Long-Term Model Runs

[Meso]

Well it shows a cyclone in 5 days Just not a very deep one (yet)

[wzrgirl1]

The odds of this exact sceneario panning out 16 days down the rode are very slim folks...could it happen, sure it could but chances are slim that it won't.

[Scorpion]

The odds of this exact sceneario panning out 16 days down the rode are very slim folks...could it happen, sure it could but chances are slim that it won't.

Of course noone actually thinks this exact scenario will pan out, but a hurricane in 10 days is possible

[Opal storm]

The odds of this exact sceneario panning out 16 days down the rode are very slim folks...could it happen, sure it could but chances are slim that it won't.

The exact scenerio is not what im focused on, I'm interested in the possibility that something might develop in a week or so.

[skysummit]

The odds of this exact sceneario panning out 16 days down the rode are very slim folks...could it happen, sure it could but chances are slim that it won't.

The exact scenerio is not what im focused on, I'm interested in the possibility that something might develop in a week or so.

True...it's not the exact track, nor intensity. It's the idea that this is the first time the GFS is showing a storm like this the entire season. It's also showed it 3 runs in a row now. Plus the UKMET and Canadian are also showing hints of it. It may not be the exact date, location, and strength, but chances are getting higher and higher we'll be seeing a hurricane within two weeks.

[decgirl66]

A couple of weeks prior to the formation of Katrina in 2005 someone posted a graph/model that showed a whopper of a storm forming and going right through the GOM and up the Mississippi River. I remember it was female name who posted the graph/model and said something to the effect, "God help those in the path if this monster were to form" something like that. After Katrina formed and before we had to evacuate, I kept looking at that post and remembering she was right! Well since, I lost my home and computer in Katrina, I was in Plaquemines Parish where Katrina hit first and worst, I can't find the post. Anyone remember?

Check the past storms archive...might be there

[Dean4Storms]

Have to admit though, if this were to play out the ramifications don't look good at all. That size a storm at that location in late Aug. could very well be Katrina's Daddy. Most of the landfalling monsters above all others usually come late Aug. or into the 1st week of Sept. when UL winds are usually the lightest and the SST's are at boiling point to add fuel to the fire such as Andrew, Camille, Katrina, Charley, Labor Day 1935 e.t.c....

[Sanibel]

If I was a gambler I'd feel safe betting against it. ITCZ is weak. SAL is dry where it counts. Basin synoptic is jumbled.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has not predicted anything so far this season and finally is predicting something to develop from a wave off Africa. While it calls for this wave to develop several days from now. SAL may be less at that point.

[Opal storm]

If I was a gambler I'd feel safe betting against it. ITCZ is weak. SAL is dry where it counts. Basin synoptic is jumbled.

Right now it is, but it's not going to remain that way for much longer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If I was a gambler I'd feel safe betting against it. ITCZ is weak. SAL is dry where it counts. Basin synoptic is jumbled.

Right now it is, but it's not going to remain that way for much longer.

Plus the western Atlantic (especially the caribbean) is currently looking fairly good. Waters are warm, SAL is low and wind shear is weak in some crucial areas..and will likely be weakening in others. I think this will be a season where the home-grown storms are the ones that count the most.

[CoCo2]

A couple of weeks prior to the formation of Katrina in 2005 someone posted a graph/model that showed a whopper of a storm forming and going right through the GOM and up the Mississippi River. I remember it was female name who posted the graph/model and said something to the effect, "God help those in the path if this monster were to form" something like that. After Katrina formed and before we had to evacuate, I kept looking at that post and remembering she was right! Well since, I lost my home and computer in Katrina, I was in Plaquemines Parish where Katrina hit first and worst, I can't find the post. Anyone remember?

Check the past storms archive...might be there

Thanks I did, but since the model run was about 3-2 weeks prior to the formation of Katrina, the Forum folks didn't archive it, at least as far as I can tell. TreasureGal(?) said she thinks she remembers too. The model was animated and showed a small blob that churned into a large one right before slamming into the mouth of the Mississippi.

[Blown Away]

Am I reading the GFS correctly? The 06z showed a SFL direct hit and the 18z shows the system skirting up the SFL coast just offshore. I know this is 384 hours out, just trying to learn about the maps.

[Brent]

If I was a gambler I'd feel safe betting against it. ITCZ is weak. SAL is dry where it counts. Basin synoptic is jumbled.

Right now it is, but it's not going to remain that way for much longer.

Plus the western Atlantic (especially the caribbean) is currently looking fairly good. Waters are warm, SAL is low and wind shear is weak in some crucial areas..and will likely be weakening in others. I think this will be a season where the home-grown storms are the ones that count the most.

I agree, and let's remember that Katrina and Rita formed in the BAHAMAS. Wilma formed in the Western Caribbean, Charley and Dennis in the Eastern Caribbean. All homegrown powerful storms.

[Cyclone1]

1993 was basically all homegrown. However, chances are high that at least a few storm went unnoticed in the east Atl.

[skysummit]

Ok, the 18z GFS is coming out. In 96 - 102 hours, here comes Papa Smurf from Africa.

[Vortex]

h-138 GFS 18Z...Here she comes....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138l.gif

[skysummit]

I can't remember the last time the GFS held on to a storm across the Atlantic like this. I know it was last season, but for what storm?

[Steve H.]

Let's remember folks, that we're getting into the part of the season that will favor tropical development. There will be the typical ebb and flow of the troughs and ridges. I do not believe at this point that the GFS depiction of storm development across the basin are spurious lows, as this is getting into prime time. The current pattern is setting up to feature some expansive ridging across portions of the the Atlantic, as is typical for this time of year. The GFS depiction of development of tropical cyclones is certainly valid at this point. Where these features end up is not possible to detect at this point, even with the teleconnections. I believe that we may go through a rather active period beginning in the next 10 days. SAL is diminishing in the eastern and central Atlantic and I believe that we will see a rough 8-week pattern setting up after day 10. We should look at our storm preparation procedures now. Forewarned is forearmed.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 174 hours.As Steve mentioned,as the timeframe gets deeper and deeper into late August,what GFS shows are no longer spurious lows but the normal pattern of cyclongeneris in the deep tropics for the peak of the season.



18z GFS in 300 hours.More weaker with that low than the 12z that moves close to Florida.