What # hurricane would you ride out?

[Recurve]

No more than Cat 1 for a direct hit.
If there's anything stronger coming within 100 miles, I'm booking.

We had waterspouts/tornadoes from TS Mitch, some scary damage.

When we see another Labor Day, Donna or Betsy, anyone in a ground level structure for a 20 or 30-mile stretch of the Keys has a good chance of drowning.

I'd stay in New Orleans (near the Mississippi levee) for a Cat 3 before I'd stay here.

[Janie2006]

I'd ride out a Category 1, but after Katrina....anything stronger and I'm gone.

[DanKellFla]

After 3 eyewalls, Frances, Jeane and Wilma, I have decided to ride out a Cat 2 or lower in my house. It is concrete block, with a HIP roof (post Andrew code) and one story. My mother lives in a house built in 2003. I would go there for a Cat 3. Anything else, and I would hope to leave. I would pack up the minivan, strap some gas cans on the roof and get out if I could. If not, I live close to a shelter. Actually, it is within a 10 minute walk of my house.

[GalvestonDuck]

Yeah, some of us have to stay around. I work in banking so I know the feeling. My parents are building on the west end against my wishes. Of course they will be staying with me for a 1 with no sea wall for protection.

Yup, they'd evacuate even sooner than the rest of the island. The west end and Bolivar residents at UTMB are always released early, even during TS's, because of how bad it gets there.

[hawkeh]

Cat 5...

[robag]

Here in Key Largo I would leave for anything over a 1. Those tornadoes from TS Mitch came right over my house and it was scary. I live in a ground level home a block from the ocean and a few blocks from the bay. I can't imagine what my house would look like after a direct hit from a Betsy or Donna type storm!

[Blown Away]

I'm 1 mile from the coast, surge is not a concern since I'm on the coastal ridge, and I over built my home to handle hurricanes, no storm will make me load up the kids sit in the madness on the Interstate.

[Cyclenall]

I have never rode out in a tropical cyclone before but I would ride out a category 2 hurricane at the most.

[cinlfla]

I have to stay for all storms because my job says so :D

[Cryomaniac]

Probabaly a cat 1, just, although the chaces of that here are so small as to be negligable.

[T'Bonz]

Before Wilma: 1-3 yes. 4-5 no.

After Wilma: 1-2 yes, 4-5 no. 3 if it were a backdoor hurricane (coming from the W. Coast of Florida) MAYBE. If it were a 3 coming from the Atlantic, I would probably evac.

[Downdraft]

I'll be here for anything up to a cat 5. When your in public safety you have no choice in the matter. My family though is out of here for anything above a mid-range Cat 2.

[wxman57]

Every year we see this same question, and each year I point out the flawed logic in the responses. Here's my 2007 version.

If you live in an evacuation zone (surge zone), then the correct answer is that you should seriously consider evacuating even for a TC that is PREDICTED to be a strong TS. Key word, "predicted". You will have to make your decision to evacuate or not from 48-72 hours prior to landfall. It's quite possible that 2-3 days out, that TS which is FORECAST to be only a strong TS or Cat 1 could become a Cat 3-4 hurricane. We just cannot predict intensity with any confidence 2-3 days out in may cases. Remember Opal or Charley? Or how about Wilma strengthening from a 65 mph TS to a Cat 5 in 24 hours? Rita strengthened to a Cat 5 from a TS in 36 hours. Neither rapid intensification was predicted (nor was Charley's).

Bottom line is we cannot accurately predict hurricane intensity. You won't know precisely what category you've elected to ride out until a few hours before landfall. If the intensity prediction was wrong, then you could be killed. I wouldn't risk MY life on our ability to predict hurricane intensity.

Perhaps this question could be asked in another way. Replace the word "would" with "could". What category hurricane "could" you ride out?

