LOW FORMING IN NW Caribbean RECON TOMORROW

[Frank2]

A shame - no - but, it'd be good to get the needed rain in the southeast...

[Frank2]

Lots of comments on the Invest scheduled, but, that's all it is - scheduled on paper, and, easy to cancel. As far as the crew is concerned, they are usually on some sort of standby anyway, for invests or training flights, so, that's nothing out of the ordinary for them, especially during hurricane season...

['CaneFreak]

Theres not even an LLC with this "area of disturbed weather" as you will see on the 925 mb vorticity. There is just no reflection of a low at the surface still. I would give this thing less than a 20 % chance to develop. However, the trough that plagued the east coast for days has finally moved out and shear values will probably start falling....as for where this system may go....probably will start out as a north to northwest drift but will then get caught up in the flow from a coming trough so anyone from Pensacola southeastward may get some more much needed rain...so STAY TUNED...




http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

[Frank2]

Just a comment - folks outside of civilian Government or military often think that the Government operates as seen in action movies (with people constantly running out to airplanes, firing weapons, etc.), but, that's fiction, folks...

In real life, the Government has it's planned way of doing things, per any other business or job, and, that's about it - no Tommy Lee Jones, Steven Seagal or even James Bond wing-walking sort of stuff - sorry, folks...

That's why, the Invest is just something planned on paper or by phone, and, is easy to cancel - no movie-quality stuff there...

[NDG]

Theres not even an LLC with this "area of disturbed weather" as you will see on the 925 mb vorticity. There is just no reflection of a low at the surface still. I would give this thing less than a 20 % chance to develop. However, the trough that plagued the east coast for days has finally moved out and shear values will probably start falling....as for where this system may go....probably will start out as a north to northwest drift but will then get caught up in the flow from a coming trough so anyone from Pensacola southeastward may get some more much needed rain...so STAY TUNED...




http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Actual surface reports do indicate a broad surface low just off the coast of Belize-MX border, enough to become an Invest later on today. Upper levels are not the best, but could becomer better during the day tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

one thing always to remember !! its better to be ready because the tropics even though it maybe not the best conditions for development it still happens and if your caught off guard then its worse then just scheduling a possible recon! as we have seen before even though there is shear.. if the system starts moving with the shear fast enough it can still intensify quite a bit .. so yeah ..

['CaneFreak]

Where do you see a center? 17 N 84W? This is not the only spin on this line of showers and t-storms....there is another one off of the Belize coast as you mentioned at the tail of this "area of disturbed weather".

[feederband]

At least it hasn't been a normal boring June...At least we have stuff to talk about...

[Aric Dunn]

Theres not even an LLC with this "area of disturbed weather" as you will see on the 925 mb vorticity. There is just no reflection of a low at the surface still. I would give this thing less than a 20 % chance to develop. However, the trough that plagued the east coast for days has finally moved out and shear values will probably start falling....as for where this system may go....probably will start out as a north to northwest drift but will then get caught up in the flow from a coming trough so anyone from Pensacola southeastward may get some more much needed rain...so STAY TUNED...




http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Actual surface reports do indicate a broad surface low just off the coast of Belize-MX border, enough to become an Invest later on today. Upper levels are not the best, but could becomer better during the day tomorrow.

not only that the vorticity maps are not very accurate! and there is a lot more to it than just a vort map. satellite and surface obs do indicate a possible low forming .. satellite is a little more revealing. but only time will tell same thing kind of happened yesterday i i jumped the gun .. some convection flaires up looks a though ther may be a LLC due to the inflow into the bursts of convection but then as it collapses we lose it..

right now there is no way to tell where a llc would eventually take shape there is broad turning and if one decided to close of it could be anywhere down there so dont say some coordinates ... just look in and around that area..

just watch the pressure, surface obs and satellite. look for banding or more defined curvature !!

[Aric Dunn]

please try to remember that mid level circ spin off just about ever burst of convection ... the one that is moving Ne right now is not at the surface! learn to train the eyes and differentiate between low level clouds and mid level and upper level clouds

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS don't do much but pinch one off near the Bahamas and make a clown face in the atlantic..

[KWT]

It does look rather broad, I have thought that for it to have a better chance of development it'll have to contract it a touch more, though will shear allow that to happen I have my doubts right now but its got to be watched given its in a hotspot in terms of June developing systems.

ps, BB may not be that far wrong afterall!!!

[Aric Dunn]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007061406&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFS don't do much but pinch one off near the Bahamas and make a clown face in the atlantic..

no of course not .. models rarely do well .. until the data is imputed into the model run .. for instance on the next run if then initialize a low in the NW carrib the models will change quite a bit .. they will automatically try to figure what tis going to do .. but right now they do not have data input as of yet ..

[Aric Dunn]

one thing we dont have to worry about this time is the sst's they are plenty warm and in some places warmer..


there is no NRL invest yet!!

[Scorpion]

Wow, its not looking bad. I give this a 50% chance for development.

[Aric Dunn]

this is always a good thing to remember
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

although this is for a TCFA it is a good reference to look at and use before you make a forecast or prediction, the criteria is pretty basic but tells you all this necessary details you need to look at .. well the minimal amount of data to cover

[NDG]

Where do you see a center? 17 N 84W? This is not the only spin on this line of showers and t-storms....there is another one off of the Belize coast as you mentioned at the tail of this "area of disturbed weather".

I agree with you, I see the stronger main low center off the coast of Belize as Belize city is still reporting NW winds, and as I can see east moving lower level clouds just below there off the coast of NW Honduras on the 1Km sat. loop.

[tailgater]

The area just NW of the island Roatan looks like it has the most low level rotation. To early to tell if it is moving.

[NDG]

ps, BB may not be that far wrong afterall!!!

By 500 miles away, I would call far. Like I said earlier, I tried for him to pay more attention to the NW Caribbean instead, but he did not took my advise, he still insisted in the west-central GOM.

[HURAKAN]

ps, BB may not be that far wrong afterall!!!

By 500 miles away, I would call far. Like I said earlier, I tried for him to pay more attention to the NW Caribbean instead, but he did not took my advise, he still insisted in the west-central GOM.

Not bad if it materializes!!!