Houston/Galveston area hurricane chatter...

[Ptarmigan]

Those photos of Jasper after Rita are disturbing. Houston could have the same scene after Rita.

[jasons2k]

From the Houston Chronicle:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ane_1.html

July 13, 2007
2007 Hurricane Season: Cause for concern
Well so far, with two minimal tropical systems this year, we're well behind the record 2005 hurricane season (Hurricane Emily had already formed!), and a smidge ahead of last year (Tropical Storm Beryl didn't form until July 18). And the good news is that there appear to be no imminent tropical storms or hurricanes out there.

You want the bad news?

Any storm reaching the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea should find ample warm water with which to work. One of the best measures of this capacity for a storm to rapidly intensify, as we saw with Katrina and Rita, is the tropical cyclone heat potential.

The map for earlier this week appears below. Anything above 80 kilojoules-per-square-centimeter (faint yellow) is warm enough for intensification, and areas in orange and especially red are to be feared.



And here is a map for this time of year in 2005:



It's worth noting that heat potential generally should only increase during the next few months unless a major storm passes through and stirs up cooler water from below.

So what does this tell us? I'm certainly not saying there's another Rita or Katrina in store for this summer. But given the heat potential in the Gulf it's possible, and coastal residents ought to be quite wary of tropical systems that develop in the Caribbean or reach the Gulf of Mexico.

So let us hope that wind shear, Saharan dust or other factors ensure that they do not.

[wobblehead]

I worked in Texas City for awhile and lived across the street from NASA Center. Traveling to work crossing over the bridge in Kemah was a small island the name of which I don't recall. Some buddys of mine bought land and built on this island. I told'em they were crazy because it is very low elevation. Real pretty place though.

[Shoshana]

Yeesh. I remember trying to help find gas for SouthernGale when she got stuck in Jasper!

And for anyone interested ... Jasper is farther north than you might think. It's well north of The Woodlands, north of Conroe, north of Huntsville even.

Jasper should have been ok except Rita ran right over it.

If there's a storm as big as Carla there will be damage hundreds of miles inland - Carla was still a Cat 1 transitioning to a Tropical Storm when she barrelled thru just east of Austin in 1961.

People on the coast need to be able to get out quickly. Worst comes to worst, there's not really going to be anywhere guaranteed to be safe somewhere like Galveston or Texas City etc. If you're in The Woodlands or Conroe, your best bet is to find out where there's a place you can go locally that will be safe rather than trying to get to Dallas or something.

I had family that didn't listen to me - they're in Houston and I told them - leave waaay early or find someplace close. (Like... in the neighborhood) They got caught in the nightmare on 290 trying to get to Belton...

And remember - it's almost always better to evacuate NW rather than N or NE ...

That all said, I hope we have a quiet season in Texas. I don't want to see any more flooding here. (Did anyone ever show correlation between years we had a lot of flooding and years Texas had hurricanes???)

'shana

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know in a direct hit from a 3 or 4, the Flagship Hotel would probably wind up losing an exterior wall, maybe even dropping into the Gulf, and I'm pretty certain they'd close even for a Cat 1, but I'll bet it would be rather exciting to have a room there during a strong T.S. or minimal hurricane.


I was fishing there last weekend, caught one whiting. Probably big enough to eat, but I cut it up for bait, and didn't get another bite, even when I switched back to squid.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

southrngale -

I was dead even with you - I was at Ivanhoe and yes this is Mel. I would prefer to have "0" storms enter the Gulf for the next 100 years. That is my request, so lets make it happen people!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Those photos of Jasper after Rita are disturbing. Houston could have the same scene after Rita.

Being closer to the coast, downtown Houston would have looked even worse than Jasper following Rita. And considering Rita was only a low-end Category 3, imagine what could happen if a 4 or 5 hit. Not a pretty scenario to think about at all!

[Normandy]

^Some data even suggests Rita wasnt even a major at landfall, which is startling.

[HurricaneRobert]

Those look like very shallow-rooted trees, but they are the same as the ones all over TW. I don't see much wind damage to the houses. I bet they were built in wooded areas and all the equipment running over the ground damaged the trees. They never recovered. That's why I would never live in a place like the Woodlands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This photo from Seminole county, FL (which is north of Orlando) after Hurricane Charley gives you a good idea of what gusts to around 100mph can do to a heavily pined area:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/Seminole/Seminole6.jpg



One small positive about pine trees though is that a large forest of them (like the one in this picture) can actually help block some of the wind from reaching the surface structures and prevent structural damage a little bit. That is the reason most of these homes only suffered minor damages in the area this picture was taken. Other structures not protected by the forest in the same general vicinity looked like this: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/Seminole/Seminole2.jpg , http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/Seminole/Seminole3.jpg. Big difference, eh?

With that said though, many of the homes in the woodlands are closer to the pine trees and thus are more likely to have them fall directly on the structure. In that case, the small bit of wind protection makes virtually no difference since the home will still be damaged anyways by the trees themselves. With multiple trees falling onto a home, the damage may actually wind up worse than by the force of wind alone.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

HurricaneRobert -

Pine tree roots go deep into the ground - as deep as the tree is tall!!!

Also, my roof blew off my house in Port Neches, no trees on my house.
I also saw a sign that was made from steel gurders and it looked like a twisty toy...please don't tell me the wind wasn't blowin...that hard - I was in it.

[hial2]

[quote="Extremeweatherguy"]This photo from Seminole county, FL (which is north of Orlando) after Hurricane Charley gives you a good idea of what gusts to around 100mph can do to a heavily pined area:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/Seminole/Seminole6.jpg



Amazingly enough,not much damage to the homes among the trees...Perhaps (half in jest), building a home surrounded by pines,but not close enough to be damaged by their falling,could help protect them from the wind?..(Just in case,I just registered my idea)

[Extremeweatherguy]

This photo from Seminole county, FL (which is north of Orlando) after Hurricane Charley gives you a good idea of what gusts to around 100mph can do to a heavily pined area:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/Seminole/Seminole6.jpg



Amazingly enough,not much damage to the homes among the trees...Perhaps (half in jest), building a home surrounded by pines,but not close enough to be damaged by their falling,could help protect them from the wind?..(Just in case,I just registered my idea)

lol. yes, you are exactly right. Building a house surrounded by pines, but none close enough to fall onto the home may not be such a bad idea. The thick forest of trees seems to act like a wind shield for the structures within.

[Shoshana]

How much wind does it take to blow over trees anyway? Especially as soggy as the ground is now?

I was driving up 290 in Austin a few years ago when what the weather people called a downdraft went across the road in front of me. It snapped 5 telephone/power poles and send a big billboard flying across the road. They said it was 80 mph ... if that was 80 mph I don't want to be anywhere near a hurricane... some people had part of their siding peeled off down the street.

I always thought pines were shallow rooted. You learn something every day!