99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[vaffie]

Will be interesting to watch conditions in Puerto Lempira, Honduras on the northern coast, as it approaches. Winds have shifted to out of the north for the last four hours as the wave approaches.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Also, offshore that area, a ship at 16.2N, 81.8W was reporting 24 knot winds and a pressure of 1011 mb.

[lrak]

Based upon what?

Wherever it goes and when I mention Gulf Coast, it's from Mexico to Florida. With convection, you get rain.

That got a real laugh out loud.

[x-y-no]

Unfortunately, the nearest bouy is out of service.

Station 42057 failed on 07/03/07. It will be restored to service when it can be worked into the schedule. When the service date is known, it will be posted in the weekly maintenance report.

[vaffie]

There has also been a ship report in the last hour from northwest of the big firey ball--as I like to call it--of 35 knot winds.

[HURAKAN]

Nice change, convectively, over the past few hours.

[Normandy]

There has also been a ship report in the last hour from northwest of the big firey ball--as I like to call it--of 35 knot winds.

What direction were the winds? That would be very important in determining whether or not a circulation is getting down to the surface. If they are NW of the blowup, then winds should be turning SE in a developing low (if im not mistaked).

[Aric Dunn]

There has also been a ship report in the last hour from northwest of the big firey ball--as I like to call it--of 35 knot winds.

What direction were the winds? That would be very important in determining whether or not a circulation is getting down to the surface. If they are NW of the blowup, then winds should be turning SE in a developing low (if im not mistaked).

you mean coming from the NW

[Normandy]

^Well yes, coming from the NW in a developing low, thats correct. Got mixed up again.

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 0000 16.80 -81.10 110 35.0 - 6.6 2.0 - - 29.91 +0.01 79.9 84.2 71.1 1.2 8 - 9.8 8.0 80

I don't think that 35-knot wind came from the disturbance based upon the coordinates.

[Normandy]

Ok there is DEFINITELY some rotation in that blob....im pretty confident of it now...though its most likely at the mid-levels still.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Look how the convection is behaving (click a 20 frame image and note its behavior towards the end). It appears like its got some spin.

[x-y-no]

Looks to me like the descending pass of Quikscat should catch the disturbance later tonight (just eyeballing it based on where the pass went a couple of hours ago.

Don't know how fast they get it posted ...

Looks like I was wrong ... our disturbance is going to be missed.

[Aric Dunn]

I agree there some turning going on i see outflow boundaries racing off to the west then bending SW and south.. and there are clear cloud line coming from the south a little further east.. but the only problem if a circulation would to even try to get going Honduras is right there and its moving fast.. thats the case there is very little time and realistically not enough .. but if it were to say take shape more north it would have all the way to Belize and the Yucatan.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on all the shear (darn shame NOAA Nesdis site has dropped 99L) and IR2 loop of Caribbean, if an LLC is forming, it is/will be on extreme South end of the blob.

[Aric Dunn]

Based on all the shear (darn shame NOAA Nesdis site has dropped 99L) and IR2 loop of Caribbean, if an LLC is forming, it is/will be on extreme South end of the blob.

which would give till about maybe early morning before its inland, unless a more wnw motion started and or it slowed down to about 10mph then it may more time

[Jam151]

Is anyone else having trouble loading this loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

Is anyone else having trouble loading this loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

nope have it up now

[Normandy]

^I assure you this won't be inland early tom morning, its forward motion has slowed considerably since last night. Look at how much the convection has moved in the past two hours.

[NDG]

This is still an open wave at the surface, with some indications of ML turning, nothing new, other than convection firing up tonight.

[astrosbaseball22]

looks like it is moving southwest

[Aric Dunn]

^I assure you this won't be inland early tom morning, its forward motion has slowed considerably since last night. Look at how much the convection has moved in the past two hours.

im not sure how you are judging the speed of this thing . but it is going to be moving overland by tomorrow... it would have to slow a lot more before it would have enough time for anything to happen .. although there is more turning and convection its still moving fast..