Thinking Extreme Southern Gulf Next Week

[hial2]

[quote="HURRICANELONNY"]BB .HOW OLD ARE YOU?[/quote]

Interesting question,this about age..I'm pushing 40..in fact, i've pushed it all the way to 51..am I the eldest member?

[Berwick Bay]

I'm 52. But I hate to say. I'd rather everyone use their imagination.

[StormTracker]

Age ain't nuttin but a number!!! I'm 41, got less posts than you, but u sound like you've got more insight on these creatures than me(started tracking these monsters in '92 after Andrew(my 1st experience in a hurricane))!!!Fine wine theory!!!

[tailgater]

Be careful with that shear map. It shows tendencies rather than current shear.

Does seem to be decreasing but still stout all through the GOM right now. Increased moisture in the BOC / Cuba for sure given the WV loop. That ULL dipping out of LA could give you FL guys some much need rain......

I heard others say the same as you but, I do think it shows current shear with the colors. I could be wrong but i don't think so.

[wxmann_91]

I prefer using this map: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Shows the direction the shear is coming from. Of course the best indicator of shear is satellite imagery.

The thunderstorms in Cuba are orographically and diurnally driven. Keep in mind that land based storms can actually be enhanced by shear.

GFS, FWIW, predicts strong enough mid and upper level shear that should prevent a TC from forming, at least in the next 180 hr.

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Its getting near "crunch time". I'm looking for the development of low pressure in the southern Gulf (near the Cuban Coast) over the next few days. Atlantic Upper Level Ridge will continue to back west over the Fl Penninsula, just enough to help suppress the sub-tropical zonal flow which is keeping shear levels steady in the Southern Gulf. I look for the zonal flow to be driven a little further south into the Carribean. There may be a little "niche" if you will in the Southern Gulf at the edge of the Atlantic Ridge and the oncoming trough in the Central Gulf. The Upper Level Low which came off the La. Coast is "showing the way' as far as where that weakness might be, as it slides down into the Gulf. So I'm looking for a weakness between the Atlantic Ridge, the next oncoming trough over the Central Gulf, and the Zonal Flow in the NW Carribean. I think that "spot" or weakness will be in the SE Gulf just north of the Cuban Coast. But it is getting near "crunch time".

[HURRICANELONNY]

Any models showing this?

[boca]

I don't even see any cold cloud tops in formation to initiate any low pressure in the Caribbean or GOM. I think between now and November the GFS will be right about a low forming in the area.

[HURRICANELONNY]

As I posted on another topic. The Carribean has been seeing lower pressures. So I think the models, especially the GFS keeps spitting out lows about once a week. Sooner or later the model will be right.

[boca]

I heard they upgraded the GFS model around May 1st. Is it possible that the upgrade made the model malfunction like hurricanelonny stated about picking up on lower pressures. In the past the model this time of year picked up low pressures on a run and lost it on the next run. This year its been picking up this low for weeks now run after run.I think the GFS model might be too sensitive and what I mean by that is picking up on lower barametric pressures rather than colder thunderstorm tops usually during formation of a possible low.

[Frank2]

There's nothing in the long-range (10 day) GFS that indicates anything of significance in the southern Gulf...

[vbhoutex]

I heard they upgraded the GFS model around May 1st. Is it possible that the upgrade made the model malfunction like hurricanelonny stated about picking up on lower pressures. In the past the model this time of year picked up low pressures on a run and lost it on the next run. This year its been picking up this low for weeks now run after run.I think the GFS model might be too sensitive and what I mean by that is picking up on lower barametric pressures rather than colder thunderstorm tops usually during formation of a possible low.

They did tweak the model around May 1st, but i don't know what they did. I think you could be right about picking up on the lower pressures.

[Rainband]

Seems like a plausible theory

[skysummit]

Gonna be interesting to see if you're correct. The Gulf has tremendously dropped in wind shear over the past 24 hours, but it's still strong and rather vigorous over the southern gulf at 70kts.

[Berwick Bay]

This past Monday, I posted an opinion that a tropical low (actually a Tropical Depression) could form in the Southern Gulf by May 31st. I still believe that. I'm thinking that low pressure is possible between the Ridge of High Pressure which has pushed in across Fl (further than I thought I would, I might add), and the Jet or E-W Zonal Flow across the Carribean. This of course is also not far from the original trough boundary from another old front which still dangles across the Bahamas. Boca located a small surface low which has formed just south of the western tip of Cuba. I look for this low to settle in just a tad further north than its present location (right in an area which forms a "hole" if you will between the edge of the High, the zonal flow, and the old trough boundary. This would be right about the tip of Cuba, with best chance for further organization in the extreme Southern Gulf next week.

[boca]

Berwick Bay if this verifies this will be unbelievable because you started this thread Monday May21st, five days before I picked up on this low turning south of Cuba last night. Really their was nothing down there all week. I like to see how you do the rest of the season, good job on forecasting this.

[ronjon]

It's highly doubtful anything will develop in the region as shear to forecast to remain high due to the subtropical jet overhead. Unless this shear relaxes, really no chance. If anything was to develop, I'm thinking further south in the southern carribean where shear is much less.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[tailgater]

Some turning in the low levels south of the western tip of Cuba and GOH. Shear is high and I don't see any let up in the near future, probably gonna drift WNW to the Yucatan which really doesn't hurt a weak system. Who knows it might pop out in the BOC and become one of those half storms for Texas( it would not be named Barry, but BB for it's founder).
As you can tell I do have an a imagination.

[tailgater]

From TD at 205pm
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO HAS RAIN ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 21N-26N. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS ALONG 34N98W 30N98W 28N100W
MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER TEXAS
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 96W-99W. ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO
ADVECTING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT ELY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N
FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 92W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO W OF 92W...AND ALSO S OF 20N. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN 24
HOURS. TROPICAL ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N80W 16N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
80W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-81W. 10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER N
VENEZUELA AND THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
No surprises here.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree with Berwick Bay-- the insight seems supportive:
As models indicate increasing moisture and lessening shear
as well as lower pressures in the caribbean
I think a tropical system is possible in the next 5-10 days