Madagascar: Indlala (19S): Dissipated

#41 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 2:11 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I need these agencies to keep one name and stick to it. The name lists say "Indlada" but I don't know why some of the agencies are calling it "Indlala."

Seems to have been a typo on the name list page on the RSMC La Reunion site which was copied into their graphics programme. The 2006 operation manual has the correct spelling as does the Mauritius Met Office website.

#42 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 2:14 pm

P.K. wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I need these agencies to keep one name and stick to it. The name lists say "Indlada" but I don't know why some of the agencies are calling it "Indlala."

Seems to have been a typo on the name list page on the RSMC La Reunion site which was copied into their graphics programme. The 2006 operation manual has the correct spelling as does the Mauritius Met Office website.

From Wikipedia:
"Originally, the storm was referred to as "Indlada" by M-F, but this was later corrected to the correct name, Indlala, which was contributed by Swaziland."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_So ... ote-naming

#43 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 6:50 pm

I assume that was based on the operational manual or a very quick edit there. :lol:

#44 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 7:38 pm

Meteo-France: 55 knots (10-min), 62.7 knots (1-min), 72.2 mph (1-min).

Almost hurricane force winds. Eye developing.

Chacor · #45 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 8:55 pm

JTWC 121500Z March:

JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
UPDATED STORM NAME TO INDLALA. ORIGINAL WARNING LISTED STORM NAME
AS INDLADA DUE TO ERROR ON U.S. HELD NAME LIST.

(and yet the header says
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLADA) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
heheheh :lol:

)

Chacor · #46 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 8:57 pm

P.K. wrote:I assume that was based on the operational manual or a very quick edit there.

Thing is, the TCOP does indeed say Indlala, with an "l", and MF did at first use a "d", so it was worth mentioning :wink:

HurricaneBill · #47 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Mar 12, 2007 9:42 pm

There has been confusion in the past.

In 2004, the name "Jubala" was listed. However, the name used was "Juba".

In 2005, the name "Devrina" was on the list. However, "Daren" was used instead.

Chacor · #48 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 1:23 am

WTIO30 FMEE 130614

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/12/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/13 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 54.7E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/13 18 UTC: 13.0S/53.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/03/14 06 UTC: 13.6S/52.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/03/14 18 UTC: 14.5S/51.2E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 15.7S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 16.6S/50.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 17.5S/50.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, "INDLALA" REACHED RECENTLY
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE ANIMATED INFRA-RED IMAGERY REVEALS AN
INTERMITTENT EYE STRUCTURE BUT THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE RECENT
MICRO-WAVE DATA (TRMM 0133Z, WINDSAT 0227Z, SSMI 0346Z) SHOW AN IMPROVING
STRUCTURE (DESPITE
A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM). THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE SHORTLY AND THE INTENSIFICATION SHALL KEEP ON. "INDLALA" IS
EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR SOUTHWEST WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO SKIRT
THE NORTHEASTERN MALGASY COASTLINE.

A 30-kt gain within 36 hours is forecast.

Chacor · #49 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:41 am

And I finally received a reply:

Hello from SWIO,

The correct name is INDLALA. There was some mess induced by an erroneous
name within the original list of names coming from WMO.
Philippe Caroff
Operational Head
RSMC La Reunion

#50 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:23 am

Very nicely looking storm.

#51 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:29 am

MARCH 13 2007 0830Z
.
12.9S 54.4E T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS INDLALA (19S)
.
PAST POSITIONS....13.1S 55.8E 12/1900Z IRNIGHT
13.1S 57.5E 12/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....SYSTEM HAS NOW FULLY DEVELOPED AN EYE. LG CONVECTION
SURROUND A LG EYE FOR A DT=4.5. MET AND PAT ALSO 4.5
THE FINAL-T WAS DETERMINED FROM PAT..DT AND MET
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 13/1600Z.

Chacor · #52 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:16 am

709
WTIO30 FMEE 131214

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/12/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/13 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 54.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/14 00 UTC: 13.4S/53.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 14.0S/52.1E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 14.5S/51.4E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
48H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 15.3S/50.8E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
60H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 16.0S/50.4E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7S/50.1E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- ; CI=4.5
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED A GRADUAL
CONSOLIDATION.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INTERMITTENT EYE STRUCTURE ;
THE
MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (AMSU-B 0650Z) STILL INDICATES A WEAKNESS WITHIN
THE
EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM (DUE TO A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR).
NEVERTHELESS, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE, THE UPPER
LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AND THE INTENSIFICATION
SHALL
KEEP ON. AS THE STEERING RIDGE MOVES EASTWARDS, "INDLALA" IS EXPECTED
TO
HEAD FOR SOUTHWEST WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO SKIRT THE
NORTHEASTERN MALGASY COASTLINE AFTER TAU 48.=

#53 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:23 am

Becoming better defined as the eye clears.

#54 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:35 am

MARCH 13 2007 1433Z
.
13.2S 53.7E T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS INDLADA (19S)
.
PAST POSITIONS....12.8S 55.0E 13/0230Z IRDAY/VIS
13.0S 56.7E 12/1430Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS....OW EYE SURROUNDED IN BLACK FOR A DT OF 5.5. MET IS
4.5. PT IS 5.0. FT OF 5.0 BASED ON PT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 13/2200Z.

__________________

90 knots based on Dvorak.

#55 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:59 pm

NRL: 90 knots.

#56 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:07 pm

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/12/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 0000 UTC :
13.7S / 52.8E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 450 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 14.2S/52.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 15.1S/51.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 15.8S/50.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 16.4S/50.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 17.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 17.5S/49.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON SHOWING AN INTERMITTENT EYE ON THE IR IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AND THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE. AS
THE STEERING RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, "INDLALA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 12 HOURS, AND THEN TO SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN
MALAGASY COASTLINE.

Chacor · #57 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:49 pm

783
TPXS10 PGTW 140314

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA)

B. 14/0230Z

C. 13.7S/1

D. 52.7E/4

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/27HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (14/0230Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 19NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY BLACK
ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJ YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. PT AND MET GIVE
5.5. DBO MET. STORM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

DELEO

#58 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:49 pm

Watch out Madagascar - this one looks like a real whopper.

Chacor thanks for clearing up that mess about the name!

HurricaneBill · #59 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Wed Mar 14, 2007 12:36 am

Yeah, the position it is in seems eerily similar to Cyclone Gafilo in March 2004. Fortunately, Indlala isn't forcasted to reach Gafilo's intensity or follow his path.

#60 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 14, 2007 3:19 am

MARCH 14 2007 0230Z
.
13.7S 52.6E T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS INDLADA (19S)
.
PAST POSITIONS....13.2S 53.7E 13/1430Z IRNIGHT
12.8S 55.0E 13/0230Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS....SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN NORMAL RATE. EYE PATTERN PRODUCES A DT=6.0 WHILE MET=5.0
AND PAT=5.5. THE FINAL-T WAS BASED ON THE PAT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 14/1000Z.

Madagascar: Indlala (19S): Dissipated

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