Interesting .. thought... or not ??( western gulf)

[lrak]

Shouldn't this blob die pretty soon? Or shouldn't we see an outflow boundry from its collapse?

[NDG]

Shouldn't this blob die pretty soon? Or shouldn't we see an outflow boundry from its collapse?

The convection near Tampico MX has a nice SE inflow, so I'll doubt it would die out right away.

[Sanibel]

Hey! That's cyclogenesis forming off Tampico.

I'll bet my bippy on it!

IR imagery formation signature if I've ever seen it.

[Steve]

I'm just going to say this without any model support - the longer that convection lingers near to the coast (diurnal or whatever as it is), there are a couple of waves barrelling in toward it that could easily provide a spark. Chances are low, but home-spun storms in the Western Gulf have been known to crank up when multiple systems collide, mix and uncouple.

[lrak]

is Bret coming to Corpus again?

[PTrackerLA]

It certainly looks interesting. I would say if it were to move NNE some we'd have a shot at development but it's just too close to land right now. I don't see anything in the steering currents that would move it any further offshore either. Something to look at though.

[vbhoutex]

brownsville radar showing a mid level rotation, I say mid level because it's a long ways from radar site hard to say whats at the surface. This blob does seem to have some inflow but it should move NNW.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I don't see any mid level rotation. Maybe I am looking in the wrong place? Everything I see rotating is rotating around the ULL to the West in N Mexico.
It will be intersting to see what is sparked over the next two days with the incomng moisture from the SE.

[southerngale]

I don't see any rotation either. It just looks like a big blob of rain to me.

[Normandy]

Mmmmmm this thing generated a vigourous MLC, can easily see it on Brownsville long range radar.

[BreinLa]

Okay please tell me this stuff is moving north I am leaving for Florida in the morning and I don't want this stuff following me!!!!!!!!

[southerngale]

Mmmmmm this thing generated a vigourous MLC, can easily see it on Brownsville long range radar.

The radar is down at the end of that loop. Yesterday, while we were getting heavy rain in Beaumont and surrounding areas, the local NWS radar (LCH) was down for maintenance as well. They seem to go out at the most inopportune times.

[Normandy]

Check out a visible shot...you prolly can see it on that as well. Its pretty vigorous though, and we in SE Texas should probably be thankful the setup wasnt farther east in the gulf, this prolly would have spun up into something.

Also of note, a trough is now over Northern Mex causing a windshift.
http://www.khou.com/weather/dan_meador/chart_71807.jpg
Almost made it down to the surface as well.

[Nimbus]

Persistence is the key and this area has been bursting all day, wonder if the NHC will give this a mention?

[NDG]

A mid level circulation is very evident near Tampico, but if there's a surface low trying to get going is just east of Tampico, as winds in Tampico have been of a NNE or NE direction all afternoon, there's now a westerly wind reported about 100 miles S of Tampico, when there should had been an easterly seabreeze wind reported by now in the town of Poza Rica.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMPA.html

[Aric Dunn]

..DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE IN THE WRN PORTION.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF AND ALONG
THE NE MEXICO COAST FROM 22N-27N W OF 95W. ADDITIONALLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OFF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST AND SW LOUISIANA. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
1012 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTERREY MEXICO WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 28N94W. WSR-88D IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS SHOWS WELL DEFINED TURNING IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY
SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY LIES ALOFT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR 27N104W AND AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N92W. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS
JUST S OF MOBILE NEAR 29N88W. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN QUASI
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS IN THE NE PORTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW IN THE
SW PORTION.



all it would have to do is move 50 miles to the east.. then we would have something ... to watch ..

[Aric Dunn]

[wxman57]

There's nothing in the Gulf or BoC that looks promising. Just fast-moving areas of thunderstorms. Development chances slim to none there. But the tropics are coming alive as we move toward the 4th week of July. Another 7-10 days and we could well have something that might have a good chance to develop.

[Aric Dunn]

There's nothing in the Gulf or BoC that looks promising. Just fast-moving areas of thunderstorms. Development chances slim to none there. But the tropics are coming alive as we move toward the 4th week of July. Another 7-10 days and we could well have something that might have a good chance to develop.

your right.. the LOW is just inland over mexico..

if it moved offshore.. then we would have to pay attention .. a little more.. but that its unlikely that it will move offshore..

[DESTRUCTION5]

There's nothing in the Gulf or BoC that looks promising. Just fast-moving areas of thunderstorms. Development chances slim to none there. But the tropics are coming alive as we move toward the 4th week of July. Another 7-10 days and we could well have something that might have a good chance to develop.

your right.. the LOW is just inland over mexico..

if it moved offshore.. then we would have to pay attention .. a little more.. but that its unlikely that it will move offshore..

It could easily reform East..Would not be the 1st time ive seen this happen..

[Aric Dunn]

There's nothing in the Gulf or BoC that looks promising. Just fast-moving areas of thunderstorms. Development chances slim to none there. But the tropics are coming alive as we move toward the 4th week of July. Another 7-10 days and we could well have something that might have a good chance to develop.

your right.. the LOW is just inland over mexico..

if it moved offshore.. then we would have to pay attention .. a little more.. but that its unlikely that it will move offshore..

I could easily reform East..Would not be the 1st time ive seen this happen..

true..