Invest 90E,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Thunder44]

The QuikSCAT shows a circulation around 12N 108W with winds in the northeast side of 30 knosts.

That QS pass is from last night and it showed a broad and elongated area of low pressure. This morning's QS pass missed the system, which is probably what is keeping this system from not being upgraded at this time:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas14.png

And the latest visible images, shows no well defined center:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Continues to develop.

[HURAKAN]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 12N109W 1008 MB WITH A BROAD AREA
OF DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN 360 NM OF THE
CENTER. THIS FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 15N FROM 107W TO 110W. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO STATIONARY.

"I like it like that!!!!"

[Meso]

Looking real good,nice big blow up of deep convection.Guess some of the models were right

[Chacor]

The 00Z UK Met Office forecast:

958
WTNT80 EGRR 250509

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.05.2007


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 107.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.05.2007 12.2N 107.3W WEAK
12UTC 27.05.2007 12.2N 107.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.05.2007 12.2N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.05.2007 12.1N 109.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.05.2007 12.1N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.05.2007 12.2N 109.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.05.2007 12.6N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.05.2007 13.2N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.05.2007 13.2N 109.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.1N 92.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.05.2007 12.1N 92.5W WEAK
00UTC 28.05.2007 12.2N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.05.2007 13.3N 93.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.05.2007 13.7N 94.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.05.2007 13.6N 94.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.05.2007 13.7N 94.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.05.2007 13.6N 95.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.05.2007 13.6N 95.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250509

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Patrick99]

You're telling me that's *not* a TD already??

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree.



That is a bona fide Tropical Depression, in the middle of the Caribbean or Gulf that would be classified immediately.

[Thunder44]

On visible loop, this afternnon, it looks the MLC is dislocated west of the LLC, which looks like is near 107.5W and 11.5N:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

[whereverwx]

It has excellent outflow.

[AnnularCane]

Wow, look at that little guy blossom. It starts out looking like just any cluster of storms, and then it just blossoms into...something. It's amazing to watch.

[tailgater]

I agree.



That is a bona fide Tropical Depression, in the middle of the Caribbean or Gulf that would be classified immediately.

I still don't see much in the way of banding yet, maybe 57 can see it better on his HI-Res. Sat pics.

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree.



That is a bona fide Tropical Depression, in the middle of the Caribbean or Gulf that would be classified immediately.

I still don't see much in the way of banding yet, maybe 57 can see it better on his HI-Res. Sat pics.

Perhaps, but looking at EPAC storms is never really top priority.


Point being the storm has...

-Good Outflow

-Nice tightly packed convection.

-A nice circulation.


The satellite loop provided above shows the transformation into a classic Tropical Depression. I mean it's pretty much right down to the basics of development. Also like I said, I don't think a single one of us could disagree this storm would be named TD #2 if it were in the GOM right now.

[Cyclenall]

Invest 90E is probably trying to form into a tropical depression 1-E right now. Alvin won't be too far off at this rate...

This morning it became larger and there were more clusters of storms but then by noon it can consolidated into a typical blob that is right now becoming better organized with nice outflow from all sides.

I'm not sure if it's a TD right now since we need better data from QS. Isn't this almost the same day that Aletta formed last year? I remember that late night well when I knew it had become a TD and then the next day a earthquake killed over 3000 people in Java.

I'm reading posts about how 90E may have trouble breaking free from the ITCZ. I don't think that is going to be a problem at all at this point and I can't see it connection still to it. It may have come from the ITCZ but not anymore...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looking pretty good now. Outflow seems to be getting better. Hopefully it will stay out to sea.

[Cyclenall]

A TCFA has been issued! It's moving very slowly. Here comes TD1-E...

[HURAKAN]

Alvin, are you there?!?!?!?

[benny]

I agree with a previous poster.. something is odd about the low-level circulation as best we can tell from visible pictures. there is a nice ball of convection and mid-level center 10-11n.. but it appears like any closed low-level circulation is farther to the northeast. I disagree with people thinking this would be called something if it were in another place. Satellite can be deceiving sometimes, especially with an upper high so close by making the outflow and the overall pattern look impressive.

Still wouldn't be surprised if this was a TD tonight or tomorrow morning though...

[MGC]

Excellent satellite signature this afternoon. Very close to being declared a TD IMO......MGC

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252243
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI