Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[Berwick Bay]

Caneman said
Looks to me like the southern part of the wave is the area to watch. Looks like it has caught up with the Longitude of the ULL to its North. I think once it gets by there we'll need to watch. Don't see anything at all developing if at all till Central or West Carib. IMO.
___________________________________________________
Yes Caneman. I've been saying for several days now, that the central-west Carib south of the central Cuban coast could be the area to watch. (21N-79W) or just south of the central Cuban coast during the latter part of July. Right now there's a ULL at that location, but it looks to be weakening, and I noticed along with Alan from UK that there is a tendency for TS' near the center of the weakening ULL south of Cuba. I think that this is a sensitive area, and with energy from much stronger tropical waves coming in from the open Atlantic, I think this is the area to watch in the next 7-10 days.

[windstorm99]

This is area to watch in opinion as you can already see some hints of mid-level spin in the area.

[cycloneye]

This is the radar from Puerto Rico,where you can see how much rain will fall later today and tonight as this wave moves thru the area.

[Berwick Bay]

I see that the title has been changed (correctly so). Thank you Windstorm for those excellent views of this area of interest which I think is becoming more intriguing all the time. I know that many talk of the NW Carib, but I have purposefully tried to distinguish what I think will be the prime area of cyclogenesis as the central-west Carib (at 21N and 79W). I know that the central Carib is not normally looked at as a likely place for development (compared to the NW Carib), but in July the potential of the central Carib is somewhat higher (from my experience). And who knows, my timeframe of July26-29 may even be a little late!! As this area in the East Carib is beginning to impress.

[boca]

I think this tropical wave SE of PR might clip us here in South Florida, unlike the one last week that went south of us.Hey Berwick 21N 79W is only 300 miles from us.

[windstorm99]

As of the 8:05am discussion the NHC states its moving west @ 15-20mph.

TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 20N61W 14N64W 6N64W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-70W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 59W-69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO THE ABC ISLANDS.

[drezee]

It is not much of a looker, but I an truly thinking that the wave is going to be a player. It has a upper ridge in step with is and the convectiion is increasing. The buoy in the E caribbean has fallen 3 mb over 24 hours as well. I believe that this will possibly become Chantal. If you go through the caribbean "dead zone" and increase in convection and organization than you have something going for you.

[storms in NC]

By the way the Gulf looks it will stay going west. The is ridge over the northen part of the gulf I think it will run into Honduras IMO But what do I know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

It's definitely the best looking wave I have seen moving through the Caribbean this season. Notice the ULL in the Western Caribbean and one east of the Bahamas. Could keep it in check for a while....

Pressure drops in the area could mean something is getting going.

[Sanibel]

Definite curvature there.

Clue: Anything that stays together in the Caribbean graveyard has something to it. (I see "dreeze" said this as well)

[tailgater]

I'm just now starting to check this area out, is the area near the ABC islands what this thread is about. Cus it looks a little like something going on down there.

[wxman57]

It doesn't look too interesting to me. Just a bit more amplitude than previous waves, but convection/organization is lacking. I don't see anything to steer it into the Gulf, so it should just track west into Nicaragua. Some of the moisture may be drawn northward across the western Gulf toward Texas, as with the last wave, but that's about it. Still about 7-10 days away from any real development threat, I think.

[meteorologyman]

There is some dry air just west of the wave

[Sanibel]

WX57 is probably right on this one. If you look at the visible loop the center of the wave axis is well into Venezuela. We'll see if it shifts over water.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

Also the first time the Atlantic graphical TWO is used:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[tailgater]

Maybe an invest later huh.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Nimbus]

Blob watchers are going to have fun with this one. Current burst near 13N looks interesting. Thats a little further south than the consensus for development. Sometimes caribbean storms move west faster than the ridge they develop under and get steered north. Early long shot guess is a TD south of Jamaica.

[TheRingo]

RAMSDIS has it on a floater.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[HURAKAN]