Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[Aquawind]

[Berwick Bay]

Convection seems pretty consistent right now, if not actually increasing. Slower than normal movement for Atlantic Wave, probably has aided in consolidation which appears to have taken place overnight. System still about "only" 38W. Would expect an increase in forward speed as system gets farther west, coming under more Bermuda influence as opposed to Azores High. But every time I look at that IR Pic posted earlier in this thread it looks a little better organized.

[benny]

What a small little guy... we'll see what the visible reveals in a little bit...

[littlevince]

Visible 09:45 UTC (15m ago)


Source: Tropical RAMSDIS

[Aquawind]

Vigorous little swirl alright..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Visible: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg
From NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Visible Image: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
Visible Java Loop (when more images are available): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
From NOAA Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking very very good this morning...I say we got a developing LLC right near the core of the convection. Nice westly flow around the southern side...I would say we will get t numbers soon. If this keeps up we maybe getting something interesting.

[sunnyday]

Local Treasure Coast mets say no development.

[HUC]

Also,the buoy 1309 show clearly WSW,then SE winds when the system pass by.A small but definite swirl...

[harmclan]

It's been dealing with a strong amount of dry air in front of it over the past few hours which has been 96Ls biggest inhibitor. Shear has decreased about 5 knots to 10-15 knots over the storm. The CMC model run shows very little strengthening but does have this area continuing westward into the Caribbean near 120 hours. If this area has any chance of really developing, the best chances would be near the end of this week. SSTs are also more favorable in this area.

http://ustropics.ulmb.com

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Quikscat for 96L:

Latest: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html
Main: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi ... t_storm.pl

Gusts of 30-35 knots indicated, but with black barbs around it, I'm not sure how much it can be trusted.

Main Quikscat images are not updating correctly on that site.

[Ivanhater]

well it made it through the night...small systems like this can blow up quickly...could die just as quick....on my way to work but I remember 2 years ago on the 4th of July tracking Dennis...this looks interesting so Ill check back after work! Have a great day everyone

[Aric Dunn]

circulation is on the north side of that convection

[NDG]

Quikscat for 96L:

Latest: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html
Main: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi ... t_storm.pl

Gusts of 30-35 knots indicated, but with black barbs around it, I'm not sure how much it can be trusted.

Main Quikscat images are not updating correctly on that site.

Yeah, I don't know if I could trust some of those arrows, for example, it shows eastery winds near buoy 13009, 8N/38W, when in fact it has been reporting a westerly wind for a few hours now.

[cycloneye]

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N25W 10N46W 8N59W. A 1014 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE LOW CENTER.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

This is the 8:05 AM EDT TPC discussion.Still with the ITCZ.

[abajan]

Wouldn't this be TD#1, and not TD#3, since Andrea and Barry were never classified as TD's?

Even though Andrea and Barry were never classified as TD's, technically they still had to pass through that stage to become a TS. For instance, a car cannot go from 0 mph to 60 mph without going through 30 mph (unless it's a ferarri ).

[HURRICANELONNY]

Anyone know where you can get archives of past years of the SAL. I'm curious of how much SAL was prevalent during the 2005 season. This site doesn't seem to link to any SAL archives.http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

[Frank2]

This morning TWC mentioned that it will encounter a very stable environment over the next couple of days, so....

[caneman]

Frank,

Stable meaning favorable for devlopment or unfavorable?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

This morning TWC mentioned that it will encounter a very stable environment over the next couple of days, so....

Only slightly more stable according to the SHIPS model:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt
Look for: TH_E DEV (C)

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Generally, the more unstable an environment is, the more convection you have.