[baygirl_1]

You are so right, wxman 57. You mentioned Opal in '95. My sister was living on Choctawhatchee Bay in Fort Walton at that time. Not only did Opal strengthen rapidly, she also sped up. At 7PM that night, my sister told me she planned to leave early in the morning. The storm was not projected to make landfall until the next night. Leaving at 5AM would give her plenty of time to get to Mobile. However, Opal increased her foward speed and at 10PM the new projections were for landfall the next afternoon. My sister called again and was upset: they may not make it out before conditions became too dangerous to drive. I begged her to pack everything right then, wake the kids, and get on the road. Fortunately, she did this. On her way out of town at midnight, she ran into folks at the ATM machine. They noticed her packed van. She urged them to leave as soon as they could. Both said they were going to see how things looked at sunrise and make their decisions then. My sister arrived here in the wee hours and we all went to sleep for a couple hours. At sunrise, we awoke to find a significantly stronger storm (I believe it was a Cat 5 or just below that) spinning of the coast. Reports started coming out of the panhandle around 7 or 8AM that traffic was at a standstill on all major roads as people tried to evacuate. My sister knows some folks who rode out the storm in their car on I-10! Very scary!
Yes, evacuating can be quite frustrating. Yes, we've sat in a traffic jam on I-65 during an evacuation. However, I'd do it again to be sure we are not here when a hurricane hits. We lost our chimney and part of the roof during Katrina. It would have been terrifying to be here when that happened! My house and things can be replaced. I'll evacuate those that cannot be replaced.

[MomH]

Since I live in the center of the state and 40 miles above the big lake I will stay for anything less than a Cat 5. May have to think about a Cat 5. I would rather be hunkered down in my concrete block home with supplies and my generator than traveling US27 which is congested all the time --hurricane or not.

MomH

[Rainband]

Depends on the size of the storm but most likely a cat 1

[DanKellFla]

wxman57, I agree.
Run from the water, hide from the wind. Right?

[Derek Ortt]

I agree with run from water, hide from wind up until the upper cat 4 range

As I said earlier in this thread, would anyone stay if they knew that there was a good chance of an EF4 tornado hitting their house. The gusts in a cat 4 are of EF4 intensity. Your home is going to suffer majolr damage, without question if they are hit by those. Cat 5 SUSTAINED winds can be EF4 and gusts are EF5, your home WILL BE LEVELED if those hit, and even concrete blocks may fail, as occurred in South Dade.

I would never fault someone for leaving from winds of that level

[Opal storm]

Dennis also rapidly strengthened just before landfall.Went to bed it was a cat 3,woke up the next morning it was up to 145mph and just off the coast.Luckily it weakend though,but I had never planned to ride out a cat 4 so I was pretty scared that morning.It's best to prepare for at least a category or two higher than forecasted.

[Deputy Van Halen]

>If you live in an evacuation zone (surge zone), then the correct answer is that you should seriously consider evacuating even for a TC that is PREDICTED to be a strong TS. Key word, "predicted". You will have to make your decision to evacuate or not from 48-72 hours prior to landfall. It's quite possible that 2-3 days out, that TS which is FORECAST to be only a strong TS or Cat 1 could become a Cat 3-4 hurricane. We just cannot predict intensity with any confidence 2-3 days out in may cases. Remember Opal or Charley? Or how about Wilma strengthening from a 65 mph TS to a Cat 5 in 24 hours? Rita strengthened to a Cat 5 from a TS in 36 hours. Neither rapid intensification was predicted (nor was Charley's).

>Bottom line is we cannot accurately predict hurricane intensity. You won't know precisely what category you've elected to ride out until a few hours before landfall. If the intensity prediction was wrong, then you could be killed. I wouldn't risk MY life on our ability to predict hurricane intensity.



It must be pointed out that you are also risking your life if you DO evacuate. Nothing in life is a simplistic "better safe than sorry" paradigm. And even if evacuation had a zero chance of being fatal, the choice still isn't that simple. Every choice in life is a tradeoff of something for something else, and often one of those somethings is the chance of death or severe injury.

If we stubbornly determine that we should never accept any course of action that increases our chance of death, then where would that leave us? We would never get in the car and go anywhere unless it was absolutely necessary. We would not spend any money on plasma TV's or vacations, because we'd have to save the money, to spend on a vehicle with the best crash test ratings in the world, and the most advanced security system in the world to keep away dangerous criminals, and bodyguards to escort us everywhere, and maybe even food testers. And of course weekly trips to the doctor to run every possible test to nip any possible disease in the bud.

Sure, if a bona fide Cat 5 is headed your way, get out however you can. But a tropical storm?