Area of convection (Former 92L)

[windstorm99]

In my opinion theres no doupt mr dean had something to do with 92L not developing....Adrian

[Comanche]

JB still talking about this in todays video, he has it moving across South FLA Friday and talks about the high in the NE making the area a very favorable place for development.

Don't like JB?? Then try Jim Rouiller, a promet at Planalytics. He thinks this area could form as well.

[Sjones]

So who was it that was making fun of Dr. Lyons when he stated it appeared conditions would become less favorable? How many pages did we have making fun of him or the weather channel?

I will admit to knocking Dr. Steve Lyons. I don't believe anything TWC states for the most part. Dr. Steve Lyons had said he wouldn't see anything come from Dean, and look what happened. If he was more accurate, I'd give him credit. Heck there are alot of mets on here that nailed it, even some people that weren't mets, however, TWC lagged on alot in the past 4 years, and pretty much followed others on their forecasts. Anyway that is all OT, so back to seeing what's gonna develop next.

[CrazyC83]

If this redevelops (as I think it will), would it keep 92L or become 93L?

[Blown Away]

If this redevelops (as I think it will), would it keep 92L or become 93L?

Not sure what you see that makes you think this will develop?

[storms in NC]

If this redevelops (as I think it will), would it keep 92L or become 93L?

It is toast from what I can see on Vis loop

[DESTRUCTION5]

Elsewhere in the tropics we are monitoring two areas of disturbed weather. One area is located just northeast of South America and the other is just north of Puerto Rico. The area northeast of South America is very disorganized with no coherent lower-level or upper-level feature. The disturbed area of weather north of Puerto Rico is the northern part of a westward moving tropical wave that is roughly along 65 west. A weak upper-level low located over Hispaniola is causing some shear over this system. Surface pressures have not changed much over this area. The upper-level low has caused the clouds associated with this feature to become arced over the southwest Atlantic. This sheared environment will relax tomorrow and Thursday. Computer models show only slight support for development in a day or two. If a lower-level feature can start spinning up, development could progress rather quickly by the end of the week. But the steering flow will force most of the feature over Cuba and Florida. Moisture from this feature will bring more clouds and some needed rainfall to parts of Florida late Wednesday through Friday.

From Accu:

[ronjon]

Convection increasing along the wave axis today during the diurnal minimum. Might be interesting to see what happens tonight. At least it now looks like the peninsula will get a good shot of rain Thursday and Friday.

[windstorm99]

melbourne-NWS

OPEN T-WAVE APPROACHING THE BAHAMA BANK WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX
FACTOR THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ATTM...THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED ON THE S SIDE OF THE SAME DLM ATLC RIDGE THAT HAS PUSHED
HURRICANE DEAN ON ITS RAPID W/NW TRACK ACROSS THE CARIB. THE WAVE
IS MOVING AT SUCH A STEADY PACE AND IS SO POORLY ORGANIZED THAT THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT
CROSSES THE FL PENINSULA IS RAPIDLY CLOSING.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 212109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE
MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT
450 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WWWW

[flwxwatcher]

>>So who was it that was making fun of Dr. Lyons when he stated it appeared conditions would become less favorable? How many pages did we have making fun of him or the weather channel?

Wasn't me. But I don't waste any time with The Weather Channel. There's too much real information out there that I don't need repackaged. I'm sure as an independent, Dr. Steve would be the man. He's pretty candid in his interviews with the tropical weather community. But under the auspices of TWC, their tropical updates are essentially worthless except when the web links to satellite images are down.

JMO. No knock on Dr. Steve, but I really REALLY don't care about the Weather Channel.

Steve

Steve..
I would have to agree with you. I remember when Dr Lyons was first with TWC he really spoke his mind. One storm sticks out, his call when then to be Hurricane Georges was in the far Eastern Atlantic a good 8-10 days away from the U.S. Dr Lyons was saying he thought this storm had a chance to make it all the way across the Atlantic and be a threat to the U.S and listed and showed reasons why he thought this.. Before that year was out he had pretty much been reduced to repeating TPC advisories.. Its a shame because he really knows the tropics!! and I agree as an independent he would really shine!!

[MusicCityMan]

I really wanted Felix from this 1.. lol.. Maybe it'll actually slightly slow down and strengthen a little..

[smw1981]

Is there no chance it will form in the GOM after exiting FL? Just wondered, since someone said they wished it would form from 92..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is there no chance it will form in the GOM after exiting FL? Just wondered, since someone said they wished it would form from 92..

Actually, I would say that chances are better for it to develop in the GOM. Upper level conditions should be more favorable, waters should be warmer and with a high to the NE of the system, something may try to spin up. We will just have to watch and see what happens. For now though, imminent development (over the next 24-48 hrs) is not expected.

[vaffie]

Is there no chance it will form in the GOM after exiting FL? Just wondered, since someone said they wished it would form from 92..

Actually, I would say that chances are better for it to develop in the GOM. Upper level conditions should be more favorable, waters should be warmer and with a high to the NE of the system, something may try to spin up. We will just have to watch and see what happens. For now though, imminent development (over the next 24-48 hrs) is not expected.

Agree. It's interesting to examine the GFS ensembles for the next 15 days--each one starts with different initial conditions and leads to a different outcome--it's very useful for looking for likely changes in the overall pattern. I just did, and my conclusion is that the following scenario seems likely, that this wave will end up in the northwestern Gulf and remain there from about day 5 to day 7. At that point it withers away or goes inland--the GFS doesn't develop it--but it doesn't mean that it won't develop--it will have some opportunity to do so. Additionally, most of the ensemble runs have a great deal of convection in the western and central Caribbean from about day 7 to day 12, and some of them close off a low that heads northwestwards across the Yucatan into the Gulf. Anyway, just something to consider in the days to come.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSP ... ml#picture

[HeeBGBz]

Is there some kind of circulation around 17n 73w?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some moderate convection has flared
up near 75W and 25N along this wave.
I can't rule out a depression yet.

[boca]

Wierd shape to this tropical wave. The front approaching the Bahamas while the back arcs back just east of Puerto Rico. Is it possible the back end of this wave by PR might develop?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

[HeeBGBz]

With the Goes doing the two-step, it's hard to tell what it's doing.

[CrazyC83]

Is there no chance it will form in the GOM after exiting FL? Just wondered, since someone said they wished it would form from 92..

Actually, I would say that chances are better for it to develop in the GOM. Upper level conditions should be more favorable, waters should be warmer and with a high to the NE of the system, something may try to spin up. We will just have to watch and see what happens. For now though, imminent development (over the next 24-48 hrs) is not expected.

That is my thinking too.