CrazyC83's Helene Forecast #19 - Drastic change - out to sea

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Also Wilma was in the heat sink of the SW Caribbean Sea. The Oceanic Heat Content there is enormous, especially last year!

[CrazyC83]

Crazy, I have to ask, what do you see that could possibly make this storm stay that far south? Not questioning your forecast, I just don't see anything, but maybe you see something different. Thanks!

Well, there are several things I see keeping it there:

1) The constant thought of the models creating a low to the northwest to steer it that way, which has not happened yet.

2) The initiation of the storm much farther north by the models.

3) Gordon being farther away will prevent Helene from being sucked in.

It has moved to the right overall from some earlier predictions - I had it going head-on into the islands originally if it was extrapolated, now it just goes north. Also that doesn't automatically send it to the east coast - it could still recurve from there.

[CrazyC83]

BTW, I haven't always predicted monsters. Look at the first prediction for Gordon - then I wasn't sure it was going to survive (it did and it thrived!).

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Helene Prediction #8

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There are too many conflicting signals here to describe. First of all, the center is hard to find and very large. I made the estimate on Quikscat data, placing it well to the south of the NHC estimate. Second, the intensity is a tough one - there are some signs of a strengthed storm but marginally. For the moment, I will hold the initial intensity at 40 kt, although that may be conservative.

The track is shifted a bit to the right, but not nearly as much as the NHC suggests. I still don't think the upper-level low will form which would steer Helene northwest. The track has slowed, and so has the intensity forecast. Nonetheless, Helene could still be a very dangerous hurricane in the days ahead.



Current - 12.9/37.3 - 1001mb - 45mph
12 hrs - 13.2/39.5 - 999mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 13.6/42.1 - 994mb - 60mph
36 hrs - 14.0/44.5 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 14.7/46.8 - 982mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 15.4/48.7 - 973mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 16.5/50.8 - 958mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 17.8/54.8 - 945mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.2/59.7 - 935mb - 145mph

[storms in NC]

I think you are about the only one that see's this. I think you are very right.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Helene Prediction #9

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene is a difficult storm to locate, with two conflicting centers analyzed by Quikscat rotating at different times - one at about 12.5N and another at about 15.0N. For now, the latter one is correct, but new center reformations could adjust the track, and have a profound impact later. The initial intensity was going to be increased until convection declined this evening. Hence it is left at 40 kt.

The track remains up in the air depending on where the ultimate center begins, which could determine whether or not it hits or misses troughs. However, there is no obvious hinderance for development at this point - and the conditions only get better. The large circulation will keep development slow, but once fully developed, the danger level skyrockets. Residents of the Lesser Antilles, especially the northern islands, should monitor the progression of Helene.



Current - 14.8/38.0 - 1000mb - 45mph
12 hrs - 14.9/40.2 - 998mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 15.3/42.6 - 995mb - 60mph
36 hrs - 16.1/44.6 - 994mb - 60mph
48 hrs - 17.3/47.0 - 988mb - 70mph
60 hrs - 18.5/49.7 - 976mb - 90mph
72 hrs - 19.5/52.3 - 959mb - 110mph
96 hrs - 21.1/57.0 - 948mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 23.2/61.9 - 938mb - 140mph

[Bane]

i think your intensity is way too high, but that is to be expected.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Helene Prediction #10

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene has really got her act together this morning and is really strengthening. The structure looks like that of a true tropical storm, although no eyewall is present. Intensity estimates range from 50 to 61 kt according to Dvorak estimates available. The forward motion has slowed down as well. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.

The track is dependant on Gordon. If he stays where he is and creeps slowly, the ridge will have an opening for Helene to go through. If he moves faster and pushes out to sea in the next 24 hours, the hole will close, forcing Helene westward as unanimously suggested by the computer models. Right now, my projected track suggests the latter still (although a track right of previous tracks and slower), but that can change in a hurry and that recurve may still easily happen. Either way, expect a very powerful hurricane.



Current - 14.6/41.3 - 995mb - 65mph
12 hrs - 15.2/42.7 - 985mb - 70mph
24 hrs - 16.0/44.7 - 979mb - 85mph
36 hrs - 16.8/46.5 - 970mb - 100mph
48 hrs - 17.6/48.0 - 962mb - 105mph
60 hrs - 18.6/49.8 - 954mb - 115mph
72 hrs - 19.8/51.9 - 945mb - 125mph
96 hrs - 21.3/54.4 - 936mb - 145mph
120 hrs - 22.3/58.0 - 933mb - 145mph

[gpickett00]

How come all of your predictions include an arrow pointing at the US and insanely high intensities? Conditions down the road 120 hours arent favorable for a strong category four hurricane.

