Remnants of Andrea-Thread 3

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Opal storm

#41 Postby Opal storm » Sun May 13, 2007 8:44 am

I could really care less about what they did, overall this was a weak disorganized system heading out to sea. It was really no major threat to anybody, why waste money on it? There will be MUCH bigger fish to fry in the coming months, and by September you guys will probably not even remember little Andrea.
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 13, 2007 8:50 am

Tracking storms in not a sport but a science that has been perfected over the past of the years. You don't look at the satellite image and say, "hey, look at that storm north of Hispaniola moving northeastward, it has a circulation and organized convection, but nah, is moving away, let disregard it." That's not science, if you have a storm in the Atlantic that should be a depression or tropical storm, it must be counted against all odds. It's not like going fishing and only taking the big fish, that not science but choice.

Andrea will be difficult to forget because of its historical significance. The first May storm since Arlene in 1981.

Many here keep downplaying Andrea but she was that little plane that could.
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#43 Postby Chacor » Sun May 13, 2007 9:00 am

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#44 Postby Stormavoider » Sun May 13, 2007 9:00 am

HURAKAN wrote:Tracking storms in not a sport but a science that has been perfected over the past of the years. You don't look at the satellite image and say, "hey, look at that storm north of Hispaniola moving northeastward, it has a circulation and organized convection, but nah, is moving away, let disregard it." That's not science, if you have a storm in the Atlantic that should be a depression or tropical storm, it must be counted against all odds. It's not like going fishing and only taking the big fish, that not science but choice.

Andrea will be difficult to forget because of its historical significance. The first May storm since Arlene in 1981.

Many here keep downplaying Andrea but she was that little plane that could.


Is giving a weather system human qualities (such as determination) SCIENCE?
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#45 Postby Opal storm » Sun May 13, 2007 9:03 am

HURAKAN wrote:Tracking storms in not a sport but a science that has been perfected over the past of the years. You don't look at the satellite image and say, "hey, look at that storm north of Hispaniola moving northeastward, it has a circulation and organized convection, but nah, is moving away, let disregard it." That's not science, if you have a storm in the Atlantic that should be a depression or tropical storm, it must be counted against all odds. It's not like going fishing and only taking the big fish, that not science but choice.

Andrea will be difficult to forget because of its historical significance. The first May storm since Arlene in 1981.

Many here keep downplaying Andrea but she was that little plane that could.
Remember that they have a budget to stick to, and sometimes they do have to chose the big fish.
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#46 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 13, 2007 9:06 am

Stormavoider wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Tracking storms in not a sport but a science that has been perfected over the past of the years. You don't look at the satellite image and say, "hey, look at that storm north of Hispaniola moving northeastward, it has a circulation and organized convection, but nah, is moving away, let disregard it." That's not science, if you have a storm in the Atlantic that should be a depression or tropical storm, it must be counted against all odds. It's not like going fishing and only taking the big fish, that not science but choice.

Andrea will be difficult to forget because of its historical significance. The first May storm since Arlene in 1981.

Many here keep downplaying Andrea but she was that little plane that could.


Is giving a weather system human qualities (such as determination) SCIENCE?


No human qualities involved. The phrase applies to Andrea in the meaning that against climatology and many other factors she was able to develop and acquire a name. Many at the beginning put little faith in the possibility that the non-tropical system could acquire tropical characteristics and be named. That's all.
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#47 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 13, 2007 9:09 am

Opal storm wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Tracking storms in not a sport but a science that has been perfected over the past of the years. You don't look at the satellite image and say, "hey, look at that storm north of Hispaniola moving northeastward, it has a circulation and organized convection, but nah, is moving away, let disregard it." That's not science, if you have a storm in the Atlantic that should be a depression or tropical storm, it must be counted against all odds. It's not like going fishing and only taking the big fish, that not science but choice.

Andrea will be difficult to forget because of its historical significance. The first May storm since Arlene in 1981.

Many here keep downplaying Andrea but she was that little plane that could.
Remember that they have a budget to stick to, and sometimes they do have to chose the big fish.


I know that the problem goes much deeper and usually the NHC gets battered by us and the problem isn't exactly in their hands. Not going to say anything else not to get political, but there lies the MAIN problem.
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#48 Postby Nimbus » Sun May 13, 2007 9:12 am

Andrea was a good storm to learn from, people heard about her through the media and bought their storm supplies for the season.

Too bad she is moving out so fast. The tail end of the trough that is west of Andrea's remnants only looks like it is good for maybe a quarter inch of rain over north Florida.

