Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[vacanechaser]

NRL down for me

yep... both sites...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Extremeweatherguy]

90L is also now up on wxunderground...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

[El Nino]

2 models are showing recurving to the South. Really strange !

[southerngale]

Can everyone else see this image? All I get is the word "Image"

Same with cyc's post above.



Edit: Edited to paste what I see:

Image

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can see it. It shows the model runs.

[Weatherfreak000]

That's still a possibility if the system remains weak and shallow for a longer period.

[RL3AO]

If it does take the track towards PR and the Northern Islands, would a storm be pushed west, or curve towards Bermuda or open sea?

[southerngale]

I realize I'm using up a post to say this, but everyone please read this thread... http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96883

[Cyclone1]

Ok, I'm a big refresher, I'll control myself.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFDL hasn't started yet.

[windstorm99]

2 models are showing recurving to the South. Really strange !

Those models turning it to the south are garbage....Look for the ECMWF which may have a better solution on things.

[miamicanes177]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This SO has Miami, FL and then the central gulf coast written all over it. Everyone here knows it deep down inside. I see it passing just slightly north of the Leewards and then riding north of Hispaniola and Cuba so as not to weaken it any. Then a bulldozer straight to Miami, FL and into the gulf passing over the loop current and making a B-line for the LA, MS, AL folks.

[southerngale]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This SO has Miami, FL and then the central gulf coast written all over it. Everyone here knows it deep down inside. I see it passing just slightly north of the Leewards and then riding north of Hispaniola and Cuba so as not to weaken it any. Then a bulldozer straight to Miami, FL and into the gulf passing over the loop current and making a B-line for the LA, MS, AL folks.

The smiley means you're kidding, right?

[Weatherfreak000]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This SO has Miami, FL and then the central gulf coast written all over it. Everyone here knows it deep down inside. I see it passing just slightly north of the Leewards and then riding north of Hispaniola and Cuba so as not to weaken it any. Then a bulldozer straight to Miami, FL and into the gulf passing over the loop current and making a B-line for the LA, MS, AL folks.

Interesting. Even more interesting I assume your from Miami right?

But I do agree, 7 days out this is SOOOOOOO the obvious solution. Let's just hope the EC people I disagree with don't cry about it.

[CrazyC83]

In my opinion, this so has recurve around 60W all over it...

[storms in NC]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This SO has Miami, FL and then the central gulf coast written all over it. Everyone here knows it deep down inside. I see it passing just slightly north of the Leewards and then riding north of Hispaniola and Cuba so as not to weaken it any. Then a bulldozer straight to Miami, FL and into the gulf passing over the loop current and making a B-line for the LA, MS, AL folks.

Interesting. Even more interesting I assume your from Miami right?

But I do agree, 7 days out this is SOOOOOOO the obvious solution. Let's just hope the EC people I disagree with don't cry about it.

I havn't seen the First east coast wish yet. Please show me

[miamicanes177]

The smiley means you're kidding, right?

Not at all dude, just check out the 12Z Euro.

[brunota2003]

I haven't seen the First east coast wish yet. Please show me

Indeed, I dont think most of us on the EC are going to wish for it, but, I think it will go somewhere in that 2,000 mile cone I made a few weeks back. Hopefully out to sea.

[wzrgirl1]

In my opinion, this so has recurve around 60W all over it...

I don't see one bit of evidence of that....are you just guessing...or do you know something we don't?

[WindRunner]

2 models are showing recurving to the South. Really strange !

Those models turning it to the south are garbage....Look for the ECMWF which may have a better solution on things.

Technically, all of these models are garbage . . . as none of them BAM models account for changing depth of the storm (they aren't designed to), and the LBAR is the LBAR.

EC/GFS/UKMET solution is probably the best bet now, but one also must make southward adjustments to that. It probably won't spin up as quick as the models are showing, and therefore a westward or slightly south of due west track is possible short-term until it gets some deep convection firing again.

Best bet for now is to wait until we have a closed circulation with moderate-to-deep convection . . . the models should paint a pretty good picture from there on out.