Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[windstorm99]

Future track of this wave on the current 72hr surface map agreeing with the 12z GFS?Maybe.

['CaneFreak]

Look at 9n-34w where the barbs are turning in a weak circule.Is a weak circulation at this time.

Are those weak westerly winds I see on the south side of the circulation? I think so...HMMMMMMMMMMMMM....seems as though this may get some attention over the next several days.

[Zardoz]

Fairly healthy-looking convection at the moment:

GOES East Rainbow

[tolakram]

I think the key here is the low level circulation. Like I asked before, what was the last wave to have a LLC that did not develop? The previous waves did not have this kind of signature on quikscat. Quikscat just reads the winds, it doesn't -find- things.

In my opinion the fairly consistent convection and the circulation evident on quikscat indicates this thing has a fair chance to develop.

[GeneratorPower]

This one is probably a "go". Just going with climo here, you will probably see some attention focused here in the next few days.

[gatorcane]

oh boy...all those season cancel posters may be eating crow after this invest.

I do say it is a go also. You can see some deeper convection trying to build near the "LLC"...

Here we go...

[skysummit]

oh boy...all those season cancel posters may be eating crow after this invest.

I do say it is a go also. You can see some deeper convection trying to build near the "LLC"...

Here we go...

Season Cancel posts??? Wait...no one HERE said that, did they? LOL

[AtlanticWind]

This one is probably a "go". Just going with climo here, you will probably see some attention focused here in the next few days.

I agree , A healthy wave coming into the peak of season with low shear has a very good chance

[GeneratorPower]

The steering current setup is going to be different with this one, for sure. The high pressure that has been a permanent feature over the SE US is breaking.

[skysummit]

The steering current setup is going to be different with this one, for sure. The high pressure that has been a permanent feature over the SE US is breaking.

You're right. I was just about to post something along those lines. The "heat dome" is falling apart. I don't see this one being a low lat, west runner....that's IF it develops (which I believe it will).

[windstorm99]

The steering current setup is going to be different with this one, for sure. The high pressure that has been a permanent feature over the SE US is breaking.

Any Promets thoughts on steering currents the next 3-5 days?

[gatorcane]

The steering current setup is going to be different with this one, for sure. The high pressure that has been a permanent feature over the SE US is breaking.

Any Promets thoughts on steering currents the next 3-5 days?

I will say it is unlikely we would see another westrunner similar to Dean. In my opinion, that was a rare situation for a Aug. A system that strong usually finds a weakness somewhere

[RL3AO]

This would not be a Southern Mexico storm, that is for sure.

[GeneratorPower]

Gatorcane, yes it was a rare situation. Mike Watkins explained that a west running track had happened only one time previously in over 100 years. That was in 1912, I believe. Dean took an absolutely incredible, oddball track climatologically speaking.

Just look at the CLIPPER (climo-only) model projections for Dean. (Sorry, don't have link.)

[gatorcane]

the strong wave is being steered by a strong ridge of high pressure to the north. So it will go west for the next several days. After that the situation becomes more unclear.....based on the current setup it would take similar track to Dean. But the likelyhood of this steering setup maintaining for another 10-14 days is very small in my opinion.

[Derek Ortt]

steering looks primarily west to WNW, probably a little north of Dean and more toward the northern Islands

[GeneratorPower]

Derek, any guesses after that?

[skysummit]

steering looks primarily west to WNW, probably a little north of Dean and more toward the northern Islands

Yea, Luis...this one is one you may TRULY need to keep an eye on.

[ConvergenceZone]

The steering current setup is going to be different with this one, for sure. The high pressure that has been a permanent feature over the SE US is breaking.

You're right. I was just about to post something along those lines. The "heat dome" is falling apart. I don't see this one being a low lat, west runner....that's IF it develops (which I believe it will).

Does that mean this will be a fish?

[windstorm99]

steering looks primarily west to WNW, probably a little north of Dean and more toward the northern Islands

Thanks Derek! Not what i wanted to here for south florida but of course its still very early in the ball game if theres one out there at all in the coming days.