediction #18

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gordon really doesn't want to die, but climatology has to take over sooner or later. Nonetheless, there are no immediate signs of extratropical transition, even though the eye is no longer well-defined. The initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt in agreement with the NHC.

The big question mark remains: will Gordon maintain himself all the way to mainland Europe, will he get caught in the front or will he go extratropical? Most signs suggest the latter but there is an outside chance that Gordon could still be a tropical storm (not a hurricane) when final landfall could be made. We are still waiting for reports from the Azores...

The cone is now a 3-day cone and goes off the map. The map is the old one as the current design does not include the far-northeast Atlantic.



Current - 37.7/28.1 - 980mb - 80mph
12 hrs - 38.4/22.3 - 983mb - 75mph
24 hrs - 39.7/16.4 - 985mb - 70mph - Transition to Extratropical
36 hrs - 40.5/10.1 - 983mb - 65mph - Extratropical
48 hrs - 42.4/4.8 - 983mb - 60mph - Extratropical
60 hrs - Absorbed by front

[wxmann_91]

Nonetheless, there are no immediate signs of extratropical transition, even though the eye is no longer well-defined.

Actually, the latest sats show the LLC exposed with convection being sheared to the east, with signs of a front developing to the south.

IMO, extratropical transition is likely to finish within the next 36-48 hr.

[gpickett00]

yeah sure, its going to be a devastating landfall, just like you wishcast every storm to be