South Caribbean firing

[HurricaneHunter914]

this could become hurricane chantal

IF it does form (which is unlikely) I think it would be TS Dean. I'm going out on a limb cause I think Chantal will go to the Africa System.

[Swimdude]

this could become hurricane chantal

IF it does form (which is unlikely) I think it would be TS Dean. I'm going out on a limb cause I think Chantal will go to the Africa System.

Chance of both of these scenarios panning out in early June... Slim to nothing.

[Swimdude]

Oh, and question... Which way is this Caribbean system moving anyway?

[boca]

Looks to be moving NNE

[Scorpion]

Interesting convection firing this morning

[miamicanes177]

it held up overnight and this looks good right now. Right now it is under 30kts of shear tho

[abajan]

Jamaica seems to be under the gun. On top of the flooding they had last week, if this dumps the amount of rain I expect... Well, I think you get the picture.

[drezee]

Any development is going to have to come from the Low that just came off the Columbian coast. It is to the SE of that main ball of convection.

[O Town]

I wonder how this will do once the ULL is out of the picture, if the convection will hold on. Looks like this is going around the ULL into an area with less shear.

I couldn't find a radar to see what kind of rain they are getting in Jamacia, but I am sure they will get some.
A few forecasts for Kingston said only about a 20-30% chance of rain for today and tomorrow.

[canetracker]

I noticed the wave this morning as well. It certainly looks like an impressive area that may be trying to flare up. This morning's TWD mentions it:
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. LIGHTNING DATA
DEPICTS NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH THE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST
S OF JAMAICA...AND THIS HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH N OVERNIGHT AROUND
THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA. A BIT TAMER TRADE WIND REGIME
DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SUBTLE LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE NOTED. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SFC GRADIENT IS
FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE BASIN WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS. WRN CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 76W...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL SFC PRESSURES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/101048.shtml?

[drezee]

Excuse me 12z NAM: If by chance would you tell me what you are drinking...and could a get a double on the rocks?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

Hah oh my... See if any of the other models are drinking the same in their 12z runs

[Aric Dunn]

Hah oh my... See if any of the other models are drinking the same in their 12z runs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS is doing some weird crap... on the 12 z looks a though its trying to develop something in the carrib and then looks like a t'storm complex or something that its been forecasting for the past few day moves off the SE coast and does some weird stuff

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

12Z nam is really aggressive...taking the broad low in this area down
to 1000 mb.

[drezee]

12Z nam is really aggressive...taking the broad low in this area down
to 1000 mb.

Actually it takes it to 995 mb...before a bit of filling

[boca]

Whole system is moving NNE around ULL to its NW.

[Aric Dunn]

the nogaps 00z also develops a system http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 000/4.html

weak

[sevenleft]

The GFS carries the wave northwestward through the carribbean....never does much with it tho.

By about 72 hours the GFS develops an ULL along the north Florida coast. It does have a surface reflection.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

12Z nam is really aggressive...taking the broad low in this area down
to 1000 mb.

Actually it takes it to 995 mb...before a bit of filling

oh wow...I didn't see that 995 mark....yea that would be almost a hurricane

But then again, the NAM could be smoking pot this morning....

['CaneFreak]

12Z nam is really aggressive...taking the broad low in this area down
to 1000 mb.

Actually it takes it to 995 mb...before a bit of filling

oh wow...I didn't see that 995 mark....yea that would be almost a hurricane

But then again, the NAM could be smoking pot this morning....

The NAM IS ALWAYS smoking pot....it is extremely inaccurate and should not be used to help predict tropical weather....it is not a TROPICAL based model...