Possible low off east coast of Florida

[Aric Dunn]

OK LLC IS OFF SHORE AND HEADING NNE >>>>

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-ir2.html

jax radar and satellite show some pretty deep convection starting to fire..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

On floater 2:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Does anyone know if NOAA perhaps call these invests because they are on metwatch but have yet to be officially numbered?

[drezee]

I believe the low is almost stationary now. It is being influenced by the convection.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Jacksonville Radar:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

You can see the spin to the NW of the convection.

From the 5:30 AM EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:

"AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO."

---

Adding some visible satellite loops to post:

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... tte=ir.pal (Java Loop)

[NDG]

On floater 2:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Does anyone know if NOAA perhaps call these invests because they are on metwatch but have yet to be officially numbered?

Most times once they move a floater over an area of disturbance and name it "Invest" on the sat floater, it later becomes an official invest, but being that surface pressures are high, convection is well removed from the center and upper level conditions are the best, I really doubt it will become an invest. But you never know, being that is so close to the coast they might do it to see what models do with it.

[Cyclone1]

Looking pretty good. I could see this becoming an invest soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking pretty good. I could see this becoming an invest soon.

yeah .. looks like it may

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What environmental conditions are not favorable? The
official discussion says that but I am not sure why?

Looks favorable to me..but I am no expert so that is
why I am asking this question.

[storms in NC]

how many storm developmented in this area over the past few years? So I really wouldn't write it of but it wouldn't be any thing really big either.

deb

[jrod]

I'd give it less than a 20% chance of making it to a TD, it needs to fire up near the center(this may be happening now) and have them sustain for it to have a chance. This is an area where a lot of storms form.......

[storms in NC]

From the look at the loop it will be pushed out to sea my the front.

[Aric Dunn]

From the look at the loop it will be pushed out to sea my the front.

probably

[jrod]

It may drift east, but i dont see it going out to see in the next 72hrs.

[Recurve]

I'd give it less than a 20% chance of making it to a TD, it needs to fire up near the center(this may be happening now) and have them sustain for it to have a chance. This is an area where a lot of storms form.......

Compared to the western Atlantic south of 25N, Caribbean and Gulf I would have thought the Straits east of Daytona aren't so favored for spawning cyclones. More for sfc lows to develop and get swept up by upper troughs? That's just my take. Did have a homegrown spike last few years.

[Cyclone1]

Convection diminishing, but that's likely temporary.

[Recurve]

Do have to say, impressive convection in the northern Bahamas and south florida, more than anywhere in the tropics.
Low or trough somewhere nearby, ridge not firmly established, West coast or north breeze, outflow boundaries heading south. Seems it's been a pattern since May.

Wide view:
IR color loop

If it develops into anything, let it drift over the Lake. I guess a trough is going to take it out?

[jrod]

Im thinking the ill defined low will vanish or get pushed out to sea but a lot of the energy will stay behind off of central florda and may find favorable in 36hrs or so.

[Recurve]

Im thinking the ill defined low will vanish or get pushed out to sea but a lot of the energy will stay behind off of central florda and may find favorable in 36hrs or so.

I could see that.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Somewhat expect pressures to go down centered around 78W 27.5 N

[jrod]

Only time will tell...........

[NDG]

Im thinking the ill defined low will vanish or get pushed out to sea but a lot of the energy will stay behind off of central florda and may find favorable in 36hrs or so.

Sorry to tell you this, but surface and mid level ridge are moving in from the Atlantic, the atmosphere will be stable by then, from FL on eastward, with only inland afternoon thunderstorms.