[StormWarning1]

The center looks to be at 16.5N 41W on this recent shot from NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables
It's gaining latitude quickly.
Only mystery left to solve with Helene is how far West it gets. I am thinking maybe 55W, way up around 30N.

[skufful]

Looking at the visible, I can't tell if that's a serious jog north or an optical illusion.

[Bane]

most model guidance say she going to recurve, not turn back west.

[storms in NC]

the NOGAPS model does show a west track than the others. NOGAPS model have been good this year on the storms. So we will have to wait and see what happens the next 24 hours I think would tell.

[storms in NC]

Looking at the visible, I can't tell if that's a serious jog north or an optical illusion.

I just looked at the vloop and did a zoom and it is still moving WNW there wasn't a serious jog north. What I think you see is a blow up to the north of the center. JMHO

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Helene Prediction #11

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Storm Helene is rapidly approaching hurricane intensity. There are signs that an eye is trying to develop. However, no satellite estimates back up hurricane intensity. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt, in agreement with the NHC.

The track forecast is problematic. Gordon has a major say in this, as if he moves away, time opens up for the ridge to close up and keep Helene on a WNW track. That is what I am still sensing, as opposed to an early recurve. The track keeps Helene over water for the next 5 days, however, it increases her to an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and leaves Helene there.



Current - 16.3/41.4 - 990mb - 70mph
12 hrs - 17.0/42.9 - 981mb - 85mph
24 hrs - 17.6/44.7 - 972mb - 100mph
36 hrs - 18.1/46.3 - 961mb - 110mph
48 hrs - 19.5/48.0 - 948mb - 125mph
60 hrs - 20.4/49.8 - 942mb - 135mph
72 hrs - 21.7/52.3 - 934mb - 145mph
96 hrs - 22.6/55.3 - 939mb - 135mph
120 hrs - 24.3/59.7 - 936mb - 140mph

[HurricaneHunter914]

I like your trakc, I think the ridge might build in quicker causing a more westward track. I think the intensity is a little too crazy.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Helene Prediction #12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

After strengthening solidly throughout the afternoon, the trend levelled off this evening. There remains no clear eyewall present at this time, and no guidance to suggest that Helene has reached hurricane intensity. The initial intensity is maintained at 60 kt.

After looking at the steering currents, the northwest turn would have to happen very soon to be able to escape through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, following Gordon. Since the movement remains west to west-northwest, I am thinking that Helene will fail to enter the escape channel and will continue on the west-northwest path north of the Caribbean islands. Fortunately for the US mainland, a trough stands in the way, which unless it weakens greatly or moves north, should ultimately turn Helene back. As for the intensity, there is little change. There is no obvious influences to prevent Helene from becoming an extremely dangerous hurricane by early next week.



Current - 16.8/43.5 - 989mb - 70mph
12 hrs - 17.6/45.2 - 982mb - 80mph
24 hrs - 18.4/46.8 - 976mb - 90mph
36 hrs - 19.8/48.3 - 966mb - 105mph
48 hrs - 20.9/50.0 - 953mb - 120mph
60 hrs - 22.0/51.7 - 943mb - 135mph
72 hrs - 22.6/53.6 - 938mb - 145mph
96 hrs - 23.4/57.5 - 936mb - 145mph
120 hrs - 24.2/62.3 - 935mb - 140mph

[Windtalker1]

They are already saying here in South Florida that this big front that is to come through Wednesday is now not going to be as strong as they expected.

[sma10]

I figure in about 4 days time Helene is going to be some awesome sight (probably a cat 3 or 4) and she will give the good folks of Bermuda a heart attack. My guess is she'll end up passing about 300 miles east of Bermuda when it's all said and done.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Helene Prediction #14

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Helene went into rapid intensification overnight and has jumped enormously in intensity while maintaining a large, open eye. Dvorak estimates show a range of values as high as 108 kt. I will increase the initial intensity to 100 kt - although higher than the NHC, it seems like my best estimate.

With shear still low and water temperatures still very warm, there is a good chance for additional strengthening. I still easily see Helene becoming a Category 4 hurricane before levelling off and eventually weakening gradually with eyewall replacement cycles and increased shear. The general movement of WNW to NW should continue for the next 72 hours - after that it is either due north or due west then northwest depending on what happens with the ridge. I suspect it will close up and force Helene west then northwest.



Current - 20.5/49.0 - 962mb - 115mph
12 hrs - 21.3/50.3 - 960mb - 115mph
24 hrs - 22.0/51.6 - 952mb - 125mph
36 hrs - 22.7/52.9 - 946mb - 135mph
48 hrs - 23.5/54.4 - 938mb - 145mph
60 hrs - 23.8/56.3 - 934mb - 145mph
72 hrs - 24.0/58.1 - 937mb - 140mph
96 hrs - 24.6/62.3 - 941mb - 135mph
120 hrs - 26.5/65.4 - 946mb - 125mph