Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

Weathermaster · #41 Postby **Weathermaster** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:21 am

Ok, now I am updated. My computer was showing 97L as in the south Caribbean, but I refresh the screen and now they are correct.

#42 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:22 am

Ok,that was for an old 97L,but it changed to the new 97L in the Leewards.

ronjon · #43 Postby **ronjon** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:22 am

If this one forms, all of the global models are predicting strong ridging over the SE US and western Atlantic Ocean over the next 3-5 days. If the disturbance doesn't get picked up and shunted north quickly it will ride along the southern edge of the building ridge on a general westerly course after 4-5 days. Which means possible track through the straits or across the FL peninsula into the GOM. Alot of ifs, especially since it hasn't even developed, but this one does have the potential to affect FL or get into the GOM due to the synoptic pattern setting up.

#44 Postby **msbee** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:28 am

Hmm!
watch out neighbors!
well, at least we can use the rain!

Nimbus · #45 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:28 am

If I lived in PR and needed groceries I'd go shopping early. This little storm could make the news by 5 if it continues to develop.

caribepr · #46 Postby **caribepr** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:32 am

Well, we either use up all that canned/frozen stuff for the reason we have it or give it away to buy fresh for next year. Will the universe REALLY make it necessary for me to eat that one nasty can of _______ (can't type it, it may be your favorite!)? I don't think it will happen this time, but I'm ready if it does!

#47 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:36 am

Even if it were able to make it towards the Straights, there is way too much upper level shear forecasted over the next 5 days in that region. I highly doubt it will be much for Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. That is all pending that it makes it that far and I'm not being negative but, the synoptics don't support development and track to west towards Florida.

Check out the Upper Level winds here in this graphic @ 4 days out.

Also at day 4 for the ridge is going to be very skimpy on the western flank and should allow for recurvature of this area.

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:39 am

caribepr wrote:Well, we either use up all that canned/frozen stuff for the reason we have it or give it away to buy fresh for next year. Will the universe REALLY make it necessary for me to eat that one nasty can of _______ (can't type it, it may be your favorite!)? I don't think it will happen this time, but I'm ready if it does!

I always prepare early in the season getting canned stuff,so if something more stronger thatn expected comes to us tommorow I am prepared.And yesterday I filled the car with $20 at the pump,without knowing about this getting more organized today.

#49 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:40 am

My question is, do we have a LLC already present?

SWFLA_CANE · #50 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:41 am

Well I for one don't buy into the shear maps. We have seen it too many times this year that shear is forecasted to be low in a particular area and then shear destroy's a system. In this case shear is forecasted to be high, according to the maps, but I think we will have to wait and see. I personally see, well according to the map above, ample opportunity for this invest to curve and split the difference between the U.S. and Bermuda. JMO.

caribepr · #51 Postby **caribepr** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:43 am

cycloneye wrote:
caribepr wrote:Well, we either use up all that canned/frozen stuff for the reason we have it or give it away to buy fresh for next year. Will the universe REALLY make it necessary for me to eat that one nasty can of _______ (can't type it, it may be your favorite!)? I don't think it will happen this time, but I'm ready if it does!

I always prepare early in the season getting canned stuff,so if something more stronger thatn expected comes to us tommorow I am prepared.And yesterday I filled the car with $20 at the pump,without knowing about this getting more organized today.

And! the propane is topped up as well, which is my favorite defense unless the kitchen blows away

#52 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:44 am

HURAKAN wrote:My question is, do we have a LLC already present?

No LLC, and I can't see any MLC. Just a small cluster of thunderstorms at this time. Conditions aloft don't look too favorable for development. Just some thunderstorms for the NE Caribbean, most likely.

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:45 am

HURAKAN wrote:My question is, do we have a LLC already present?

This is a good time for Recon Baby to go there to find out what is beneath the clouds.But HURAKAN,observations from the islands can show data about any LLC in the area.

Thunder44 · #54 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:47 am

cycloneye wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:My question is, do we have a LLC already present?

This is a good time for Recon Baby to go there to find out what is beneath the clouds.But HURAKAN,observations from the islands can show data about any LLC in the area.

I figure if they now really believe this has a chance of development, they will schedule a recon for tomorrow or Sat.

#55 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:47 am

If we have no LLC present, then how the models have already been iniciated in a precise point? It doesn't seem logical.

#56 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:52 am

HURAKAN wrote:If we have no LLC present, then how the models have already been iniciated in a precise point? It doesn't seem logical.

An LLC or an MLC is not needed to run model data. A point is picked for the "center" and the models are run. Often, you'll see multiple model runs for the same system wth different initialization points at the same time. This is just a small cluster of storms at this time.

Steering currents ahead of it will make it almost impossible to reach the east U.S. Coast. Just a little rain for the NE Caribbean and eastern Bahamas.

#57 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:53 am

Nice burst of convection during the last hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

#58 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:55 am

I figure if they now really believe this has a chance of development, they will schedule a recon for tomorrow or Sat.

Let's see if the todays plan of the day says something about this area.

#59 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:56 am

I have to say it does look a bit suspicious this morning.

#60 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:02 am

Here's a mid-level flow streamline forecast for 15Z Saturday. Note the deep trof approaching the east U.S. Coast. The same flow pattern will persist through early next week. Such a pattern would make it just about impossible for anything to reach the Gulf of Mexico or the east U.S. Coast. I think that the chances of this system becoming a named storm are low, maybe 10-20%.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/joyce1.gif

Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

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