Australia: TC Jacob: Landfall has occurred

[HURAKAN]

[ncupsscweather]

Jacob is looking a little better then what he did last night.

[HURAKAN]

NW Australia, don't put your shutters down!!!

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Continues to become better organized.

[AussieMark]

I'm no fan of the Australian scale. They call that a Category 2 cyclone when to us it is a high-end tropical storm. Gusts are almost impossible to measure accurately as well.

your scale does not mean anything to us tho. Its a scale that has always been in place. Its not like we say ooh Its only a Tropical storm on the US scale so who cares

I mean we have our scale you have your scale deal with it

[HurricaneBill]

your scale does not mean anything to us tho. Its a scale that has always been in place. Its not like we say ooh Its only a Tropical storm on the US scale so who cares

I mean we have our scale you have your scale deal with it

I agree. When in Rome, use what the Romans use. Or in this case, Australians.

[AussieMark]

I'm no fan of the Australian scale. They call that a Category 2 cyclone when to us it is a high-end tropical storm. Gusts are almost impossible to measure accurately as well.

I agree totally they focus on tropical storms to cat2 like storms, then forget anything over 100 knots. Maybe there cyclones are not as strong, so they think they have no use for anything like Charley,Andrew,Ivan,Mitch,Wilma,Katrina,Hugo, like storms ect. But its there system. In yes some of there storms do get that powerful like Fay or Tracy. Monica, Ingrid.

here are some landfalling systems over the last 8 years

1998/99
Thelma - 120 kts (1min 135 kts) ----- Western Australia -----
Vance - 110 kts (1 min 125 kts) ----- Western Australia -----

1999/00
John (had gusts of 155 kts) ----- Western Australia -----
Rosita- 105 kts (1 min 125 kts) ----- Western Australia -----

2000/01
Sam - 105 kts (1 min 125 kts) ----- Western Australia -----

2001/02
Chris - 110 kts (1 min 125 kts) ----- Western Australia -----

2003/04
Fay - 90 kts (1 min 115 kts) ----- Western Australia -----

2004/05
Ingrid - 120 kts (1 min 135 kts) ----- Northern Territory ----- other landfalls in QLD (115 kts) and Western Australia (110 kts)

2005/06
Larry - 115 kts (1 min 130 kts) ----- Queensland -----
Monica - 135 kts (1 min 155 kts) ----- Northern Territory -----
Glenda - 95 kts (1 min 105 kts) ----- Western Australia -----

[HURAKAN]

your scale does not mean anything to us tho. Its a scale that has always been in place. Its not like we say ooh Its only a Tropical storm on the US scale so who cares

I mean we have our scale you have your scale deal with it

I agree. When in Rome, use what the Romans use. Or in this case, Australians.

I also concur. Nevertheless, it will be great if the WMO designates a scale to be used by the entire world.

[HURAKAN]

08/0833 UTC 13.0S 105.4E T3.5/3.5 JACOB -- South Indian Ocean
08/1433 UTC 13.3S 105.1E T3.5/3.5 JACOB -- South Indian Ocean
08/2033 UTC 14.0S 107.1E T3.5/3.5 JACOB -- South Indian Ocean

Picking up steam over the past 6 hours.

[P.K.]

I also concur. Nevertheless, it will be great if the WMO designates a scale to be used by the entire world.

That would have to be a ten minute scale though as the WMO definition of a sustained wind is a ten minute average.

[HURAKAN]

I also concur. Nevertheless, it will be great if the WMO designates a scale to be used by the entire world.

That would have to be a ten minute scale though as the WMO definition of a sustained wind is a ten minute average.

I have no problem with that. As long the world agrees on something in common, I'm ok with that. When I came to the US I learned a new language, I think it will be easier to learn how to use the 10-min scale!!!!

