Atlantic INVEST 94L

[boca]

Is 94L up by Cancun or further south off the coast of Honduras?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Air Force Met]

Okay, we'll take it up here--- but only if it's just a rainmaker! We really, really, really, really need the rain. My poor tomato plants are really struggling and my little boy asked me why they were brown! Of course, if it's gonna be more than a rainmaker, then we'll pass, thanks very much!
I guess it's another "wait and see," as usual.

I do not see how it would possibly make it to the northern Gulf Coast if it were to develop. West coast of Florida is as close as you get to the rain from it

Too much shear along the northern Gulf...and a wall of westerlies at 500mb. Sorry

[JonathanBelles]

To an untrained eye, I think it is east or SE of Cozumel.

[boca]

To an untrained eye, I think it is east or SE of Cozumel.

I was thinking the same thing but that could be the ULL.

[JonathanBelles]

To an untrained eye, I think it is east or SE of Cozumel.

I was thinking the same thing but that could be the ULL.

Like I said I have an untrained eye. Here to learn how to distinguish ULL/LLL apart.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150224
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

...CORRECTED TO ADD ELSEWHERE IN THE LAST SENTENCE...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Ivanhater]

well change of tune for the NHC...like before, things can change fast

[miamicanes177]

yipppee!!!!! come on chantal!!!!!!!!!!

[baygirl_1]

Okay, we'll take it up here--- but only if it's just a rainmaker! We really, really, really, really need the rain. My poor tomato plants are really struggling and my little boy asked me why they were brown! Of course, if it's gonna be more than a rainmaker, then we'll pass, thanks very much!
I guess it's another "wait and see," as usual.

I do not see how it would possibly make it to the northern Gulf Coast if it were to develop. West coast of Florida is as close as you get to the rain from it

Too much shear along the northern Gulf...and a wall of westerlies at 500mb. Sorry

Oh well... guess I'll put out the sprinkler tomorrow. The kids will love it more than the plants, anyway!
A question: Does this look like it will pose any problems for deep sea fishing interests along the Northern Gulf Coast this weekend? The guys are dying to get out there and catch more fish to fry and I want to be sure they aren't heading out into rough seas. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

[NDG]

As usual, it takes them a little while to change their tune. No big surprise.

[Brent]

I'm slightly interested now... first time for this system.

If this develops it'll be another weekend storm, lol.

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't understand why the NHC is calling for a "Slow NW Drift" while Wxman is sure the system will track to the NE by tomorrow afternoon.


I follow your opinion on this Wxman, any reason why the NHC is saying this thing will remain where it is?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well...I for a while really doubted that this would develop
given the shear and ULL, but since the NHC says
conditions may become more favorable I
will keep an eye on it.

[caneman]

Looks to be one them slow cookers. Not looking great right now but if it's still there in he AM tomorrow, I'll give it 50/50. 36 hours I'll give it 75% as winds will become more and more favorable.

[Air Force Met]

Oh well... guess I'll put out the sprinkler tomorrow. The kids will love it more than the plants, anyway!
A question: Does this look like it will pose any problems for deep sea fishing interests along the Northern Gulf Coast this weekend? The guys are dying to get out there and catch more fish to fry and I want to be sure they aren't heading out into rough seas. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

I think it will be great out there this weekend. Isolated showers and winds less than 10-15 kts. Seas maybe 2 feet.

[boca]

This system looks to be a quick mover. I don't understand why they said NW movement in the 10:30pm tropical update. Looks like its moving swiftly to the NE.

['CaneFreak]

I don't understand why the NHC is calling for a "Slow NW Drift" while Wxman is sure the system will track to the NE by tomorrow afternoon.


I follow your opinion on this Wxman, any reason why the NHC is saying this thing will remain where it is?

LOW LEVEL steering currents remain weak...take a look at the LOW LEVEL FLOW....its showing very weak steering currents...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Low Level steering is what steers weak systems...not upper level flow....correct me if I am wrong please...this is what I have heard said on
here many times and this is what I am basing this on. Upper level winds only affect the steering of STRONGER TCs....again...Correct me if I am wrong....

[baygirl_1]

A question: Does this look like it will pose any problems for deep sea fishing interests along the Northern Gulf Coast this weekend? The guys are dying to get out there and catch more fish to fry and I want to be sure they aren't heading out into rough seas. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

I think it will be great out there this weekend. Isolated showers and winds less than 10-15 kts. Seas maybe 2 feet.

Thanks, AFM! That's the same forecast I read from our NWS office, but thought it might change if this thing gets into the Gulf. He insisted on going out fishing the day Barry went into FL and had a horrible time-- his back was sore for 2 days from all the wave action! Here's hoping it's just some beneficial rain for South FL.

[caneman]

I don't understand why the NHC is calling for a "Slow NW Drift" while Wxman is sure the system will track to the NE by tomorrow afternoon.


I follow your opinion on this Wxman, any reason why the NHC is saying this thing will remain where it is?

LOW LEVEL steering currents remain weak...take a look at the LOW LEVEL FLOW....its showing very weak steering currents...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Low Level steering is what steers weak systems...not upper level flow....correct me if I am wrong please...this is what I have heard said on
here many times and this is what I am basing this on. Upper level winds only affect the steering of STRONGER TCs....again...Correct me if I am wrong....

I believe that is true. The uper level flow is scalping it though. It will need to hang in there at least until tomorrow to have a shot in my opinion.

['CaneFreak]

I don't understand why the NHC is calling for a "Slow NW Drift" while Wxman is sure the system will track to the NE by tomorrow afternoon.


I follow your opinion on this Wxman, any reason why the NHC is saying this thing will remain where it is?

LOW LEVEL steering currents remain weak...take a look at the LOW LEVEL FLOW....its showing very weak steering currents...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Low Level steering is what steers weak systems...not upper level flow....correct me if I am wrong please...this is what I have heard said on
here many times and this is what I am basing this on. Upper level winds only affect the steering of STRONGER TCs....again...Correct me if I am wrong....

I believe that is true. The uper level flow is scalping it though. It will need to hang in there at least until tomorrow to have a shot in my opinion.

I agree 100%