Area to keep a eye on-Western Atlantic off Florida

[bahamaswx]

I got an inch of rain in a little under 30mins from this thing today!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Development is not likely, there is little convection, but there is a possibility
if shear reduces.

I give it a 20% chance, down from the 45% I had earlier...

[DrewFL]

Looks like that monster ULL that's been spinning in the North Atlantic is heading south. Kind of interesting:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
243 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007


THEN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THINGS GET
INTERESTING WITH THE HIGH BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD AND THIS
WILL ALLOW A LARGE CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING AROUND THE
NORTH ATLANTIC TO BEGIN EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS S FLA.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. SO THE
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL REVERT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING INTO
THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING BUT STILL
THE GFS FORECASTS PWAT AT AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THIS IS A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN FILLING BY FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHT RISES BUT THE GFS SHOWS FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWEST SO STILL WOULD BE AN EAST COAST CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK BUT
MOSTLY JUST HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. BUT WE ARE TALKING SIX TO SEVEN
DAYS OUT, SO STAY TUNED.

[DrewFL]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL

GFS...NAM...AND THE EUROPEAN HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF DIGGING A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE EAST COAST. GFS INDICATED A LITTLE
RIDGING IN THE WEST GULF WHICH WOULD FLATTEN OUT AND MAINTAIN THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST ENOUGH TO KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
GETTING TOO FAR NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ITS SOLUTION EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND SPURIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
SPINNING UP ALONG IT. NOT SURPRISING TO SEE MEX POPS ADJUST UPWARD
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO WARRANT OTHER THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL POP OF 30
PERCENT. ALSO MAINTAIN EAST WINDS...AS THE SURFACE FEATURES WOULD
ALLOW DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND PERHAPS A MUCH WETTER
FORECAST. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH OVER SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE.
LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANY WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER
TROUGH.

[windstorm99]

Nasty storm rolling threw the area with lots of lighting here are some pics...

[Jinkers]

Cool pics, we had some pretty good storms today in Hollywood too.

[vmax135]

Nasty storm rolling threw the area with lots of lighting here are some pics...

Hi Adrian - That was a cool storm this afternoon... great photos!!!

-=Michael=-
www.tropmet.com

[windstorm99]

Nasty storm rolling threw the area with lots of lighting here are some pics...

Hi Adrian - That was a cool storm this afternoon... great photos!!!

-=Michael=-
www.tropmet.com

Thanks again mike...Looks like a 60 percent of thunderstorms this afternoon so we likely see the possibility of more severe weather today.

[tailgater]

Looks like a frontal low developing near NE of northern Bahamas.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... cyJTz5.jpg