[HURAKAN]

Looking like a strong tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

09/0133 UTC 14.4S 107.9E T4.0/4.0 JACOB -- South Indian Ocean





Eye developing. Jacob is getting more intense as it moves toward NW Australia.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice northern Outflow jet, deep convection over the center. I expect this will start strengthen at a good pace soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My thoughts on Jacob,

The appears to be a increas in overall shear over the eastern Quad of Jacab over the last 6-12 hours. With even higher vaules to the north and south, increasing or inducing a outflow jet. Cimiss shows the center close to the eastern edge of the convection. But this is likely short term thing in Jacobs way, as George weakens, its Anticyclone also weakens with it. So expect Jacob to overcome the short comings over the next 12-24 hours. With already a good northern outflow jet developing over the last few hours, also a strong CDO on the western side of the LLC; it is likely that it is already showing signs of over coming this shear. See shear 150 or miles from the core of a cyclone, can act as a outflow jet. What that doe's is take built up heat inside the core of the cyclone, in which lowers the pressure in the core of the cyclone. Which helps the system to strengthen. Latest cimiss shear maps already show 5 knot decrease under the convection. Things should only get better for Jacob while Georges Anticyclone weakens. I fully expect Jacob to increase 10-15 knots over the next 24 hours, in overall winds.

Georges will not altogether go away, so he will be a weakness for Jacob, which should help him still more southeastward after 24-36 hours. Also will help pull the cyclone into that area. So it looks very good for a southwestern Aus landfall.

Now, I would say 55-60 knots for Jacob.
12 65-70 knots
24 75-80 knots
36 90 knots
48 90 knots

This is not perfect, I'm not super good with these storms. But this is my thoughts.

[Rod Hagen]

Georges will not altogether go away, so he will be a weakness for Jacob.

Let us ALL hope so, Matt, for the sake of the poor blighters who live where it is expected to hit.

Things should only get better for Jacob while Georges Anticyclone weakens. I fully expect Jacob to increase 10-15 knots over the next 24 hours, in overall winds.

I can only guess that you REALLY meant to say "Things may get worse with Jacob" ???? Let us ALL hope you are wrong.

Rod

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For the cyclone it is good, for the people that it could effect it is bad. Also I expect it make landfall 100 miles or so west of the Port city, so I don't currently expect them to get the worst.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 6:55 pm WDT on Friday, 9 March 2007
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE GEORGE is now current for inland
eastern Pilbara, including Newman, Marble Bar and Nullagine, the northeast
Gascoyne, northern Goldfields and adjacent western Interior. Refer to Tropical
Cyclone Advice for System 1 for details.

A CYCLONE WATCH for SEVERE CATEGORY 3 Jacob has been declared for coastal areas
from Coral Bay to Sandfire, extending inland to include Tom Price and Marble
Bar.

At 6:00 pm WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob was estimated to be 580 kilometres
south southeast of Christmas Is and 1100 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving east southeast at 21 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob has intensified and is expected to move to the
southeast over the next 24 to 48 hours. Gales may redevelop on the Pilbara coast
later on Sunday as the cyclone approaches, extending inland early on Monday.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob at 6:00 pm WDT.

Location of centre : within 55 kilometres of
latitude 14.8 south longitude 108.6 east
Recent movement : east southeast at 21 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 962 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts for
Cyclone Jacob at present. Please refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice for System 1
for Community Alerts for Tropical Cyclone George.

The next warning will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Friday 09 March.


Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone


Also its already a cat3.

[Rod Hagen]

For the cyclone it is good, for the people that it could effect it is bad.

You know, I've always had this strange suspicion that cyclones have no concept of 'good" and "bad", so it is pretty hard to see how it is "good" for Jacob. I'm sure they wouldn't care in the slightest whether they turned into gentle little zephyrs. There may be some people out there who think "bad" = "good" though.

As a "people", I reckon we should all curtail our enthusiams for drama a little, and contemplate as deeply as we can what this really means for the people who are likely to be hit by the damn thing. Jacob is the last thing they need.

All I'm saying , Matt, is be careful with the way that you use language at these times. Yes I know storm buffs get a kick out of the extremes, but lets not forget that there is another side to these events. A deeply miserable, truly desperate side. Some of our fellow human beings who have been through this event are very likely to be reading what is said here. Or do you reckon that "Katrina" was a really "good" thing for the people of New Orleans? Think about it.

Rod