Tropical Depression Lane in EPAC=Last Advisory Written

[Evil Jeremy]

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

more mistakes!

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 150302
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006

A 0024Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE
FEATURE...AND THAT LANE HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET AT 50 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE
SHIPS...WHICH DOES NOT WEAKEN LANE AS RAPIDLY AS THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATES. CONDITIONS REMAIN RIPE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IF LAND INTERACTION DOES NOT
OCCUR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/5...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A BIT SLOWER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD
REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE
MORE NORTHWARD...AROUND MID PERIOD. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN ABRUPT NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.4N 105.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 106.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.6N 107.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.8N 108.3W 80 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.8N 109.3W 85 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
72HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
96HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W 65 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
120HR VT 20/0000Z 26.5N 110.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[craptacular]

I didn't see this posted anywhere, but it looks like we'll have some recon flying into Lane on Friday.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 14 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-107

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LANE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0113E LANE
C. 15/1245Z
D. 19.5N 107.1W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 70

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK
ANTICIPATING A REQUIREMENT FOR 16/1800Z ON HURRICANE
LANE AT 21.4N 108.9W.

RJD

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This could fellow the Gulf up. So this could be something to watch.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ33 KNHC 151145
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...CORE OF LANE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN
MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS ISLANDS OF
MEXICO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO
LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK...LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER OF LANE VERY
NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING
AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LANE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...19.3 N...106.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

953
WTPZ33 KNHC 151434
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...LANE ALMOST A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA
ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA ON THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO
LA CRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
LATER TODAY.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH
OF LA CRUZ TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS SOUTH OF MANZANILLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 325
MILES...525 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LANE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.7 N...106.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

368
WTPZ43 KNHC 151456
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

LANE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND A LARGE OUTER BAND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1226 UTC
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EYE MAY BE PRESENT UNDER THE CDO. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 35
KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND
THERE IS A CHANCE LANE IS ALREADY A HURRICANE. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IS CURRENTLY GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...AND FAIR TO THE EAST AND
WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE LANE AROUND 18Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN
EARLIER. LANE IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS
MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE
MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED
AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR 36-48 HR...THEN STARTS TO DIVERGE BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN TO 3 KT AFTER 48 HR
IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.

LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 30C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS LONG
AS THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO TANGLES UP WITH LAND. INDEED...THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A 43 PRESENT
CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH 72 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND LESS WEAKENING THEREAFTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODELS. THERE IS TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
FORECAST. THE FIRST IS THAT LANE HAS A SMALL CENTRAL CORE...AND
COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THEN EXPECTED. THE SECOND
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION...AS THE INTENSITY COULD
WELL BE LESS THAN FORECAST IF LANE VEERS OFF THE FORECAST TRACK.

IF LANE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.
HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ONSHORE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 19.7N 106.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 20.9N 107.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 22.3N 108.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 23.4N 108.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 24.3N 109.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 25.5N 109.0W 85 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1200Z 26.5N 109.0W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 108.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

WTPZ33 KNHC 151749
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS LANE JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
MANZANILLO TO LA CRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO
LORETO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE
CENTER VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AND
WARNING AREAS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 989
MB...29.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...20.2 N...106.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[rockst0ne]

Interesting to note that the last half of the 20th century had 19 hurricanes hit Baja California Sur. This year, we may have two. More interesting climate stuff on this site:

http://www.ejournal.unam.mx/atmosfera/V ... %20baja%22

- taylor

[cycloneye]

209
WTPZ33 KNHC 152030
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...LANE BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH MORE STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND FROM EL
ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
65 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF LANE NEAR THE ISLAS MARIAS TONIGHT. WHILE THE CENTER
OF LANE IS FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 985
MB...29.09 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...20.6 N...106.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[bombarderoazul]

Another cane for the EPAC! how many have they had this year?, it seems like almost every storm there reaches hurricane strength.

[cycloneye]

Radar from Cabo San Lucas.

[cycloneye]

831
WTPZ33 KNHC 152356
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006

...LANE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
...PASSING JUST WEST OF ISLAS MARIAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND FROM EL ROBLITO TO ALTATA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENA VISTA
ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND NORTH OF ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO....AND FOR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LORETO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MANZANILLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z......THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 240
MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYE OF HURRICANE
LANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LANE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LANE COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
LANE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...21.2 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

BOOM!

[cycloneye]

This looks like a worse track than John was as it will go to Mainland Mexico where the big mountains are and that means extreme flooding and mudslides,I am praying for those who are going to be in the path of Lane that all does not turn tragic there.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe we won't be seeing Lane in 2012?

Considering we are on pace for the first no-retirement Atlantic season since 1997, that wouldn't be surprising to see the Pacific have a couple...

[AussieMark]

is this in a similar place to Kenna of 2002?

[CrazyC83]

is this in a similar place to Kenna of 2002?

Not quite - Kenna was farther away in the water before turning northeast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think she made landfall south of where the nhc is forecasting it to come in. In as a strong cat4. Down from a cat5 before..