Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

Hey Aric. That swirl has been replaced by another coming up from the east above DR. Which tells you it is a synoptic vortex from all the systems and trade winds converging there. No surface feature. The wave is just a weak open tropical wave being badly sheared by a basin-wide hostile environment.

Nothing there. Wait til August.

its the overall curvature.. that im paying more attention .. to .. that area was just where it appeared to rotating about.. overall curved area (wave axis) extend well N of th area.. . whole point if something is to close of it would within or near the north part of the wave axis..

[Sanibel]

whole point if something is to close off it would within or near the north part of the wave axis..

Which is unlikely in the face of a wicked environment full of ULL shear.

[cheezyWXguy]

whole point if something is to close off it would within or near the north part of the wave axis..

Which is unlikely in the face of a wicked environment full of ULL shear.

Wow, you're harsher than the NHC...even they give this area a chance for development...I say its just a wait and see game...watch it over the next couple of days. According to the NHC, conditions may improve so this idea of development isnt too far fetched

[Aric Dunn]

exactly its always a wait and see .. game.. i never said it would tonight or anything.. i also gave it a very low .chance.. and just basically said this is the area where the models are picking up on it.. then moving north .. to where the NHC said the plane may go .. on sunday.. thats it..

[CourierPR]

Aric, is this area beginning to consolidate?

[windstorm99]

You can have the warmest SST'S but if atmospheric conditions arent there nothing with will develope.You can see this is still the case for now across the basin and i suspect things will begin to change in the coming weeks as it normally does during a normal season.

[canetracker]

You can have the warmest SST'S but if atmospheric conditions arent there nothing with will develope.You can see this is still the case for now across the basin and i suspect things will begin to change in the coming weeks as it normally does during a normal season.

I agree. IMO, I am not expecting development til mid to late August. Just my 2 cents

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't expect tropical cyclone development from this during the next 24-36 hours. Maybe slow if any.

[Blown Away]

Didn't the NHC say a low may form near 33/66? The location your talking about is much farther S.

[storms in NC]

the Ull to the east of Bahamas is moving back up to the north now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[Cyclone1]

the Ull to the east of Bahamas is moving back up to the north now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

So, what does that mean? Is it going to drag our little wave north or let it drift west?

[storms in NC]

the Ull to the east of Bahamas is moving back up to the north now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

So, what does that mean? Is it going to drag our little wave north or let it drift west?

I don't think either way. Just seen it was moving back north that's all.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Interesting morning so far!!

[punkyg]

Did this ever develop a sfc low?

[wxman57]

I believe you need to change the title of this thread. There is no low forming anywhere at the surface. I just plotted a surface map of obs from 00Z-12Z and pressures south of Bermuda to the DR are relatively high (1016-1020mb). All wind observations are straight out of the southeast from the eastern Caribbean to the east U.S. Coast. As I said yesterday, a low will not form east of the Bahamas or near the DR. If anything is to develop, it'll develop if convection organizes near the upper-level low that's up near 29N/66W, about 200 miles SSW of Bermuda. The wave axis is long gone, it's along 77W south of Jamaica, so forget the "top of the wave".

IF development is to occur, then it's going to have to come from the upper-level low building down to the surface. South of the low (and north of the DR), wind shear is way too high for any development. But in order for the low to build down to the surface, deep convection needs to build near the upper low center and persist for 24-48 hours. That's not happening, and it probably won't have any time to happen as the upper low is beginning to accelerate to the north in advance of the approaching front/upper-level trof. Not much time to build down to the surface, combined with a lack of persistent deep convection near the upper low center means development is very unlikely. I'd give it at most a 5% chance of development, and that may be generous. Almost any other thunderstorm cluster in the deep tropics would have as much chance.

Give it another week before there may be a real chance of development. As I say every year, if something really has a shot at development, I'll say so.

[jrod]

Any experts thing the ULL has a chance of making it down to the surface? Also the front off of the Carolina's has some strong north winds and the ULL is about to collide with that area, so a surface circualtion in that general area seems likely.

[jrod]

Thanks wxman. At least my area has ended the flat spell and I'll be getting some waves here shortly.

[Aquawind]

As I say every year, if something really has a shot at development, I'll say so.

Interesting.. That explains alot.. No wonder you have to plead until your blue in the face at times with statements like that.. nice job calling out the amatures..

[wxman57]

As I say every year, if something really has a shot at development, I'll say so.

Interesting.. That explains a lot.. No wonder you have to plead until your blue in the face at times with statements like that.. nice job calling out the amateurs..

Hey, I'm a hurricane nut as much or more so than anyone else here. I get excited when something starts to form (ok, maybe less so for a weak system on my day off) The difference is that I'm dealing with high-dollar clients who are asking me if they should risk their multi-billion dollar platforms by scheduling installations 7-10 days from the present day. Have to be very careful to leave my feelings out of the equation and just examine the facts. Many of the "amateurs" here remind me of myself back in the 1960s/1970s. Back then, there was no internet and little in the way of satellite data (but we did have color TV by the mid '60s. ). I'd have been on here all the time anxious for some type of development back then. Now, I have a great deal of pressure on my forecast team go get it right. Can't afford any mistakes.

That said, I really do appreciate all the "amateurs" on the S2K board. You guys keep us pros on our toes all the time. I told my hurricane team to check in here regularly. You'll never miss a potential development situation. Now you may be a little over-enthusiastic at times, but I'll try to remember what it was like for me long ago.