Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone Favio (14S) Landfall

[P.K.]

70kts, 964hPa. 80kts at the forecast landfall point.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/9/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/19 AT 1200 UTC :
26.6S / 45.3E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/20 00 UTC: 26.1S/43.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/20 12 UTC: 25.6S/41.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 25.0S/39.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 24.3S/37.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 23.0S/35.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 21.3S/34.3E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+.
THE SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. FAVIO SHOWS NOW A EYE
PATTERN,
WITH A WELL CONSILIDATED EYE WALL . IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE (GOOD OUTFLOW POLARWARDS AND
EQUATORIALWARDS).

FAVIO IS GOING TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD TO WEST NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER
THE
STEERING FLOW OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CHANNEL
. IT SHOULD TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS MOZAMBICAN COASTLINES,
WITH
A LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.=

[HURAKAN]

Continues to get better!!!

[Chacor]

Madagascar advisory:

COMMENTAIRES
La bande spirale qui la précède s'est installée sur l'etrême Sud de l'île provoquant des pluies accompagnées de coups de vent dépassant 70km/h. Avis d'avertissement en cours.

As of 0600Z 19 Feb.

[P.K.]

Where are the Madagascar advisories from? The Madagascar Met Office page linked to by the World Meteorological Organisation hasn't been updated since mid 2004!

[Chacor]

Where are the Madagascar advisories from? The Madagascar Met Office page linked to by the World Meteorological Organisation hasn't been updated since mid 2004!

http://www.wanadoo.mg/fmet.php

Wanadoo Madagascar hosts them, it looks like. Which is funny, because Orange UK would not host UKMet info, would it?

And we know it's probably indeed from them, at the bottom of the page it says "© Service Météo Madagasikara"

[P.K.]

Thanks, yeah the old site had a Wanadoo e-mail address as well. You are right that would never happen here being a MoD site.

Mozambique have released a blue alert for this it looks like after running it through a translator as I don't speak Portuguese, their lowest level of alert warning of strong winds within the next 24 to 28 hours.

Segunda-feira, 19 de Fevereiro de 2007

AVISO DE MAU TEMPO
AVISO ESPECIAL NR 01/09/2007

Elaborado às 14:00 horas (TL) de 19 de Fevereiro de 2007

Está em vigor uma alerta azul para as áreas costeiras situadas entre os rios Save e Limpopo.

Às 14:00 horas de hoje o Ciclone Tropical "FAVIO" de categoria 3 localizava-se à 200 kilómetros a Sul de Madagáscar e movia-se em direcção a parte Sul do canal de Moçambique a uma velocidade de 12 Km/h.

Prevê-se que no dia 21 de Fevereiro os distritos costeiros das províncias de Inhambane, Sul da província de Sofala e Norte da província de Gaza sejam afectados por ventos fortes soprando com rajadas até 160km/h.

Existe a possibilidade de ocorrência de chuvas moderadas.

Recomenda-se às autoridades das províncias de Sofala, Inhambane e Gaza para a tomada de medidas preventivas necessárias e o acompanhamento do próximo aviso que será emitido às 10:00 horas de amanhã.



O Director Nacional

[KWT]

Looks fairly decent right now, a eye is present though its not that visable it appears on the visable sat imagery you can see on IR its there quite clearly.
I suspect given decent out/inflow channel it may continue to strengthen faster then expected, I rekcon landfall around 90kts at the moment, decent convection, a eye that has yet to really clear out, decent eyewall also as reported.

Looks like this could wlel cause a lot of damage if it comes in stronger then progged, flooding being the obvious concerns for this area though.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 191810

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/9/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4S / 44.7E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/20 06 UTC: 25.9S/43.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/20 18 UTC: 25.3S/41.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/21 06 UTC: 24.8S/39.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 24.0S/37.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 22.5S/35.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 20.3S/34.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+.
INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES SLOWLY AND INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EYEWALL COOLING AROUND A WARMING EYE SINCE 1600UTC.
MICROWAVE SSMI F14 IMAGERY REVEALS HOWEVER A LOW LAYER EYE CENTER (37GHZ
) SLIGHTLY "TILTED" SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPARED TO THE UPPER LEVEL ONE (85GHZ
), WHICH SUPPOSES A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS
CONSTRAINT SHOULD DISSAPEAR LINKED TO THE TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
ALREADY STARTED.
FAVIO SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE (TWO
GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW)
.
FAVIO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS (UNDER THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL) TOWARDS
MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, WITH A FORECASTED LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

[HURAKAN]

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FAVIO

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 945 HPA.
POSITION LE 20 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 25.4 SUD / 42.8 EST
(VINGT-CINQ DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1350 KM A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 24.6S/39E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 22.6S/36.1E
DEPR. SUR TERRE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 17.5S/33E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 16H30

90 knots, 945 hPa











Beautiful small and compact system!!!

[P.K.]

Intense Tropical Cyclone Favio continues to intensify and is now 100kts with a centre pressure of 935hPa.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 201213

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/9/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/20 AT 1200 UTC :
25.2S / 41.8E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 24.6S/39.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 24.2S/37.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 23.3S/36.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 21.5S/35.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 19.0S/33.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, OVERLAND.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULAR DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE.
FAVIO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COASTLINE AND THEN, AS A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST, TO RECURVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, WITH A LANDFALL
FORECASTED BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA ON THURSDAY.

[KWT]

Oh, neat little tropical cyclone there, I thought it would get stronger faster then expected but I didn't think it would bomb down to 935mbs quite as quickly as it did to be honest but it looked decent last night so it shouldn't be that suprising.
It does look very good right now with a decent inflow channel set-up, though it is dragging in slightly less moist air from inland so its a touch elongated looking because the eastern side is a little supressed due to the slightly drier air. This problem will likely resolve itself in time as it tracks further away from the island of Madagascar.

It may come in a little stronger then I exected which is bad news obviously!

[Coredesat]

Absolutely impressive for a system we all thought was finished just yesterday morning. I sure hope this doesn't become a repeat of Leon-Eline in 2000.

[Chacor]

Deepened by another 5 hPa.

[Windspeed]

Earlier image had nice shadow effect in the eye. Very intense, yet compact cyclone. Compact cyclones tend to experience larger fluctuations in intensity. Since Favio has a small core, hopefully this increases the chances of it collapsing or weakening rapidly before reaching the Mozambican Coastline. Do not want weakening to commence too quickly though, as this may allow the cyclone enough time to re-intensify prior to landfall. It's always about timing with these compact systems. Right now, Favio is roughly 36-42 hours from landfall.

[HURAKAN]

20/2030 UTC 24.6S 40.6E T6.5/6.5 FAVIO -- South Indian Ocean

[wxmann_91]

It's undergoing an ERC now. Extrapolation of current speed indicates this will be making landfall in about 24 hr. At current rate, it is possible that the ERC will be completing as it makes landfall. FWIW, the area of Mozambique which is under the gun (that area which juts out around the Tropic of Capricorn) is the most densely populated areas of the country.

[HurricaneBill]

Mozambique is already dealing with floods from recent heavy rains. This could end up being a very serious situation.

[Category 5]

This is a healthy looking storm. I would never guess it was only a category 1 .

This will be the first storm into the Hurricanes 2007 Photobucket.

[Chacor]

It's not only a Cat 1. Darn JTWC.

The M-F 00Z advisory continues to strengthen to storm in the forecast, 105kt at 24hr.