HH Helene Forecasts

[Evil Jeremy]

Helene continues westward.

What seemed to be a WNW motion earlier seemed to be a wobble, and it has resumed a Westward motion at an estimated 15 MPH.

Winds are still estimated to be at 50 MPH and with a lowered pressure of 1003 MB.

The models continue to forecast a huge break in the ridge. In fact, yesterday morning, models forecasted it to be starting a recurve right about now, which is not happening. I do expect a break large enough to cause a NW motion, but only for 24 hours tops. This should begin in around 48-72 hours now. After that NW motion, it should resume a West to WNW motion for the rest of the five day period.

The wind field continues to grow, and the TS winds now extend to up 105 Miles in diameter.

Our current center position is a little more south and west of the current NHC position.

INITIAL 50 MPH
12HR VT 55 MPH
24HR VT 60 MPH
36HR VT 65 MPH
48HR VT 75 MPH
72HR VT 75 MPH
96HR VT 100 MPH
120HR VT 105 MPH

The intensity guidance looks very reasonable. I strongly disagree with your track, however. Way too far south and west. Your track implies a serious threat to the islands, a threat which does not exist at this time.

did you notice the dotted line part of my track? everything in there still remains a possibillity, and my cone heads a lilttle bit more north at eeach advisory.

[Windtalker1]

The majic words...."at this time"

[sma10]

did you notice the dotted line part of my track? everything in there still remains a possibillity, and my cone heads a lilttle bit more north at eeach advisory.

Yes I did notice the dotted outlined cone. My point was that any reasonable person looking at that track and cone, would have to assume a significant threat to the islands, mostly because a good percentage of that cone suggests a trajectory towards the islands.

[sma10]

The majic words...."at this time"

Absolutely correct, Windtalker.

If there is currently no threat to the islands "at this time" why would one want to post a forecast that threatens the islands?

[Windtalker1]

The majic words...."at this time"

Absolutely correct, Windtalker.

If there is currently no threat to the islands "at this time" why would one want to post a forecast that threatens the islands?

Because that's his forecast and that's what he believes as do I. There is so much uncertainty about where this is heading that its any ones guess.

[sma10]

The majic words...."at this time"

Absolutely correct, Windtalker.

If there is currently no threat to the islands "at this time" why would one want to post a forecast that threatens the islands?

Because that's his forecast and that's what he believes as do I. There is so much uncertainty about where this is heading that its any ones guess.

Oh, so you also believe that Helene is heading towards the islands. What is your reasoning? Other than your "gut" I mean.

[Normandy]

The majic words...."at this time"

Absolutely correct, Windtalker.

If there is currently no threat to the islands "at this time" why would one want to post a forecast that threatens the islands?

Because that's his forecast and that's what he believes as do I. There is so much uncertainty about where this is heading that its any ones guess.

Oh, so you also believe that Helene is heading towards the islands. What is your reasoning? Other than your "gut" I mean.

First ask urself why is Gordon moving ENE and almost E? What would cause Gordon to deviate so far off track?

My thinking is the same as Jeremy's, except I see it missing the islands to the north

[Windtalker1]

The majic words...."at this time"

Absolutely correct, Windtalker.

If there is currently no threat to the islands "at this time" why would one want to post a forecast that threatens the islands?

Because that's his forecast and that's what he believes as do I. There is so much uncertainty about where this is heading that its any ones guess.

Oh, so you also believe that Helene is heading towards the islands. What is your reasoning? Other than your "gut" I mean.

from what I see right now and from what Local S Florida Mets are saying is this.....1) Gordon seems to be heading off his track...now more of an ENE heading probably around the Northern High that's there 2) if this is happening, then maybe, just maybe the high is stretching further West than anticipated. 3) local Mets say this so called "Strong Cold Front" is in fact very "Weak" and is expected to stall in Central Florida by Saturday and "Fizzle" out by Sunday making way for a "Strong" high to build in from West to East next week with South East winds here next week meaning there is High pressure to our East. If this front fizzles and doesn't make it's way into the Atlantic then there is no front to cause the weakness......To sum it all up, there are alot of "IFS"

[sma10]

from what I see right now and from what Local S Florida Mets are saying is this.....1) Gordon seems to be heading off his track...now more of an ENE heading probably around the Northern High that's there 2) if this is happening, then maybe, just maybe the high is stretching further West than anticipated. 3) local Mets say this so called "Strong Cold Front" is in fact very "Weak" and is expected to stall in Central Florida by Saturday and "Fizzle" out by Sunday making way for a "Strong" high to build in from West to East next week with South East winds here next week meaning there is High pressure to our East. If this front fizzles and doesn't make it's way into the Atlantic then there is no front to cause the weakness......To sum it all up, there are alot of "IFS"

I hear you and I agree with you -- there are a lot of IFS. There are ALWAYS some IFS.

