More Cape Verde developments or it's over?

Frank2 · #41 Postby **Frank2** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:48 am

Yes...

Zardoz · #42 Postby **Zardoz** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:13 am

hial2 wrote:
Zardoz wrote:According to this GFS run, the Lesser Antilles could possibly be threatened by this system:

I think it's the following system...

Oh, you think it's not the one that just entered the Atlantic, but the one that is currently inland? I see what you mean. Maybe the one in the model run that follows Helene (and recurves early on) is this one, and not the system that is currently going northeast up the coast.

Could be. It's a bit confusing because there are so many systems working. Let's see what transpires over the next week or so.

Sanibel · #43 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:28 am

The Africa ITCZ just flashed-off negative with most of the convection drying up.

Could that be it for 2006?

#44 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:43 am

Sanibel wrote:The Africa ITCZ just flashed-off negative with most of the convection drying up.

Could that be it for 2006?

We must be looking at 2 different Africa's
http://tinyurl.com/s2kba

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:26 pm

18:00z Full Disk Image

What I dont know is if what GFS and other models develop off Africa is the system now SE of the Cape Verde Islands or from distint areas of convection seen at image inside Africa.Who said the ITCZ inside Africa is dry?

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:54 pm

It has gained some convection since this morning.But again,is this the system GFS and other models develop,or is another one that is inside Africa?

Zardoz · #47 Postby **Zardoz** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:It has gained some convection since this morning. But again, is this the system GFS and other models develop, or is it another one that is inside Africa?

Tough to determine which is which at the moment.

However, the one that is in central Africa right now may bear some serious watching. From the look of it, it could be one single, huge system, and perhaps it's just my over-active imagination, but it may be showing faint signs of cyclonic rotation already:

Eumetsat

.

quandary · #48 Postby **quandary** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:51 pm

So what do people think about that ball of convection. It isn't very large, but it is round and deep, does it have a circulation?

#49 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:58 pm

It would certainly be interesting if this could develope. ECM builds a high in the Western Atlantic.

#50 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:16 pm

no mention in the TWO.... :roll:

#51 Postby **HenkL** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:28 pm

The GFS model has a slow development south of the Cape Verde Islands in 72 hours. So we'll have to wait a couple of days to see if anything is really going to happen.

#52 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:37 pm

HenkL wrote:The GFS model has a slow development south of the Cape Verde Islands in 72 hours. So we'll have to wait a couple of days to see if anything is really going to happen.

Agreed on that one. We'll have to wait and see if there is persistance by this area.

Sanibel · #53 Postby **Sanibel** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 4:57 pm

Looks like we could have a low-tracker there just south of CV.

(Guess it flashed back on)

That little disturbance could be the news of the year if it low-tracks.

#54 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:31 pm

I think the GFS is depicting the wave you see in western Africa that blows up with convection near the end of the loop. You can clearly see the lower clouds in the typical V shape of a TW just before the convection pops.

But this little disturbance is interesting, if it persists and went on to develop it would be a smaller scale storm like Gordon from the looks of it.

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:14 pm

Which of the areas of convection is the one the models develop is still the question.

#56 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:17 pm

i think that the one off of the coast and the one coming off right now will fuse n' form.

#57 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:17 pm

Convection is still present and more pops up in Africa.

TheRingo · #58 Postby **TheRingo** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:22 pm

A possibility that those 3 bursts will probably consolidate into one bigger system.

sma10 · #59 Postby **sma10** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:26 pm

TheRingo wrote:A possibility that those 3 bursts will probably consolidate into one bigger system.

That's what the models say....

TheShrimper · #60 Postby **TheShrimper** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:38 pm

Looks like there will be a shearing mechanism, northeast of the waves dropping down east of Helene to the Cape Verdes. Very pronounced at this point in time.

More Cape Verde developments or it's over?

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