Akash and Gonu thread

[P.K.]

WTIN20 DEMS 131810

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
----------------------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-05-2007 (.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24
HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY
THE 13TH MAY 2007 NEAR LAT. 15.5 DEG. N AND LONG 90.5
DEG E ABOUT 450 KMS NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. THE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION SLOWLY .

UNDER ITS INFLUENEC , WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY FALLS ARE LIKELY OVER ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS
DURING NEXT 48 HRS.

THE SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 45-55 KMPH IS LIKELY
OVER ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS AND ADJOINING SEA AREA.
SEA CONDITION WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. FISHERMEN OF
THESE ISLANDS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA
DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

ENDS.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131121ZMAY2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131121Z MAY 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 91.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 91.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.1N 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.3N 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.1N 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.7N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 91.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF
YANGON, MYANMAR HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 131327Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED BANDING WRAP-
PING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO EASTERN
MYANMAR. TC 01B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE BREAK IN THIS RIDGE,
WHICH IS BEING CREATED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN INDIA/
BANGLADESH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AIDING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE DISTURBANCE AT 200 MB.
THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY TO NEAR 75 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL JUST AFTER
TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
131121ZMAY2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 131130)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

[P.K.]

BOB 0702 is getting Dvorak estimates of T2.5 from most agencies now so I'd expect this to be upgraded to a deep depression soon.

[JonathanBelles]

Just doing research on Nind storms and had to laugh at the categories. Who has jurisdiction on The Nind?

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

Tropical Cyclone strength classification [1]
Category Wind speed
 Knots (km/h)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Deep Depression 28–33
(52–61)
Cyclonic Storm 34–47
(62–87)
Severe Cyclonic Storm 48–63
(88–117)
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 64–119
(118–221)
Super Cyclonic Storm ≥120
(≥222)


India Meteorological Department: http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dy ... yclone.htm

[JonathanBelles]

That page cant get to much bigger

[HURAKAN]

Becoming more impressive by the minute.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Impressive, I would say 50 knots one minute. Looks like it could become a serious cyclone.

[Chacor]

Impressive, I would say 50 knots one minute.

Quite possibly...

751
TPIO10 PGTW 140017

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (W OF MYANMAR)

B. 13/2330Z

C. 16.5N/2

D. 91.5E/5

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (13/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 3.5. DBO DT. PT AGREES. UNREPRESENTATIVE MET
GIVES 3.0. SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH
INCREASING CONVCTN IN PAST 3 HOURS.

DELEO

[HURAKAN]

VERY DEEP Depression.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like our depression is not so depressed!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That is very intense convection...could this be undergoing
rapid intensification?

[wxmann_91]

The convection's probably part of the diurnal cycle, given that it's weakened a bit in the last hour-two, and LL convergence is rather weak (if you trust the CIMSS analysis, although it is known to be wrong often). But it's got nice poleward outflow. One could argue either way. If it's true RI, I'm going to get concerned.

[Derek Ortt]

please miss Bengladesh

the ONLY good that can come out of this storm as this will almost certainly undergo RI

[AnnularCane]

Deep depression? I don't think I've heard that term used before. Not in this context, I mean.

[HURAKAN]

BOB 02/2007/04 Dated : 14th May, 2007

Subject: Depression over Bay of Bengal

The depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved slowly northward and intensify into a deep depression lay centred at 0230 hrs IST of today the 14th May 2007 near Lat.16.00N and Long 90.50E about 500 kms northwest of Port Blair. The System is likely to intensify further and move in a northerly direction.

Under its influence, scattered rainfall are likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 36 hrs.

The strong southwesterly winds speed reaching 35-45 kmph is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas. Sea condition will be rough. Fishermen of these islands are advised not to venture into the sea during the same period.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm

[MiamiensisWx]

The trend likely indicates RI. Due to favorable convergence, the structure has improved. In addition, an anticyclone is established over the low. See this loop. An upper-level tropospheric trough should enhance outflow over the course of the next few hours. Shear could increase prior to landfall but this is reliant upon the evolution of the middle and upper-level flow. A slight alteration of the placement of a nearby low could enhance the exhaust system and aid intensification.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wvmet5.GIF

[Cyclenall]

It looked like it was going through RI ever since this early afternoon. Tropical systems in this area usually go through RI patterns instead of steady strengthening. Looks large and massive.

[HurricaneBill]

VERY DEEP Depression.

Seed it with Prozac.