Tropical Depression Barry Main Thread

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Extremeweatherguy
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#41 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 01, 2007 3:59 pm

RattleMan wrote:
StormScanWx wrote:What's the earliest a second tropical system has formed in the year in the Atlantic? Does Barry break this record?


No. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlan ... _formation
If we happen to get a third storm before June 11th, then we would break a record. But for now (as the link above shows), we are about 2 weeks too late to break the record of earliest 2nd named storm.
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#42 Postby chris_fit » Fri Jun 01, 2007 3:59 pm

fact789 wrote:shear does not hur the system if it is going the same way as the shear.


Not entirely true I believe...


A System is moving N@11mph
Shear is coming from the S@30mph

Net Shear = 19mph.
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 01, 2007 3:59 pm

My estimate for peak intensity at this point: 50 knots. The Loop Current will help fuel good convection but shear will eventually take its toll. Landfall intensity: 35 knots (barely TS).
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#44 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:02 pm

I knew we would have a tropical storm today.
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#45 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:02 pm

Someone asked about Deret Ortt ...

He posted a quick Barry update at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022007.html.

He's ill, apparently, so won't be doing full forecasts.
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#46 Postby Brent » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:03 pm

THE CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BARRY SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.
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#47 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:03 pm

So long as Barry intensifies enough to justify it's TS Status like Andrea did, i'll be happy enough.
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#48 Postby feederband » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:03 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I knew we would have a tropical storm today.


Cool ...When will be the next storm? :lol:
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#49 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:03 pm

chris_fit wrote:
fact789 wrote:shear does not hur the system if it is going the same way as the shear.


Not entirely true I believe...


A System is moving N@11mph
Shear is coming from the S@30mph

Net Shear = 19mph.


The shear is blowing the high cloud tops to the north of the circulation, but it is not blowing the new thunderstorm away from the center. Shear tendency maps also show the shear decreasing by -20 right where the center is.
Image

Sat image
Image
Last edited by txwatcher91 on Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#50 Postby Opal storm » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:04 pm

Brent wrote:THE CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BARRY SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.

Yep....pretty much like Arlene in 2005.
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#51 Postby artist » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:05 pm

x-y-no wrote:Someone asked about Deret Ortt ...

He posted a quick Barry update at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022007.html.

He's ill, apparently, so won't be doing full forecasts.


thanks x-y-no
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#52 Postby chris_fit » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:06 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
fact789 wrote:shear does not hur the system if it is going the same way as the shear.


Not entirely true I believe...


A System is moving N@11mph
Shear is coming from the S@30mph

Net Shear = 19mph.


The shear is blowing the high cloud tops to the north of the circulation, but it is not blowing the new thunderstorm away from the thunderstorm. Shear tendency maps also show the shear decreasing by -20 right where the center is.
Image


I wasn't talking about Barry... I was was giving an example using "a system"
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#53 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:08 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:This is among the few times that we have seen two tropical storms by June 1. Only two years (1887 and 1908) featured two tropical cyclones that formed by June 1. This is impressive. In addition, it puts 2007 on a current pace with 2005, 1933, and other above average years.


It's very impressive and guess what Florida was in the cone and impacted by both of them.

So far Florida is 2 for 2 this year...

very scary
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#54 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:08 pm

chris_fit wrote:
I wasn't talking about Barry... I was was giving an example using "a system"


Sorry, I misunderstood your post. Still, the shear does not appear to be hurting Barry, yet.
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#55 Postby benny » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:09 pm

67 kt at flight level... nice
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#56 Postby benny » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:09 pm

benny wrote:67 kt at flight level... nice


2058. 2412N 08537W 00272 5103 352 058 172 751 059 00181 0000000100
2059 2412N 08535W 00282 5111 351 061 176 751 067 00183 0000000100
2059. 2412N 08533W 00308 5113 349 064 178 751 066 00207 0000000100
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#57 Postby artist » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:10 pm

wow!
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#58 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:10 pm

benny wrote:
benny wrote:67 kt at flight level... nice


2058. 2412N 08537W 00272 5103 352 058 172 751 059 00181 0000000100
2059 2412N 08535W 00282 5111 351 061 176 751 067 00183 0000000100
2059. 2412N 08533W 00308 5113 349 064 178 751 066 00207 0000000100


wow. :eek: I didn't expect that.
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Opal storm

#59 Postby Opal storm » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:10 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
I wasn't talking about Barry... I was was giving an example using "a system"


Sorry, I misunderstood your post. Still, the shear does not appear to be hurting Barry, yet.
I disagree, the center is struggling to wrap convection around and the entire west side of the system is dry as a bone.
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#60 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:11 pm

67 knots? That is HURRICANE force!!!

Special advisory, anyone?
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