Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing?

#41 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:38 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Because you are wrong, as a pro-met pointed out these same fronts are the trigger more often than you think. Look at the SST's in the GOM.

But the likelihood of Cat. 3 or higher storms forming off of old fronts in general is not common.

#42 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:39 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:History of major hit's in the GOM Sept./Oct.

Tx. 7/0
Ls. 7/3
Miss. 4/0
Ala. 4/0
Fld. 19/9

That is just Cat.3 and above and does not include Mexico.

I like to know how many were after September 18th.

#43 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:41 pm

StormWarning1 wrote:It's difficult to get anything in the gulf and carribean with a developing El Nino. The culprits are southwesterly shear and a zonal flow pattern across the gulf that returns after a front lifts out. Check my post above for examples.
Another 2 weeks and the westerlies should be down to 30N. I expect a quiet end to the season.

Here comes a el nino.
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellit ... om_2m.html

Very good post.

johngaltfla · #44 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:57 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing on 2006 season in the GOM? Well she may not be yet but she is clearing her voice. The way it looks out there right now and with the fronts getting stronger and stronger we can almost rule out the possibility of at least a Katrina, Rita or Wilma type storm affecting the GOM coastline in 2006. The waters will only get cooler and cooler as each settles into the GOM. I hope this wonderful unexpected season continues.

I will have to say "NO" at this point in time. Our most notorious storms hit in October and November, and yes, December. It depends more on forward speed of the storm to the NNE or NE than just the SST's. Right now we have 85-88 degree water temps right off our coasts. If we can hopefully see those drop into the low 70's I might feel better, but that's not usually until mid-November.

Until our first 55-59 degree low hits, locally, I won't feel better.

TheShrimper · #45 Postby **TheShrimper** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:11 pm

Very correct. Frontal passages thru the gulf, usually mean that area is shut off for development. That does not mean that storms forming to the south will not enter, and intensify if their path takes them into GOM. It all depends on development in the caribbean. One thing to be assured of is, that if energy is left down to the south and remains unhampered for a few days, development can be quick. And as quick as it may materialize, it may be just as rapid in it's approach to the N and NE eventualy. We have seen it too many times before.Not to mention the gradient if a front picks up the storm at the perfect time.

HurricaneBill · #46 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:59 pm

I know it's getting late in the season, but there have been many El Nino seasons that have had a hurricane in the Gulf.

As for the rest of the Atlantic, late-season hurricanes have occured during El Nino years.

LaBreeze · #47 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:21 pm

She may be clearing her throat here in the western GOM - enjoying the fronts, keep'em coming! 8-)

westmoon · #48 Postby **westmoon** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:41 pm

Calling ticketmaster just in case! Won't hurt my feelings is she starts singing a little early this year.

Frank2 · #49 Postby **Frank2** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:20 pm

As someone said earlier, the westerlies are the official issue - once they get down to Florida's latitude, the season (at least for anyone north of 25N) is about over...

In the past couple of weeks, strong westerlies have been found just north of 30N, so, it won't be too long, and, as someone else said, it's possible we'll see a quiet end to this season, which really is more typical of any hurricane season...

Frank

Lindaloo · #50 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:23 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Bailey1777 wrote:History of major hit's in the GOM Sept./Oct.

Tx. 7/0
Ls. 7/3
Miss. 4/0
Ala. 4/0
Fld. 19/9

That is just Cat.3 and above and does not include Mexico.

I like to know how many were after September 18th.

Hurricane Georges in 1998 made landfall on the MS Coast at the end of September.

#51 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:53 pm

Major hurricane Opal made landfall in the Florida panhandle in October...

StormWarning1 · #52 Postby **StormWarning1** » Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:00 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Bailey1777 wrote:History of major hit's in the GOM Sept./Oct.

Tx. 7/0
Ls. 7/3
Miss. 4/0
Ala. 4/0
Fld. 19/9

That is just Cat.3 and above and does not include Mexico.

I like to know how many were after September 18th.

More to the point. How many made have there been past Sept 18 when there is a El Nino.
Check thses years, 1983, 1992, 1997, 2004.
None

Is the Fat Lady getting ready to sing?

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