When will the first Hurricane in Atlantic form?

[Speckled Trout 1]

tailgater wrote;
Im picked july 11 to 21. Things are coming together for something to pop soon. Shear is light across most of the Basin, Sal is lessening, waves are holding together longer and climatology. I 'll guess at @ July 17 just east of the southern Bahamas
[/quote]


I believe that tailgater is spot on with this short and to the point post, so I guessed July 11-20 also.

[hial2]

I voted! Just a guess of course.............now lets see how good I am!

C'mon,stick your neck out like the rest of us..What is your forecasted date??

[fci]

I'm late to the poll but choose August 10.

[boca]

I'd say mid August around the 14th.

[HurricaneBill]

Isn't it obvious? The first hurricane will form before the second hurricane of the season.

[Agua]

I chose mid September just be be contrary.

[wxmann_91]

I put october/nobember only because I do not know when the first hurricane will form. However, I expect a season like 2005 no matter when we get our first. I think we'll see 2-3 category 5 hurricanes in the caribbean/gulf. I expect at least 1 to make landfall as a category 5 in south florida taking a path similar to Wilma. I see at least 1 category 4 making landfall in the central gulf. Possibly category 5 depending how fast it is moving. The quicker it moves the less time it has for rapid weakening. Mark this post because it will feel so weird to go back and read what I wrote as the season progresses.

If our first hurricane is in September or later, we won't see a 2005 redux, be assured. 2005 was a once in a lifetime season. I'm quite intrigued by the number of comparisons to 2005 I've seen lately (I almost can bet that for every +AMO/-ENSO year, we'll see the Year That Ends In Five crop up). And um... to get 2-3 CAT 5's is very hard to do. Keep in mind they only occur about once every two years on average.



I voted July 21-31. Reason is not based on gut or my own understanding, rather, I read a some convincing posts on another Board, from a couple of the best long range forecasters out there, about an uptick in activity during the time period.

[Sjones]

If our first hurricane is in September or later, we won't see a 2005 redux, be assured. 2005 was a once in a lifetime season. I'm quite intrigued by the number of comparisons to 2005 I've seen lately (I almost can bet that for every +AMO/-ENSO year, we'll see the Year That Ends In Five crop up). And um... to get 2-3 CAT 5's is very hard to do. Keep in mind they only occur about once every two years on average.

I'm sorry to inform ya, but 2005's season isn't a once in a lifetime thing...the chances of another one like that are pretty slim, however, not completely impossible!

[jlauderdal]

1st 10 days of august

[cycloneye]

I bomped this poll for all who haved not voted yet.

[flwxwatcher]

August 1-10th

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Sometime in august.........

[TheRingo]

around aug 18-22.

[Brent]

August 11-20 for me also.

[hcane27]

August 14

[canegrl04]

I say Aug 1-10 .Surely we will see the first hurricane by then.If not,it will probably mean a less active season overall

[dwg71]

Most of us missed.

[southerngale]

Most of us missed.

We've still got today and tomorrow for one group. Maybe a rapid developer?

[Brent]

Most of us missed.

I haven't!

[gatorcane]

If nothing forms between Aug 11th and 20th (where I think this may happen)...then nearly everybody missed.