Where I question you is what does a building high over S. Florida have anything to do with Helene 2500 miles away? Also, have you considered the possiblity that with Gordon slowing down and drifting ENE he is now in a position to considerably dent (aka weaken) the high to the North of Helene? In fact, this is what the GFS has depicted the last several days in a row: Gordon slows down instead of getting the heck out of the way; he creates a huge weakness in the ridge forcing Helene to slow down and turn northwestward.

[Windtalker1]

I hear what your saying also....by Sunday she will not be 2500 miles away. Front will fizzle, high builds back in extending into the Atlantic, ridge over her now is expending West and Gordon is riding the ridge not forcing a weakness. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Damar91]

It's too bad this board wasn't around when Andrew was here. I can only imagine the discussions that would have taken place.

[sma10]

I hear what your saying also....by Sunday she will not be 2500 miles away. Front will fizzle, high builds back in extending into the Atlantic, ridge over her now is expending West and Gordon is riding the ridge not forcing a weakness. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

So what you're saying is......

As the front fizzles, a high will build back and extend all the way east to bridge with the current high that is currently over Helene. Right?

Theoretically, this action is possible, but my question is (and has been): what special knowledge do you have that you can foresee this that every computer model is unable to see?

[AJC3]

So what you're saying is......

As the front fizzles, a high will build back and extend all the way east to bridge with the current high that is currently over Helene. Right?

Theoretically, this action is possible, but my question is (and has been): what special knowledge do you have that you can foresee this that every computer model is unable to see?

I'm not a big fan of resurrecting my own posts, however, here is what I said earlier about how I see things playing out...

1) The current eastern CONUS trough should drop ESE and split off the weaker western nose of the ATLC ridge, causing it to retrograde back westward toward the GOMEX. This should cause Helene to acquire an increasing northward component of motion, first toward the WNW and then eventually NW.

2) It's the second longer wave trough currently digging into the western CONUS that should eventually slam the door on any ideas that Helene might have about getting close to the U.S. mainland. By days 6-7 there is what can only be described as a complete and utter flattening of the mean mid to upper level flow over the western ATLC north of 20-22N.

Unless you see a trend, in either the model guidance, or the actual water vapor imagery, toward both of these scenarios not panning out over the next couple days, then there's little chance for anything but a close pass to the NE Caribbean islands, and a clean recurve well east of the U.S. mainland.

One more thing to note is that, whilst moving under the strongest portion of the deep layer mean ridge to the north, Helene continues to slowly gain latitude. Helene is now leaving that portion of the ridge, and I think this indicates a slow but inexorable bend from WNW to NW is in the offing.

[sma10]

So what you're saying is......

As the front fizzles, a high will build back and extend all the way east to bridge with the current high that is currently over Helene. Right?

Theoretically, this action is possible, but my question is (and has been): what special knowledge do you have that you can foresee this that every computer model is unable to see?

I'm not a big fan of resurrecting my own posts, however, here is what I said earlier about how I see things playing out...

1) The current eastern CONUS trough should drop ESE and split off the weaker western nose of the ATLC ridge, causing it to retrograde back westward toward the GOMEX. This should cause Helene to acquire an increasing northward component of motion, first toward the WNW and then eventually NW.

2) It's the second longer wave trough currently digging into the western CONUS that should eventually slam the door on any ideas that Helene might have about getting close to the U.S. mainland. By days 6-7 there is what can only be described as a complete and utter flattening of the mean mid to upper level flow over the western ATLC north of 20-22N.

Unless you see a trend, in either the model guidance, or the actual water vapor imagery, toward both of these scenarios not panning out over the next couple days, then there's little chance for anything but a close pass to the NE Caribbean islands, and a clean recurve well east of the U.S. mainland.

One more thing to note is that, whilst moving under the strongest portion of the deep layer mean ridge to the north, Helene continues to slowly gain latitude. Helene is now leaving that portion of the ridge, and I think this indicates a slow but inexorable bend from WNW to NW is in the offing.

AJC:

No need to sell me on this; I've been in complete agreement with you from the very start. It's just others have different ideas that they seem to be quite sure of and I can't seem to get anyone to provide a scientific case for these "alternative" ideas.

[Evil Jeremy]

back on the topic, please!

[sma10]

back on the topic, please!

LOL!!!

We ARE on topic. The topic is your forecast! The discussion is about the rationale behind your forecasts!

[Evil Jeremy]

ok. i just re-arived and saw al this stuff i didnt recognize.

[fci]

back on the topic, please!

Couldn't be an more ON TOPIC than it is already!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

The Midnight Update:


Helene developing an inner core of convection.
Just when we were going to lessen the wind speeds of Helene, we noticed that convection has increased dramatically near the center.
Wind speeds are near 50 MPH, and has a estimated pressure of 1002 MB.
We now have Helene moving due west at a slightly 16 MPH. this is based of on the new satellite imagery.

[wxmann_91]

I will be absolutely shocked and amazed if this does not curve east of Bermuda, well away from the Caribbean.

There is just no ridge, pattern is too progressive and troughs are everywhere.