Hopefully Bruno will be another tame TS, but later in the season I have a bad feeling about Felix making landfall as a cat 3.
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#49 Postby caneflyer » Sun May 13, 2007 9:15 am

HURAKAN wrote:By the way, for the next time, if you have a disturbance near your shores, the RECON airplanes should be available 24 hours/ 7 days a week. What the NHC did with Andrea was that when the storm began to look better, "hey lets call the guys and schedule a mission for tomorrow, if necessary." I just didn't like how the NHC managed Andrea, it was horrible to say the least.


Reconnaissance missions are (a) expensive, (b) potentially hazardous, and (c) tiring for the flight and ground crews. They are a resource to be used judiciously. They are not flown for the amusement of weather hobbyists.

For these reasons, reconnaissance missions are only flown when there is a significant threat to land. By yesterday morning, the remnants of Andrea were moving away from the U.S. coast and any threat to land was diminishing. Therefore, there was no need to consume these valuable resources. Furthermore, the reason Andrea wasn't upgraded was because of the lack of convective organization. There was never any question about whether there was a circulation, and not much uncertainty about the winds. A plane yesterday would not have helped in the decision making process, because the convection (or relative lack thereof) was plainly visible in satellite imagery.

Bottom line, no need for a plane.
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#50 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun May 13, 2007 9:29 am

caneflyer wrote:For these reasons, reconnaissance missions are only flown when there is a significant threat to land. By yesterday morning, the remnants of Andrea were moving away from the U.S. coast and any threat to land was diminishing. Therefore, there was no need to consume these valuable resources.
A plane was scheduled to investigate the storm saturday, but due to late breaking unexpected circumstances, they did not have the resources to fly. Hopefully these unexpected challenges in investigating this system were ones that will not show up when we have another cat 5 in the gulf. It's good to get these bugs worked out earlier in the year. Reconnaissance missions are flown when NHC needs to investigate a tropical system further, regardless of its impact on land.
Last edited by miamicanes177 on Sun May 13, 2007 9:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#51 Postby MGC » Sun May 13, 2007 9:30 am

Recon would have been a waste. No need to put a flight crew at risk. Every time the Hurricane Hunters go out to a system they risk their lives for us. At most this system will bring some gusty winds to Bermuda, cause some high seas and stir up the ocean. If this season has the potential it looks to have then the money they waste on a mission to Andrea could be used when a major is fixing to hit the USA....MGC
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#52 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun May 13, 2007 9:34 am

MGC wrote:Recon would have been a waste. No need to put a flight crew at risk.
NHC disagrees with you as they had planned to send a flight crew to investigate saturday. Once again, unexpected late breaking changes occured that prevented the mission from going forward.
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#53 Postby Opal storm » Sun May 13, 2007 9:36 am

miamicanes177 wrote:
MGC wrote:Recon would have been a waste. No need to put a flight crew at risk.
NHC disagrees with you as they had planned to send a flight crew to investigate saturday. Once again, unexpected late breaking changes occured that prevented the mission from going forward.
How exactly do you know that?
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#54 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun May 13, 2007 10:33 am

This is a couple hours old, but it can't be right. There are 50kt wind barbs in there.

Andrea Winds at NRL Navy Site

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
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#55 Postby brunota2003 » Sun May 13, 2007 10:35 am

Opal storm wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:
MGC wrote:Recon would have been a waste. No need to put a flight crew at risk.
NHC disagrees with you as they had planned to send a flight crew to investigate saturday. Once again, unexpected late breaking changes occured that prevented the mission from going forward.
How exactly do you know that?

Because yesterdays STDS said this:
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE TO RESOURCE ISSUES.
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#56 Postby drezee » Sun May 13, 2007 10:40 am

Drezee wrote:Short of this thing forming an eye...the NHC will likely not reclassifiy it to a TS.


Like I said yesterday, resistance is all for not! When the NHC called off recon, they essntially said goodbye to Andrea.
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#57 Postby Stormavoider » Sun May 13, 2007 10:43 am

It almost looks like an "eye" formed in this NASA loop.
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#58 Postby punkyg » Sun May 13, 2007 10:47 am

I smell a H H H H Hurricane!

joke!
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#59 Postby brunota2003 » Sun May 13, 2007 11:37 am

Nimbus wrote:Hopefully Bruno will be another tame TS, but later in the season I have a bad feeling about Felix making landfall as a cat 3.

I'm a tropical storm? Weird...:lol: You mean Barry, right?
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 13, 2007 12:24 pm

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