Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

weatherrabbit_tx · #41 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:31 pm

southerngale wrote:
weatherrabbit_tx wrote:would that be mr. greg

No. His brother is KFDM Meteorologist on here. Greg is greg_kfdm_tv on here. He may not have realized there were two usernames with KFDM in them when he didn't give the complete name.

oops! I'm sure we will hear from him soon......

Wx_Warrior · #42 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:08 pm

Can't remember my brother's name on here...It's not Greg. It's Kerry.

bubbamills · #43 Postby **bubbamills** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:57 pm

Berwick, Bastardi mentioned the information in his daily videos.

Regit · #44 Postby **Regit** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:38 pm

Bubba, please check your PMs

johngaltfla · #45 Postby **johngaltfla** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 5:03 pm

Berwick Bay wrote:I'm looking for upper level conditions in West Central Gulf to improve markedly next week. Thinking that the deep trough in which Barry formed at the southern end will evacuate the Gulf by then. More stable air mass (upper levels) to be centered over the Northern Coast of the Yucutan and further north into the West Central Gulf. Expect to see storms firing near Northwestern Point of Yucutan Pennisula and spreading into the Western Gulf. Some influx of moisture perhaps from off the upper Mexican Coast. Best point for development to be about 100-150 miles northwest of the Yucutan (this is not the Bay of Campeche, we're talking well north of there). If I had to pick a point I would say about 24N and 92W. Best time frame for development in 9-12 days, June 13-June 16. One other point, if this forecast for development bears out, then I "see" a significant chance for hurricane formation at that time (and perhaps stronger than minimal). Okay, thats it.

Boooo, boooo. If you're right, which you have a nasty habit of being so, you can come down and board my house up as I'm out of the country!!!! :eek:

flwxwatcher · #46 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:31 pm

bubbamills wrote:Bastardi mentioned this in his daily findings and cited the Canadian Model. Could the Berwick Model be a Bastardi twist?

Took a look at J.B'S Video today and found no mention of this bubba.. Also.. Berwicks forecast came out before any videos would have been cut Monday// Also.. in J.B's.column the last several days and he says so again today... he stated he felt the tropics would quiet down between June 5th thru June 25th.. I am pointing this out not to put down Berwicks forecast or say J.B. is right but to show that Berwick is not copying anybodys forecasts and he is putting out his own thinking. and right or wrong Kudos to you Berwick...

As for how far the Canadian goes out you can get the ensemble forecasts out to 384 Hours..

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html

#47 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:38 pm

Off topic but I just noticed the game forum was missing...what happened?

x-y-no · #48 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:51 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Off topic but I just noticed the game forum was missing...what happened?

It was putting way too much load on the server - especially during storm events.

#49 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 6:54 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Off topic but I just noticed the game forum was missing...what happened?

It was putting way too much load on the server - especially during storm events.

Ah...well that makes sense

#50 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:01 pm

I would expect a down turn soon. That should last until mid to late june IMO!! The downward pulse of the MJO should be coming across very soon!

southerngale · #51 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:09 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Can't remember my brother's name on here...It's not Greg. It's Kerry.

Yeah, I posted it above. Your brother is "KFDM Meteorologist" on here. Funny how I know and you don't.

#52 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:44 pm

It's been bantered about on the tropical storms list since last week that long-range models are indicating another burst of convection in the SW Caribbean Sea around the 15th of June. The GFS has been hinting at such since before Barry formed. Current GFS still shows the same thing - an almost identical set-up as what we saw before Barry. More storms tracking north out of the SW Caribbean on the 14th, developing into a low center, then tracking NE across Florida. Probably a more realistic scenario given the projected upper-level pattern around the 15th, which is an upper low over south LA and SW winds across the southern Gulf. We'd have to get rid of that NW Gulf low for anything to track west toward TX.

CaneCharmer · #53 Postby **CaneCharmer** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 7:25 am

Things here in Miami sure are heating up and we're all feeling an active season!

#54 Postby **windstorm99** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 7:57 am

I really dont see anything significant takeing shape across the gulf with these fast upper level winds currently in place and really dont show any sign of coming down anytime soon.

TexLady · #55 Postby **TexLady** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 7:58 am

Now come on yall, I am really starting to get a little worried...My whole family (group of 9) is taking a 5 day cruise from Galveston to Progresso/Cozumel on June 25-29. This is my first cruise, and I'm already a little concerned about seasickness. I really don't want to think about "disturbed" weather of any kind, while I'm on that boat! :lol:

#56 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:31 am

TexLady wrote:Now come on yall, I am really starting to get a little worried...My whole family (group of 9) is taking a 5 day cruise from Galveston to Progresso/Cozumel on June 25-29. This is my first cruise, and I'm already a little concerned about seasickness. I really don't want to think about "disturbed" weather of any kind, while I'm on that boat!

Go on your cruise and enjoy yourself. You have a better chance of dealing
with seasickness than a tropical system. Now if it were August or September then
I would be a little concerned.

canegrl04 · #57 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:01 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Wow... another bold prediction. If this comes into fruition they need to put you on the NHC payroll!! Anyways, I know your forecasst may bust (maybe not) lol, but I like the reasoning behind the predictions.

ITA

If this new prediction comes anywhere close to fruition ,it proves BB's got the best insight on this board and we should all be looking to BB as an authority on the subject of tropical weather

wzrgirl1 · #58 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:04 am

TexLady wrote:Now come on yall, I am really starting to get a little worried...My whole family (group of 9) is taking a 5 day cruise from Galveston to Progresso/Cozumel on June 25-29. This is my first cruise, and I'm already a little concerned about seasickness. I really don't want to think about "disturbed" weather of any kind, while I'm on that boat!

ahh just take a little dramamine or bonine for the seasickness.....you will be fine

#59 Postby **windstorm99** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:18 am

Look how fast those clouds are moving in the gulf...Until that relaxes i dont expect development in the GOM which is great news.

Even better news is the the rain that will be moving into florida during the afternoon.

wzrgirl1 · #60 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:25 am

windstorm99 wrote:Look how fast those clouds are moving in the gulf...Until that relaxes i dont expect development in the GOM which is great news.

Even better news is the the rain that will be moving into florida during the afternoon.

yep got a great thunderstorm going over me now.......close to the everglades...i love it

Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

Re: Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 D

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